By Ben Fairbank

Compilation | Vernacular Blockchain

A friend recently described the current cryptocurrency market as a "broken record"—Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading sideways, while altcoins are hitting resistance levels for what feels like an eternity, with many hitting far more than the typical three times before a confirmation or failure. If you're new to the market, the silence can be deafening. After all the headlines about ETFs, institutional influx, and the halving cycle, why hasn't the altcoin bull run arrived yet?

Veterans of previous cycles understand that these dull times are a time to build wealth, not to cash out. What feels like an eternity to newcomers remains a period of fear and panic for veterans, who know time is running out to finalize their positions. In 2017 and 2021, we witnessed a surge of capital into Bitcoin, which then flowed into Ethereum, then exploded across altcoins within weeks. This time, the process is much slower, with a much larger pool of participants. Understanding why markets stagnate, and why this is a feature, not a bug, could mean the difference between increasing your holdings in the biggest bull market of your lifetime or handing them over to the whales. Your actions now will determine the ultimate outcome.

01. Four-year cyclical rhythm: Why is it so late this time?

Cryptocurrency bull markets follow a remarkably reliable rotational pattern. Historically, there have been four phases: Bitcoin leads the way, Ethereum begins to outperform, funds rotate into large-cap altcoins, and finally, a frenzied "altcoin season" propels small-cap coins into a parabolic rally. These phases typically complete within 18 months of the Bitcoin halving. I've always believed that history is the best teacher; a pattern is a pattern until it ceases to be.

• In 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin and most large-cap cryptocurrencies reached new highs approximately 2-3 months earlier than now. According to Glassnode's cycle comparison, Bitcoin should have peaked by now, but it has not.
• I've said many times that the longer it takes, the higher the gains, but am I right? The only certainty in life is that no one knows the answer. However, I see this as the sinking of the Titanic, and the Titanic is today's traditional monetary system. Bitcoin and altcoins are the lifeboats, and more people are seeking to board than ever before. The difference is that retail investors are men, the group least likely to secure safe passage. The analogy may be crude, but I think it's apt—the beauty of a theory is that only time will tell, and history shows us that this is the way it works.
• Cycle extension theorists point out that each bull market lasts longer than the previous one, approximately 24, 28 and 33 months respectively. The current cycle may extend to 37 months, and the next major top may be in December 2025.
• Three indicators worth watching are: BTC dominance falling below 60%, the ETH/BTC exchange rate reaching 0.058, and a Fed rate cut. Taking the September 17th rate cut (currently with an 87% probability) into account, a theoretical trigger could occur around September 10th. Assuming the past three altcoin seasons lasted 8, 10, and 14 weeks, respectively, the 14-week duration would extend to December 24th (if it starts on September 10th). I predict a date because topping is dangerous, and setting a target exit price and date is crucial. Therefore, I've set December 24th for myself, regardless of whether I'm right or wrong.

Those accustomed to the adrenaline of 2017 or 2021 will find this lag frustrating, but it’s also why the next rally could be spectacular. We’re in that sweet spot between complacency and optimism, a rubber band that’s taut but not yet broken.

02. Signals from the altcoin market

The total market capitalization of all altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum (TOTAL3) has been in a four-year compression cycle since 2021. The chart shows rising bottoms, indicating persistent buying pressure against overhead resistance that repeatedly refuses to break through. Each blow weakens the ceiling, and the final breakout is often violent. Some coins have already hit the ceiling eight times, which often indicates that "big players are quietly boarding the lifeboat."

On-chain data also confirms this tension:

• 70% of the top 50 altcoins currently outperform Bitcoin on a monthly basis, which is a strong signal of capital rotation. The numbers don’t lie.
• Bitcoin’s dominance rate fell below key support for the first time since late 2024, which historically has been one of the starting guns for the altcoin season.
• Analysts monitoring the "OTHERS" chart (market capitalization of all currencies outside the top ten) found that it replicated the sharp recovery pattern after the decline in 2024. If Bitcoin and the S&P 500 break through together, the altcoin sector may rush to $570 billion.

But the breakout hasn't arrived yet. Why? Macro headwinds are dampening risk appetite, and liquidity is scarce. This is true for retail investors, but we're seeing companies like MicroStrategy shifting their treasuries into Bitcoin, and some into Ethereum. This is a truly significant reversal, and we wonder how many more signals people need.

03. Why do macroeconomic factors suppress the market?

Cryptocurrencies are no longer isolated assets. Binance research shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional bonds has continued to strengthen since 2020. During the 2022 interest rate hike cycle, Bitcoin and bond prices fell together, demonstrating that cryptocurrencies are now behaving like high-beta risk assets, sensitive to liquidity conditions. This is why I say this is the last major bull run. Imagine if this bull run unfolds as I predict, it will make the crypto market impossible to ignore; it will become part of the mainstream.

The bond market experienced a turbulent period in the first and second quarters of 2025: the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped from 3.8% to nearly 4.6%, the MOVE index (bond market volatility) soared to 139, and high-yield credit spreads widened by 202 basis points. Macro drivers include tariff uncertainty, stubborn inflation, and record government debt issuance. Binance analysts warned that continued macro uncertainty suggests range-bound trading, and a soft landing scenario could trigger a rebound. Essentially, we are waiting for a trigger.

