Has Bitcoin's four-year cycle really been broken?

The cryptocurrency industry is undergoing a structural shift, potentially breaking its traditional four-year cycle, driven by institutional adoption and new financial infrastructure.

Institutional Adoption via ETFs: The 2024 launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs is a watershed event, attracting $34 billion in net inflows. These products have drawn pension funds and banks, transforming crypto into an institutional asset class. Bitcoin ETFs now hold over $150 billion in assets, accounting for 6% of its supply.
The "Great Rotation": Ownership is shifting from retail investors to long-term institutions. While cyclical traders sell, institutions accumulate, pushing the cost basis up and establishing a new price floor. ETFs have become the primary buying channel, altering historical supply dynamics.
Expansion of Stablecoins and Real-World Assets (RWA): Stablecoins are evolving beyond trading tools into payment and lending systems. The $30 billion RWA market, including tokenized treasuries and credit, is building on-chain financial infrastructure. Recent approval for using stablecoins as derivatives collateral opens new institutional use cases.
Building On-Chain Capital Markets: Projects like BlackRock's BUIDL are connecting traditional capital to crypto, allowing DeFi to use legal collateral. This moves the market away from pure speculation cycles towards sustainable, real-world financial applications.
Future Outlook: Cryptocurrencies are evolving into permanent financial instruments. This may lead to performance differentiation among assets based on sustainable business models, rather than industry-wide price surges driven by narratives.

The cryptocurrency industry appears to be breaking with the traditional four-year cycle. The institutional adoption of exchange-traded funds, the tokenization of real-world assets, and the evolution of stablecoin infrastructure are reshaping the entire market.

In a report released on September 24, an analyst using the pseudonym Ignas pointed out that the listing of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2024 will be a watershed event - since April, crypto ETFs have led all asset classes with a net inflow of $34 billion.

These products have attracted the participation of pension funds, consulting firms and commercial banks, transforming cryptocurrencies from retail speculation targets to institutional allocation assets on par with gold and the Nasdaq index.

Currently, the assets under management of Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded US$150 billion, accounting for 6% of the total BTC supply; Ethereum ETFs control 5.6% of ETH's circulation.

The SEC’s adoption of universal listing standards for commodity ETPs in September accelerated this trend, paving the way for fund filings for assets such as Solana and XRP.

The report calls this shift in ownership from retail investors to long-term institutional investors the "Great Rotation in Crypto Assets."

While traditional cyclicalists are selling, institutional investors continue to accumulate, pushing the cost basis upward and forming a new price bottom.

ETFs have become the primary purchasing channel for Bitcoin and Ethereum, fundamentally changing the supply conditions that drive historical cyclical patterns.

Stablecoins have gone beyond the scope of trading tools and evolved into payment, lending and financial management functions.

The $30 billion real-world asset (RWA) market is a reflection of this expansion, with tokenized treasuries, credit, and commodities building on-chain financial infrastructure.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently approved stablecoins as collateral for derivatives, opening up institutional application scenarios beyond spot demand.

Payment-oriented blockchain projects (such as Stripe’s Tempo and Tether’s Plasma) are driving the integration of stablecoins into the real economy, while digital asset treasury (DAT) companies are providing equity market access for tokens that have not yet been approved for ETFs.

This mechanism not only provides exit liquidity for venture capital, but also introduces institutional funds into the altcoin market.

The RWA tokenization, which establishes benchmark interest rates through government bonds and credit instruments, is building a real capital market on the chain.

BlackRock's BUIDL and Franklin Templeton's BENJI act as bridges, connecting trillions of dollars of traditional capital to crypto infrastructure. This allows DeFi protocols to rely on legal collateral and lending markets, breaking away from the cycle of pure speculation.

This structural shift signals that cryptocurrencies are evolving from cyclical speculative assets to permanent financial instruments.

However, as institutional capital prefers sustainable business models rather than purely narrative-driven ones, individual performance differentiation may replace the general rise in prices.