1. Market Observation
China's A-share market performed strongly on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a near-decade high of 3,731.69 points. Trading volume in both markets exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan for the tenth consecutive trading day, with the Hong Kong stock market also rising. Several brokerages expressed their views on this. Industrial Securities believes the core logic behind the market's rise lies in policy support and the emergence of new drivers, while Cathay Pacific and Haitong Securities emphasize the decisive role of institutional reform in the market and are optimistic about continued record highs. Galaxy Securities noted that market volume has reached a new level, with margin trading balances continuing to grow, and the market is expected to rotate around sectors such as the AI industry chain. However, CICC warned that investor sentiment has risen rapidly, and caution is warranted regarding the potential for a subsequent correction or an accelerated peak due to overheating.
Meanwhile, international geopolitical risks are intensifying. US President Trump is pressuring Ukraine to accept a peace agreement and has met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska to discuss a territorial concession for peace. However, this proposal faces skepticism and opposition from Ukraine and its European allies. Against this backdrop, all eyes are on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole this week. While the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, analysts are divided on whether Powell will provide clear guidance on easing, given that inflation remains above the 2% target and economic data remains uncertain.
In the cryptocurrency market, Jeffrey Ding, Chief Analyst at HashKey, noted that the recent simultaneous declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum highlight dual pressures from both macro and liquidity perspectives. He believes this pullback is primarily driven by two factors: First, the unexpected surge in US PPI data for July reignited inflation concerns, fueling risk aversion and weakening demand for risky assets. Second, at the micro-capital level, Coinglass data shows leveraged fund liquidations reaching $980 million within 24 hours, with the majority of these being long positions. This excessive accumulation of leverage amplified the market sell-off. While institutions remain bullish in the long term, short-term profit-taking has led to capital outflows, exacerbating market panic. However, from a technical perspective, Jeffrey Ding believes this correction is more of a healthy correction within the overall upward trend, and the market may rebound after finding a short-term bottom.
Specifically, Bitcoin's price has fallen to around its opening price of $115,700 at the beginning of the month. Technical analyst Zia ul Haque noted that during its rally from $98,000 to $124,000, Bitcoin formed a significant volume gap between $110,000 and $112,000. The market typically tends to fill these inefficiencies. AlphaBTC also stated that if Bitcoin fails to quickly reclaim $116,000, it could fall again to $112,000. Analyst KillaXBT predicts that Bitcoin will test the $114,000 to $115,800 range this week, while retaining the possibility of a return to $120,000. Looking at historical cycles, Rekt Capital notes that the current pullback resembles those in 2017 and 2021, when shallow and rapid pullbacks laid the technical foundation for subsequent strong gains. Looking ahead, Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg offers an extremely optimistic forecast, believing that driven by growing ETF demand and a growing institutional buyer base, there is a greater than 50% probability that Bitcoin will rise to the $140,000 to $150,000 range this year before entering a new bear market.
Regarding Ethereum, analysts generally believe it still has significant upside potential after the correction. Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, predicts that ETH may be facing imminent large-scale liquidations, potentially pushing the price down to the $3,200-$3,600 range. If the price falls further, Mayne, founder of Breakout, says he would consider initiating a position in the $3,600-$4,000 range. More analysts are focusing on the key support level around $4,100. Analyst Ted plans to invest heavily in the $4,100-$4,200 range, while The Crypto Professor emphasizes that as long as ETH stabilizes above $4,100, the overall bullish structure remains valid. He believes that a successful consolidation in the $4,100-$4,700 range will build momentum for a subsequent breakout. Once the local high of $4,793 is broken, both Ted and The Crypto Professor believe the price could move towards the $5,000-$5,200 range, potentially reaching a new all-time high within days.
In the altcoin market, some analysts have expressed differing views on the long-term competitiveness of mainstream public blockchains. For example, despite Ethereum's strong performance over the past few years, Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, has been bluntly pessimistic about its long-term prospects, calling it "old technology." He noted that protocols like Solana and Sui have surpassed Ethereum in terms of transaction speed, cost, and security.
2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT, August 18)
(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $115,231 (+23.51% YTD), daily spot trading volume $29.657 billion
Ethereum: $4,309.03 (+29.54% YTD), with daily spot volume of $27.518 billion
Fear of Greed Index: 60 (Greed)
Average gas : BTC: 2 sat/vB, ETH: 0.3 Gwei
Market share: BTC 58.8%, ETH 3.4%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings : ETH, XRP, STRIKE, CYBER, BTC
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 46.92%/53.08%
Sector gains and losses: The crypto market suffered setbacks across the board, with the GameFi sector leading the decline with a 3.98% drop and the NFT sector down 3.73%.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 116,876 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$463 million, including US$102 million in BTC, US$167 million in ETH, and US$25.11 million in SOL.
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($118,950.12), lower channel line ($116,594.67)
ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($4321.81), lower channel line ($4236.23)
*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF flows (as of August 15)
Bitcoin ETF: -$14.1295 million
Ethereum ETF: -$59,337,100
4. Today's Outlook
Binance Alpha to Launch Reservoir (DAM) on August 18, Supporting Spot and Futures Trading
Binance will launch the 34th TGE project, RICE (RiceAI), on August 18th.
US President Trump held a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky in Washington. (August 19, 01:15)
Fasttoken (FTN) will unlock approximately 20 million tokens at 8:00 am on August 18, accounting for 2.08% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately US$91.4 million.
Melania Meme (MELANIA) will unlock approximately 26.25 million tokens at 8:00 am on August 18, accounting for 5.60% of the current circulating supply and worth approximately US$5.7 million.
The biggest gainers in the top 100 by market capitalization today: HEX up 11.9%, Monero up 7%, Chainlink up 5.4%, PulseX up 5.3%, and Pulsechain up 3.9%.
5. Hot News
Macro Outlook This Week: Powell Will "Fight" Market Expectations of Rate Cuts
Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $2.85 billion last week, a record high
This article is supported by HashKey Exchange , Hong Kong's largest licensed virtual asset exchange and Asia's most trusted crypto-fiat gateway. HashKey Exchange is committed to setting new standards for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform assurance.
