Bitcoin Mining Revealed: Winning a Block for an Independent Miner is Like Winning the Lottery

Author: Loke Choon Khei, Coingecko

Compiled by Felix, PANews

Today, Bitcoin mining is more competitive than ever, with the difficulty exceeding 129 trillion units, reaching an all-time high. For an independent miner, the chance of success is perhaps only 1 in 2800, or approximately once every eight years. Despite this, there have been reports of successful independent mining in 2025, with each lucky individual miner pocketing hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of Bitcoin.

Key Points

For a solo miner, it takes about 860,000 kWh of electricity to mine one Bitcoin.
Individual mining success is extremely rare, but still possible; recent winners in 2025 received block rewards worth between $330,000 and $373,000.
Bitcoin's mining difficulty automatically adjusts every 2016 blocks (approximately every two weeks) to maintain a target block generation time of 10 minutes.
The cost of electricity to mine one Bitcoin varies widely around the world: from as low as $1,324 in Iran to over $321,112 in Ireland.
The current block reward is 3.125 bitcoins (which will be halved after the April 2024 halving), which is worth about $350,000 to $400,000 at current prices.

Bitcoin Block Rewards: Understanding the Reward Mechanism

Before diving into the topic of mining difficulty, it’s important to understand what miners are competing for. Think of Bitcoin mining as a global lottery that takes place every 10 minutes, with winners receiving a generous prize.

Halving effect

Bitcoin has a built-in scarcity mechanism called the halving, which occurs approximately every four years and reduces the mining reward. When Bitcoin launched in 2009, miners received 50 bitcoins for each block they mined. Since then, this reward has been halved several times:

2009-2012: 50 Bitcoins per block
2012-2016: 25 bitcoins per block
2016-2020: 12.5 Bitcoins per block
2020-2024: 6.25 Bitcoins per block
2024-2028: 3.125 bitcoins per block

The current block reward is 3.125 BTC, which is worth approximately $373,000 based on the current price of Bitcoin.

The halving puts deflationary pressure on Bitcoin’s supply, increasing its scarcity while also generally reducing selling pressure from Bitcoin miners.

Bitcoin’s Difficulty Adjustment: The Great Balancer

Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment acts like an automated referee, ensuring the game remains fair regardless of how many players join or leave. Understanding this mechanism is crucial to understanding why Bitcoin mining has become increasingly resource-intensive over time.

Difficulty Adjustment Mechanism

Imagine Bitcoin as a giant global puzzle-solving competition where a new puzzle must be solved precisely every 10 minutes. If the puzzle starts being solved too quickly (because more miners join), Bitcoin automatically makes it harder. If the puzzle is solved too slowly (because miners leave), Bitcoin makes it easier.

The process is as follows:

Every 2016 blocks (approximately every two weeks), Bitcoin measures the average mining time over the previous 2016 blocks.
If the average mining time is less than 10 minutes, the difficulty increases.
If the average mining time exceeds 10 minutes, the difficulty will decrease.
Each adjustment can be up to 25%.

This self-regulating mechanism ensures that whether there are 1,000 or 1,000,000 miners competing, the rate of new bitcoins generated remains predictable at approximately one block every 10 minutes.

Record mining difficulty in 2025

According to Coinwarz's Bitcoin mining difficulty chart, on August 3, 2025, the difficulty reached a new all-time record of 129.7 quadrillion units, a significant increase compared to previous years. Over the past 30 days, the difficulty has increased by 1.63%, and over the past 90 days, the increase has reached 6.61%.

To put this in perspective, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty was only about 1 trillion in early 2017. Today’s difficulty of over 129 trillion means that the computational difficulty of mining has increased by more than 129 times compared to eight years ago.

Why do difficulty adjustments increase resource requirements?

As more miners join the network and are equipped with more powerful equipment, the difficulty automatically increases to maintain a 10-minute block generation time. This triggers an "arms race" in which miners must constantly upgrade their equipment and increase their computing power to maintain their probability of generating a block.

Think of it this way: if you're running a race, and the finish line moves back every time more runners join, you have to keep speeding up to maintain your chances of winning. This is why Bitcoin mining requires such enormous resources today, and why, while it was possible to mine Bitcoin with an ordinary computer in 2008, you'd need a warehouse full of specialized mining rigs to have the same chance today.

The resources required for Bitcoin mining today

Now that we understand why Bitcoin mining is becoming increasingly difficult, let's examine the vast resources required to compete in today's mining environment. The difficulty adjustment mechanism just discussed is the root cause of these significant increases in resource requirements.

