Senior researchers predict: We are currently in the middle of a bull market, with a target price of $500,000 for BTC

A joint report by senior Bitcoin researcher Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research suggests Bitcoin is in the mid-stage of a historic bull market, with a potential price target exceeding $500,000 in the coming years.
Key indicators include strong holder conviction, with whales holding rather than selling, and Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) data showing 50%-70% of Bitcoin supply in unrealized profit, signaling healthy optimism.
Potential risks like major hacks or macro crashes are deemed unlikely to derail the bull run, citing past resilience (e.g., Bitfinex hack in 2016 had minimal price impact).
The report advises holding only Bitcoin, dismissing altcoins as inferior due to lacking Bitcoin’s network effects, security, and monetary purity, likening Bitcoin to the internet’s foundational protocol.
Demand for Bitcoin as a "long-term value store" is driven by inflation, fiscal deficits, and shifts away from traditional hedges like bonds and real estate.
U.S. pro-Bitcoin policies (e.g., strategic reserves, ETFs holding ~1.4M BTC) are accelerating adoption, prompting global responses.
Recommended allocations: 5% as "insurance," 10% for speculative hedging, and 20%-50% for high-conviction "early retirement" strategies.
Multi-signature custody is highlighted as optimal for balancing security and autonomy.
The bull market is fueled by institutional adoption, macro tailwinds, and holder belief, with the current phase seen as "mid-cycle," not a peak. Bitcoin’s role as a store of value could reshape global finance in the coming years.

A new report jointly released by Tuur Demeester, a senior Bitcoin researcher, and Adamant Research pointed out that the current market stage may be a "steady and strong" period for Bitcoin, that is, it is in the mid-term stage of what may become "one of the most significant bull markets" in Bitcoin's history.

The report, titled "How to Position for a Bitcoin Bull Market," led by Bitcoin economist and early investor Tuur Demeester, predicts that Bitcoin still has the potential for a 4-10x price increase from its current level, meaning the target price will exceed $500,000 in the next few years:

“We believe we are in the middle of what could be one of the most significant bull markets in Bitcoin’s history. Based on the current range, we believe there is still room for 4-10x appreciation, which would put the price target above $500,000.”

Several indicators support this view, with on-chain trends suggesting strong conviction among senior holders. For example, the report notes that large investors (whales) are holding on rather than selling. Changes in net holdings among holders show no signs of large-scale capitulation since 2025, a behavior typically associated with market peaks.

"Over the past two years, when Bitcoin retested its previous all-time highs during the turmoil of the US election, whales have moved some tokens. But throughout 2025, the net daily transfer volume by holders never exceeded 100,000, a scale that historically typically indicates a sell-off in the late stages of a frenzy."

Another metric, Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), shows that 50%-70% of Bitcoin's supply is in unrealized profit, which is more consistent with healthy medium-term optimism rather than late-stage frenzy.

The report lists catalysts that could trigger a pullback, but believes that the risk of these factors ending the bull market is limited. For example, a major hacker attack could hit market confidence, but past cases have shown that it has little impact on Bitcoin prices:

“We believe that only in extreme circumstances could a hack curb or end the Bitcoin bull run. When 120,000 Bitcoins were stolen from Bitfinex in 2016, the price was barely affected.”

In addition, the distribution of Mt. Gox and bankrupt platform tokens was quickly absorbed by market demand, and the liquidation of 80,000 bitcoins in July 2025 only caused the price to fluctuate by 4%.

Coinbase reportedly holds approximately 10% of the Bitcoin supply, which could pose a centralization risk. However, ETF issuers have begun diversifying their custody options, and with the US government actively incorporating Bitcoin into its financial policies, the likelihood of custodial assets being seized is low.

While a macro crash could trigger short-term volatility, the report predicts that Bitcoin will continue to outperform commodities and inflation in the long run.

The report is a radical departure from its 2015 recommendation to allocate a small amount of money to altcoins, recommending instead holding only Bitcoin and avoiding diversifying funds into projects that are “far inferior to Bitcoin” and lack Bitcoin’s network effects, security model, and monetary purity.

The author compares Bitcoin's role to the underlying protocol of the Internet, believing it to be the single dominant protocol, and predicts that competitors such as Ethereum, Ripple, and Cardano will gradually lose relevance.

Tuur Demeester specifically identified the demand for "long-term value storage" as the core engine of Bitcoin's current and future growth. This demand is driven by multiple factors: persistent inflation, fiscal deficits, the loss of bonds' decades-long safe-haven status, the declining attractiveness of real estate as a hedge, and a rotation of capital into assets with high liquidity and low counterparty risk.

After El Salvador designated Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, the United States accelerated its adoption under the Trump administration's pro-Bitcoin policies, including the establishment of a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, the passage of supportive legislation such as the GENIUS Act, and the rapid popularity of Bitcoin spot ETFs (currently holding approximately 1.4 million BTC).

The report notes that the United States’ aggressive actions are pushing other countries to explore their own Bitcoin strategies: “These strong supportive attitudes are beginning to trigger global chain reactions.”

Regarding the appropriate allocation of Bitcoin by investors, the report considers factors such as risk tolerance and strength of conviction. According to the report, a 5% allocation can serve as "insurance" against systemic risk; an increase to 10% is considered a speculative hedge within a diversified portfolio; and an allocation of 20%-50% indicates strong conviction, viewing it as an "early retirement" strategy.

In terms of custody, the report believes that collaborative multi-signature settings are the best option for balancing autonomy and operational security, especially for new entrants.

Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research believe that Bitcoin's current bull run is far from over, and institutional adoption, macroeconomic tailwinds and the firm belief of holders have laid the foundation for potential historic gains.

We are currently in a "mid-cycle," not a peak. If Bitcoin lives up to its promise as a store of value, it could redefine its place in the global financial system in the coming years.