1. Market Observation
Since last Friday, global macroeconomic and policy turmoil has persisted. US non-farm payroll data for July fell far short of expectations, with only 73,000 jobs added, and the May and June figures were significantly revised downward by 258,000, causing market turmoil. This move directly led to US President Trump firing Bureau of Labor Statistics Director Erica McEnthorpe and accusing her of data fabrication, exacerbating concerns about the quality of federal economic data. Meanwhile, the sudden resignation of Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler provided Trump with an opportunity to preemptively install a board member likely to support an interest rate cut, significantly increasing market expectations for a September rate cut.
This, coupled with pressure from new tariffs and OPEC+ production increases, has weighed on global risk assets. Goldman Sachs' Tony Pasquariello noted that despite strong earnings reports from large technology companies, stock prices have been muted, while small-cap stocks have suffered significant losses. Market breadth is severely lacking, and capital flows have clearly shifted toward risk aversion. New York Fed President Williams believes the labor market is cooling modestly but remains robust, and is open but cautious about a September rate cut. The White House, however, attributes the weak jobs data to technical factors and anticipates a rebound. However, the market generally believes the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between rising inflation and a weakening labor market, resurfacing the risk of policy missteps.
In the Asia-Pacific region, the RWA sector continues to progress. The world's first RWA registration platform, initiated by the Hong Kong Web3.0 Standardization Association, announced its official launch on August 7th, aiming to provide a comprehensive service for tokenizing physical assets. Jeffrey Ding, Chief Analyst at HashKey, commented that the platform's launch marks a key regulatory innovation in Hong Kong's RWA sector. By establishing standardized processes, it will effectively enhance market compliance and transparency. He believes that the capital market's strong confidence in the RWA sector will further promote the research and development and commercial application of related technologies, injecting new momentum into the digital economy in Hong Kong and the entire Asia-Pacific region.
Bitcoin fell below $112,000 over the weekend but has since rebounded above $114,000. 10x Research notes that the dip below $112,000 is linked to signs of weakness in the US labor market and could signal a significant market shift. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that with the upcoming expiration of US tariffs in the third quarter, coupled with weak non-farm payroll data and sluggish credit growth in global economies, it will be difficult to sustain economic expansion, potentially leading to a drop to $100,000. Trader Cipher X warns that if the price fails to reclaim $116,000, it could fall to $104,000. Analyst CrypNuevo predicts a brief pullback to $110,000, believing it could provide effective support. Analyst BitBull also believes Bitcoin may bottom out in the $110,000-$112,000 range. Technical analysis by Man of Bitcoin suggests that holding $112,000 is key to starting a new uptrend, while a break below it could confirm a top. Although the Matrixport report points out that August and September are usually weak months for Bitcoin, BitBull predicts based on technical patterns that Bitcoin's reversal pattern is still continuing, with a target price of $148,000. The market generally predicts that BTC may reach $150,000 in October 2025.
Regarding Ethereum, Arthur Hayes also predicts it could test $3,000. Trader IncomeSharks believes the current price performance is a false breakout and advises investors to proceed with caution. Well-known crypto analyst 0xENAS is eyeing a short-term opportunity for Ethereum to revisit the $3.8K-$4K range. He believes the DAT (tokenized asset trust) model, a similar ETF-like instrument, has underestimated its potential and could be key to attracting large-scale capital inflows from traditional finance. Fundstrat Capital's Tomas Lee offers an extremely optimistic forecast, believing that with Wall Street's influx of investors, Ethereum's fair price could reach $10,000-$20,000 within the next 12 months.
Over the weekend, due to Musk's retweet of related tweets, meme coins related to the Grok concept rose across the board. Among them, Ani, a female AI companion concept, rose 45% in 24 hours, and Valentine, a male AI companion concept, rose 103%.
2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT, August 4)
(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $114,556 (+22.42% YTD), daily spot trading volume $23.495 billion
Ethereum: $3,555.34 (+6.4% YTD), with daily spot volume of $18.879 billion
Fear of Greed Index: 64 (Greed)
Average gas: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.21 Gwei
Market share: BTC 61.2%, ETH 11.5%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, ETH, BTC, ENA, TOKAMAK
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.52%/50.48%
Sector gainers and losers: PayFi rose 6.78%; RWA rose 5.46%.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 50,981 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$135 million, including BTC liquidation of US$29.46 million, ETH liquidation of US$41.81 million, and XRP liquidation of US$9.16 million.
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($116,909.47), lower channel line ($114,594.43)
ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($3615.31), lower line ($3543.72)
*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF flows (as of August 1)
Bitcoin ETF: -$812 million, the second highest in history
Ethereum ETF: -$152 million, ending 20 consecutive days of net inflows
4. Today's Outlook
Binance Alpha will list Cycle Network (CYC) and DarkStar (DARK) on August 4th
Solana Mobile's second phone, the Seeker, has begun shipping
Rice Robotics to Launch RICE Token on TokenFi Launchpad on August 5
IOTA (IOTA) will unlock approximately 8.63 million tokens at 8:00 AM on August 4th, representing 0.22% of the current circulating supply and worth approximately $1.6 million.
GoGoPool (GGP) will unlock approximately 750,000 tokens at 8:00 AM on August 4th, representing a 10.60% ratio to the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $1.2 million.
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 172 million tokens at 3:00 PM on August 5th, representing 2.70% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $95.8 million.
Spectral (SPEC) will unlock approximately 3.62 million tokens at 8:00 AM on August 5th, representing 17.57% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $1.8 million.
The biggest gainers in the top 100 by market capitalization today: HEX up 14.7%, MemeCore up 13.1%, Pulsechain up 11.3%, Ethena up 11.2%, and PulseX up 11.1%.
5. Hot News
This week's macroeconomic outlook: New tariff red line triggers the "final battle"
Analysis: Paradigm may hold approximately $765.4 million worth of HYPE
Michael Saylor: Bitcoin is a trading asset in the short term and a treasury asset in the long term
Arthur Hayes sold approximately $13.35 million in ETH, ENA, and PEPE
Nasdaq-listed DevVStream Corp. purchased $10 million in Bitcoin and Solana
The US non-farm payrolls in July were 73,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.2%.
This article is supported by HashKey Exchange , Hong Kong's largest licensed virtual asset exchange and Asia's most trusted crypto-fiat gateway. HashKey Exchange is committed to setting new standards for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform assurance.
