Nearly $12 billion worth of tokens are waiting to be unlocked, a sword of Damocles hanging over HYPE's head

Hyperliquid's HYPE token faces a significant market test with the impending unlock of 237.8 million tokens over 24 months, starting November 29th. Valued at $50 per token, this represents nearly $12 billion worth of HYPE entering the market.

The monthly unlock schedule will release tokens worth approximately $500 million into circulation.
A major concern is the market's absorption capacity; current buyback volumes can only handle about 17% of the new supply, leaving an estimated $410 million in excess tokens each month.
The pressure comes as developers and early contributors gain the ability to cash out their holdings.
While decentralized autonomous teams (DATs) like Sonnet have raised substantial funds, their combined capital is still a fraction of the total unlock value, making their ability to counter selling pressure uncertain.
The unlocking event coincides with intensified competition from other exchanges and new entrants, potentially creating a perfect storm of increased supply and market volatility.

By Maelstrom

Compiled by Saoirse, Foresight News

Hyperliquid has enjoyed a period of remarkable growth—its ecosystem flourished, trading volume reached record highs, and the USDH bidding war became one of the most watched events in the history of the cryptocurrency world. But beneath this crown hangs a sword of Damocles: HYPE is about to face its first true test.

Starting November 29th, 237.8 million HYPE tokens will be unlocked over a 24-month period. At $50 per token, the total value of the tokens unlocked by the team is $11.9 billion, equivalent to nearly $500 million in nominal value entering the market each month.

The problem? The current buyback volume can only absorb about 17% of the unlocked tokens, which means that there will be an excess supply of $410 million per month. Has the market fully digested the impact of such a large unlocking volume?

 Research support: @lukas_rppt

Think about it this way: if you were a Hyperliquid developer, you’d put in years of hard work, and now a life-changing token was about to be unlocked, and you could cash it out with just one click - what would you choose?

Can DAT turn the tide?

Sonnet, one of the largest decentralized autonomous teams/funds (DATs) in crypto history, is expected to be deployed in Q4 2025. The project has raised approximately $583 million in HYPE tokens and $305 million in cash. However, even when Sonnet's funding is combined with that of other smaller HYPE DATs, it still represents a fraction of the upcoming HYPE token unlocks.

When Sharks Smell Blood

In the cryptocurrency industry, seizing an early lead doesn't guarantee an unchallenged exit. The market is like a battlefield, and historical data shows that most cryptocurrency products have a short lifespan—successful ones always attract the attention of numerous predators. Competition is intensifying: pressure from top-tier exchanges and new entrants like Lighter.xyz (a Maelstrom portfolio company) are also on the rise. It's probably no coincidence that Changpeng Zhao launched Aster two months before the HYPE unlock.