These headwinds are forcing even cryptocurrency believers to monitor the Fed's schedule. Bitcoin has been stuck in the $102,000-$115,000 range for months. As long as it holds $100,000, the bull market structure will be complete. This is why a Fed rate cut could be a key turning point—the injection of liquidity could be the catalyst for the next wave. I believe the ETH/BTC ratio doesn't necessarily need to reach 0.058 this time, as currencies like SOL are taking more market share. The market is evolving, and so must our understanding.

04. Why does this cycle feel different?

Starting later, the stage is bigger

Glassnode data suggests we're several months behind the previous cycle. Veteran trader Peter Brandt places a 30% probability on Bitcoin's peak, while analyst Colin Talks Crypto believes the cycle is extending, pointing to a 37-month timeline. The divergence itself reflects the inclusion of new variables: macroeconomic policies, ETFs, and corporate funding.

Selective altcoin season

Miles Deutscher's AI-powered "Altcoin Rally Score" found that early-cycle altcoins surged by thousands of percentage points, but this time, most underperformed Bitcoin. He attributes this to tight monetary policy, institutional preference for BTC, Ethereum's struggle to outperform BTC, and waning retail interest. His model awaits the alignment of four signals: a decline in BTC dominance, a breakout in ETH/BTC, a rising altcoin index, and improved retail sentiment. When this aligns, he anticipates a shorter, more selective rally focused on real-world application sectors. However, MeMe coins remain dominant, with application being a lagging indicator.

Market-wide compression

The TOTAL3 chart shows a four-year consolidation for altcoins. Altcoin dominance reached a cyclical high on August 14th, but fell short of a new all-time high, and has since fallen below $1.6 trillion. Technical analysis suggests the correction may end somewhere between $1.35 trillion and $1.43 trillion, and small-cap coins may face pressure before breaking out in Q4.

Evolution of investor behavior

While previous altcoin seasons began with retail FOMO fueled by Dogecoin imitations, today's altcoin seasons may be driven by more rational catalysts: the tokenization of real-world assets, institutional ETH staking, and regulated ETFs. Unlike the frenzy of 2021, the supply of new coins and regulatory scrutiny mean that the rebound is likely to be sector-specific rather than widespread.

My personal view is that the crypto market is like a dish, starting with just three simple ingredients. Each bull run adds new ingredients, making the flavor complex and bringing unexpected twists. As an early adopter, I look forward to seeing people truly build products and companies that align with value. At that moment, the "magic" of the crypto market may disappear. Once you're in this space, it's hard to leave, but I'm growing tired of the current state and measurement methods. I look forward to continuing to build on technology, rather than reacting to token prices and small investors, who rarely align with company goals.

05. Why does it feel so slow?

Because this is a buildup of momentum before a spring. Altcoin seasons rarely begin during Bitcoin's price discovery period; they typically occur after Bitcoin surges over 200% and then moves sideways, triggering a rotation into the market. Yieldfund notes that altcoin seasons typically begin when large-cap altcoins like Ethereum and Solana begin to outperform and Bitcoin's dominance rate falls below 54%.

This rotation is quietly underway: 70% of the top altcoins have outperformed BTC, new Ethereum ETFs and staking yields are attracting institutional inflows, and Bitcoin's dominance rate is declining. However, macroeconomic pressures are keeping prices trapped in a narrow range. The perceived slowdown is due to the ongoing simmering tensions. When liquidity eventually returns—whether through a Fed rate cut, an S&P 500 breakout, or regulatory clarity for crypto ETFs—the compressed energy in the TOTAL3 and OTHERS indices could be released in weeks, not months.

We've all seen this happen. I'm waiting for a lot of news saying, "I was about to buy, and suddenly it went up. Is it too late now? What should I buy?" Bull markets always catch people off guard, and the current calm will surprise many people.

06. Key points to observe when the fuse is burning

• Bitcoin support and dominance: As long as BTC holds $100,000 and dominance continues to decline, the rotation scenario remains. A breakout above 60% often marks the beginning of an altcoin season.
• Ethereum/BTC Ratio: A breakout in ETH/BTC would signal the second phase of the rotation. Ethereum is currently strengthening due to ETF inflows and institutional adoption. Previously, a breakout of 0.058 was required, but now it's only at 0.039 (which I consider less significant in this phase).
• Macro catalysts: The Federal Reserve's September meeting, bond market volatility, and tariffs will determine the timing of the return of liquidity. Uncertainty means volatility, and clear signals will trigger risk appetite.
• Altcoin Indicators: Focus on altcoin rally signals (Bitcoin share, ETH/BTC, Altcoin Index, retail sentiment) and mid-cap momentum signs on the OTHERS chart.

07. Summary

The current calm isn't a sign of market weakness, but rather a sign of compression. Four years of altcoin consolidation, delayed cyclical peaks, and macro headwinds have fostered enormous potential. A rotational playbook among Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins is slowly unfolding. The difference this time is the scale of participation: regulated ETFs, corporate treasuries, real-world assets, and tens of millions more users. When the rubber band breaks, it could be the final explosive rotation I've hinted at, rewarding those who patiently weather the boredom.

Don't give away chips out of impatience. The market is quiet because the band is warming up. Be seated when the music starts, but don't forget to leave before it stops. Greed kills, and fear keeps you from ever getting in. Time is running out.

Original link: https://c.c1nd.cn/nisYK

Original title: Beyond the Chop, Why the Boring Phase Hides a Generational Crypto Boom

Originally Posted by Ben Fairbank

Compiled by: Vernacular Blockchain