1. Market Observation
U.S. Treasury Secretary Jeff Bessant is leading the search for a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term expires next May. The list of candidates has expanded to approximately ten, including former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and economic advisor Mark Summerlin. Trump continues to pressure for an interest rate cut and has narrowed the list to four, favoring candidates who support it. However, in outlining his "hiring requirements" for the next chair, Bessant emphasized the importance of earning market trust, forward-thinking thinking, and maintaining monetary policy independence, expressing concern that the Fed's overexpansion has jeopardized these core principles.
Regarding trade policy, Bessant compared the Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs aimed at "rebalancing" the trade deficit to "melting ice," suggesting that if trade imbalances improve, tariffs could be gradually reduced or even eliminated. He also revealed that trade negotiations with several Asian countries are expected to be largely concluded by the end of October. Geopolitics has also become a market focus. CITIC Securities analysts point out that if the US-Russia summit can achieve a substantial breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it could temporarily reduce the geopolitical risk premium for gold and crude oil, boost stock market risk appetite, and have a profound impact on the supply structure of commodities such as energy and metals.
Bitcoin broke through $122,000 this morning, just $900 away from its all-time high. Crypto analyst Orbion noted that the current rotation of funds from Bitcoin to Ethereum and then to smaller cryptocurrencies perfectly replicates the patterns seen before the crashes of 2017 and 2021, predicting that Bitcoin may peak at the end of September before falling back to a low of $55,000 by the end of October. However, analyst Murphy offered a relatively optimistic short-term perspective, noting that Bitcoin has returned to around $120,000, with the $117,000 support range reaffirmed. The current price is trading within an ascending channel, with the first target price for a short-term rebound being the upper band of the channel at $125,000. If it breaks through and holds, further gains to $137,000 are possible.
Furthermore, Ethereum's year-to-date gains have already matched Bitcoin's. Analyst Axel Bitblaze stated that with the price breaking through $4,200, the market has entered an "Ethereum season," although a full-blown "alt season" has yet to arrive. Greeks.Live analyst Adam noted that Ethereum's implied volatility across major tenors is as high as 65% to 70%, far exceeding Bitcoin's, demonstrating strong market expectations for future price fluctuations. Regarding future market trends, analyst IncomeSharks advises investors against blindly chasing highs. If investors missed previous low-price buying opportunities, they can wait for a price drop to around $4,000, which would be a good entry point. If ETH continues to rise to $4,800, it would be wise to wait for a pullback before considering buying. Ash Crypto believes that Ethereum has broken through the key resistance level of $4,100, pushing the price rapidly towards the $4,400-$4,500 range. Lord Hawkins, based on Wyckoff theory, believes that Ethereum's break above $4,200 has entered a "strong signal" phase. If support is confirmed, the price could accelerate upward, targeting $6,000. Crypto Rover and Titan of Crypto, citing broader chart patterns, point out that Ethereum has broken through the upper boundary of a multi-year symmetrical triangle. Based on historical data, this could push prices towards the $8,000 region. Despite significant divergence in long-term forecasts, the market remains generally bullish in the short term. Analyst Ted Pillows believes that ETH's successful breakthrough above $4,000 presents little resistance, and believes that ETH is poised to reach a new all-time high this week, assuming Bitcoin doesn't experience a significant pullback.
Over the weekend, Ethereum entered the top 25 global assets for the first time, with its market capitalization soaring to $520 billion on the morning of August 10th. HashKey Chief Analyst Jeffrey Ding noted that this marks the deepening integration of crypto assets into mainstream finance. From a regulatory perspective, the US SEC's explicit exemption for liquidity staking eliminates compliance uncertainties, injects a return mechanism into ETF products, and is expected to attract more institutional capital and promote industry standardization. At the market level, the surge in institutional holdings and increased on-chain activity reflect a shift in capital from traditional assets to crypto. As a highly liquid asset, Ethereum is benefiting from global demand for inflation hedging and presents significant potential for market capitalization expansion. From the perspective of Web3 ecosystem development, such favorable policies will accelerate the innovation and iteration of DeFi and NFT applications, consolidate Ethereum's position as core infrastructure, and promote cross-chain interoperability and the integration of real-world assets, potentially reshaping the global digital financial landscape.
$SOON's price experienced significant volatility over the weekend, with $10.9 million in liquidations in 24 hours, second only to Bitcoin and Ethereum. It briefly topped Upbit's trading volume chart before quickly falling back. Notably, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, after profiting from the recent sale of PEPE and ENA, invested $7.93 million in ETH, LDO, ETHF, and PENDLE over the weekend. Vitalik's on-chain assets also surpassed $1 billion as Ethereum surpassed $4,300. Furthermore, ZORA hit a new all-time high after a recent pullback, and tokens like AERO, VIRTUAL, and ZORA from the Base ecosystem also saw significant price increases.
2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT, August 11)
(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin : $121,684 (+29.97% YTD), daily spot trading volume $44.274 billion
Ethereum: $4,334.05 (+29.68% YTD), with daily spot volume of $30.679 billion
Fear of Greed Index : 62 (Greed)
Average gas: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.37 Gwei
Market share : BTC 59.9%, ETH 12.8%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings : XRP, ETH, BTC, PROVE, ENA
24-hour BTC long-short ratio : 49.99%/50.01%
Sector gains and losses : DeFi sector rose 2.83%; NFT sector rose 2.29%
24-hour liquidation data : A total of 112,015 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$367 million, including US$113 million in BTC, US$98.16 million in ETH, and US$10.9 million in SOON.
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel : upper channel line ($117,570.51), lower channel line ($115,242.38)
ETH medium- and long-term trend channel : upper line of the channel ($3930.35), lower line ($3852.52)
*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF flows (as of August 8)
Bitcoin ETF: +$403.9 million
Ethereum ETF: +$461 million
4. Today's Outlook
Binance Alpha Lists SatLayer (SLAY) and Xeleb Protocol (XCX)
Binance will delist DEFIUSDT and MEMEFI U-margined perpetual contracts on August 11th
The Superp Foundation will unlock and distribute the remaining 3% airdrop at one time, and the claim page is expected to be launched on August 12.
Solayer (LAYER) will unlock approximately 27.02 million tokens on August 11, accounting for 9.51% of the current circulating supply and worth approximately $17 million.
io.net (IO) will unlock approximately 13.29 million tokens on August 11, representing 6.51% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $8.3 million.
BounceBit (BB) will unlock approximately 42.9 million tokens on August 11, representing 6.36% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $5.4 million.
Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.6 million tokens on August 11th, worth approximately $52 million.
Peaq (PEAQ) will unlock approximately 84.84 million tokens on August 12, representing 7.03% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $5.6 million.
U.S. July unadjusted CPI annual rate : previous value 2.70%, expected value 2.80% (August 12, 20:30)
U.S. July seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate: previous value 0.3%, expected value 0.2% (August 12, 20:30)
The biggest gainers in the top 100 by market capitalization today: Lido up 14.8%, Ethena up 10.9%, Cronos up 6.7%, Hyperliquid up 6%, and Pump.fun up 5.4%.
5. Hot News
1inch team investment fund sold some ETH and 1INCH, realizing $8.36 million in profit
Abraxas Capital shorted ETH, BTC, SOL, HYPE, and SUI, with a current loss of over $190 million
Huajian Medical launches "Global Enhanced Ethereum (ETH) Vault" strategy
This article is supported by HashKey Exchange , Hong Kong's largest licensed virtual asset exchange and Asia's most trusted crypto-fiat gateway. HashKey Exchange is committed to setting new standards for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform assurance.
