Compiled by Tim, PANews
Where are we in this bull market cycle?
It is always fascinating to watch how quickly market sentiment changes.
We just went through this: everyone on Crypto Twitter was optimistic about Ethereum, and overnight many people turned bearish.
I also want to share some thoughts on where the market is headed in the future.
Let’s zoom in and analyze it with data.
First, let’s review some history. Here’s a chart showing Bitcoin’s price performance during previous bull cycles:
If you study past cycles, you’ll notice that the timing of Bitcoin cycle tops has been pretty consistent:
- In 2021, Bitcoin peaked in November
- In 2017, Bitcoin peaked in December
- In 2013, Bitcoin peaked in December
Every cycle peak to date has occurred in the fourth quarter of the year following the halving (2013, 2017, 2021, and now 2025).
Another interesting observation is that September is typically Bitcoin’s weakest month, while October has historically been one of its strongest.
While many are panicking right now due to the recent plunge, as you can see, it’s not uncommon for markets to experience a plunge around September (end of Q3).
If anything, it's consistent with what's happened in the past.
Does this mean this cycle will be exactly like the previous ones? Not at all. While history doesn’t repeat itself, it does rhyme.
I have mixed feelings about September given what happened in previous cycles, but I believe Q4 will be a good quarter for cryptocurrencies as the final stages of every bull market cycle have historically been exceptional in terms of gains.
Besides seasonality, there are other factors that lead me to believe that the fourth quarter will see an uptick.
A rate cut is coming (for real this time)
Let’s put crypto aside for a moment: macroeconomics matters.
According to Polymarket, there's a 64% chance the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. Why is this significant?
Because when central banks lower interest rates, borrowing becomes cheaper. Falling bond yields can also prompt investors to turn to riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
Historically, large interest rate cuts have been bullish for risky assets.
Crypto Treasury firms are continuously acquiring large amounts of cryptocurrency
The amount of funds is staggering.
According to data from www.strategicethreserve.xyz, crypto treasury firms purchased over 532,000 ETH (over $2 billion at current value) last week.
Please note that a collateralized Ethereum ETF has not yet been approved.
Source: www.strategicethreserve.xyz
$2 billion in weekly buying is a huge positive for ETH and altcoins.
Crypto treasuries will eventually run out of money, but given the current inflows, I find it hard to believe that the peak of this bull market has been reached.
Another reason why I believe the cycle peak has not yet arrived is as follows:
Common top signals are rarely achieved.
Searches for "cryptocurrency" recently hit a four-year high, and Jim Cramer turned bullish, which is why I took a small profit earlier this week.
But other than that, none of the other “important signals” I mentioned last week have been triggered.
For example, Coinbase’s app store ranking is still over 200. In the previous cycle, it was the number one app in the app store.
The Fear and Greed Index also appears healthy. Despite the recent market rebound, it has not yet reached irrational frenzy. However, for example, Ethereum's price has risen significantly over the past few weeks, so a short-term correction is normal.
Unless this is the worst cycle ever, I don't think the bull market party is over.
So, how do I prepare for the future?
As mentioned below, historically the best time to buy Bitcoin after a halving is in late September of the following year (the most recent Bitcoin halving occurred in 2024), as October is typically a month of exceptional Bitcoin performance.
That's exactly what I plan to do.
According to the market rules in late September, if there is a large drop, I will select a few popular tokens at that time and increase my holdings in advance before the fourth quarter.
Otherwise, I will continue to hold my current position.
If all goes as expected, I will gradually take profits throughout Q4 and significantly reduce my cryptocurrency holdings by year-end.
That’s my plan right now.
However, remember that this is a game of probability, and many variables may emerge in the coming months. As investors and traders, our responsibility is to adjust our strategies according to new circumstances.
We can all only guess, so my advice is that you should make your own plans based on your expectations.
But whatever you think the coming months will bring, and whatever your plans are, make sure risk management remains one of your top priorities.
I have said this many times: the hardest thing is not making money, but keeping the money you earn.