Computing power: your computing power

Hashrate (the number of cryptographic calculations your mining rig can perform per second) is your ticket to the mining race. Today, the Bitcoin network's total hashrate has climbed to over 950 exahashes per second, breaking all-time highs year after year.

The growth of Bitcoin network computing power over the years. For reference:

 Source: Blockchain.com

1 MH/s = 1 million calculations per second
1 TH/s = 1 trillion calculations per second
1 PH/s = 1000 TH/s
1 EH/s= 1000 PH/s

In today's competitive environment, a modern laptop CPU might achieve around 1 to 10 megahashes per second (MH/s, or millions of calculations per second) when mining Bitcoin, with a near-zero probability of finding a block. In comparison, a standard ASIC miner like the Antminer S21 can generate 200 TH/s (or 200 trillion calculations per second), which is approximately 20 million times more computing power than a laptop.

Hardware requirements

Modern Bitcoin mining relies entirely on ASIC miners (Application-Specific Integrated Circuits), which are computers designed specifically for Bitcoin mining.

Popular models include:

Antminer S19 XP: hashrate of approximately 140 TH/s, power consumption of approximately 3,010 watts:

Antminer S21: ~200 TH/s, ~3,550 watts of power consumption:

WhatsMiner M60S: ~172 TH/s, ~3,400 watts of power consumption:

Think of ASIC miners as specialized race cars that can't do anything besides mine Bitcoin, but they do so very efficiently compared to general-purpose computers.

Power Challenges

By 2025, a single miner is expected to require 860,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity to mine one Bitcoin. This is equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of approximately 80 American households. However, this is a network-wide average, and the costs for individual miners vary significantly depending on efficiency and electricity prices.

The difference in electricity costs for independent miners around the world to mine 1 Bitcoin in 2025:

Cheapest Country: Iran, $1,324 per Bitcoin (although cryptocurrency mining faces legal restrictions)
United States: Over $107,000 per Bitcoin
Most expensive: Ireland, $321,112 per Bitcoin

The difference is staggering: an Iranian miner would need the same amount of electricity to mine over 240 bitcoins as an Irish miner would need to mine just one bitcoin.

However, this doesn't mean all Bitcoin mining operations should be relocated to Iran, as electricity costs are only one factor to consider. For example, Iran's power grid may not actually be able to support commercial mining. Furthermore, crypto mining is illegal in Iran.

Industrial-scale operations

Electricity regulations are not uniform for large-scale commercial operations. Large mining companies like Riot Bitcoin can pay as little as 2.8 cents per kilowatt-hour, while residential electricity prices can exceed 20 cents per kilowatt-hour. This industrial-scale advantage explains the dominance of large mining farms on the network.

Professional mining facilities can also benefit from:

Economies of scale in electricity contracts
Optimized cooling system for suitable climates
Direct partnerships with device manufacturers
Professional maintenance and operation experience

Riot Platform's Bitcoin mining facility in Rockdale, Texas:

Success probability of independent mining

Solo mining in 2025 is essentially like playing the lottery, with the odds of success depending on the ratio of the hashrate you control to the total network hashrate. The difficulty adjustment mechanism discussed earlier directly affects these odds: as the difficulty increases, the odds of success decrease accordingly.

Mathematical Reality

A miner with a hashing power of 1 petaflop (PH/s) has a probability of solving a block every ten minutes of about 1 in 650,000. In everyday terms, this is equivalent to the probability of landing on heads twenty times in a row by flipping a coin.

Probability example:

Bitaxe miner at 480 GH/s (Gigahash/second): The probability of mining a block per day is 1/1,000,000.
2.3 PH/s configuration: There is a 1/2,800 probability of mining a block per day, and an average of once every 8 years.
Large-scale industrial mining farms (100+ PH/s): expected to produce multiple blocks per year

Independent Mining Success Stories in 2025

Despite the slim chances of success, independent miners continue to create surprises:

July 26, 2025: An independent Bitcoin miner successfully mined block 907283, receiving a block reward of 3.125 bitcoins, worth $372,773, plus $3,436 in transaction fees.

July 4, 2025: A solo miner using only 2.3 PB of hash power successfully solved block 903,883, worth $350,000.

August 17, 2025: A solo Bitcoin miner overcame numerous difficulties and mined block 910,440 through the Solo CK pool, receiving a reward of $371,000.

March 10, 2025: An independent miner using a 480 GH/s Bitaxe small mining machine solved 887,212 blocks and earned approximately $257,963.

The role of independent mining pools

Many successful independent miners use services like Solo CK Pool, which allows individuals to mine independently while using shared infrastructure. If an independent miner mines a block through Solo CK Pool, they retain the entire block reward. Since its creation, Solo CK Pool has facilitated 305 independent blocks.

While independent miners are few in number, they play an important role in maintaining Satoshi Nakamoto’s vision of a decentralized Bitcoin.

Why still mining independently?

Why do people persist in solo mining despite the extremely low odds? Several factors contribute to this decision:

Ideological reason: Some miners believe that independent mining is more conducive to the decentralization of Bitcoin than joining a large mining pool.
Lottery mentality: Unless you control a hashrate of tens of PH/s, solo mining is essentially a matter of luck, and this level of hashrate is impractical for non-commercial operations. However, those who already own ASIC mining rigs might be able to try their luck for fun.
Tax and Investment Strategy: The advantage of Bitcoin mining is the ability to depreciate 100% of the hardware cost and potentially receive generous tax credits.
Geographic/industrial advantages: Some users may have access to cheap or even free electricity, making it feasible or low-cost to participate in this sweepstakes.

Overall, the general consensus is that Bitcoin mining is currently primarily a commercial operation involving mining farms, electricity trading, and, as Bitcoin becomes more popular, there may be government involvement in the future.

Conclusion: The Reality of Bitcoin Mining Today

Bitcoin mining in 2025 presents a paradoxical phenomenon. On the one hand, the network has never been more secure and robust, difficulty has reached new highs, and professional institutions have invested billions of dollars in infrastructure. On the other hand, independent miners still occasionally strike digital gold, earning hundreds of thousands of dollars in a single transaction.

By 2025, it will be extremely difficult and financially challenging for individuals to mine Bitcoin on their own. Success requires either exceptional luck, extremely cheap electricity, or both. While the dream of "strike digital gold" persists, the reality is that Bitcoin mining has essentially become an industrial-scale operation.

For most people interested in Bitcoin, buying and holding the cryptocurrency directly offers better risk-adjusted returns than independent mining. However, for those with access to cheap electricity, efficient hardware, and a high risk tolerance, independent mining remains an attractive, if unlikely, path to potentially large returns.

Recent successful independent mining cases have strongly demonstrated that individual participation remains crucial in Bitcoin's decentralized network. Although the probability of independent mining success is extremely small, it is not zero. In the world of Bitcoin, this mathematical possibility keeps the dream alive.

FAQs

1. Can ordinary people mine Bitcoin?

While independent mining is technically possible, the odds of winning are incredibly slim, like winning the lottery. However, individuals with a few ASIC miners can consider joining a mining pool—a pool where participants pool their mining resources and share the profits. For the average person, mining Bitcoin in a pool is a viable option, freeing them from the constraints of Bitcoin's "lottery" mechanism.

What is the difference between solo mining and pool mining?

Independent mining: You can get 100% of the block reward (currently 3.125 BTC), but the success rate is extremely low.

Pool mining: You combine your computing power with other miners and share the profits proportionally. This results in smaller but more stable and predictable returns. Most miners choose pools for their stable returns.

How long does it take to mine 1 Bitcoin?

It all depends on the hashrate. For example, with a hashrate of 2.3 PH/s, and assuming the mining difficulty remains constant (in reality, difficulty typically increases over time), a block (receiving 3.125 bitcoins) would be mined approximately every 8 years.

Can I mine Bitcoin with my laptop?

That’s no longer possible. Due to the Bitcoin network’s difficulty adjustment mechanism, Bitcoin mining has become an industrialized process that now requires specialized computers called ASIC miners. Regular computers can no longer compete with ASIC miners, and even those lucky solo miners who have recently found success use specialized ASIC mining equipment.

How much does it cost to mine 1 Bitcoin?

Costs vary widely depending on location and equipment configuration.

Equipment: A decent ASIC miner costs $2,000 to $15,000 each
Electricity costs: The price of one Bitcoin ranges from $1,324 in Iran to $321,112 in Ireland
Average U.S. electricity bill alone: Over $107,000

(Electricity costs are calculated based on solo mining. Pool miners face different economics, and their payouts are smaller but more frequent.)

How much electricity is needed to mine 1 Bitcoin?

By 2025, approximately 860,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) will be needed, enough to power about 80 American homes for a year. (Electricity costs are based on solo mining. Pool miners face different economics, with smaller but more frequent payouts.)

Will Bitcoin mining still be profitable in 2025?

Profitability depends heavily on a variety of factors, such as electricity costs, hardware efficiency, Bitcoin prices, and network difficulty. If enough of these factors are in your favor, Bitcoin mining will be profitable in 2025. Overall, large mining companies like Riot are expected to be profitable in 2025, based on publicly available balance sheets.