Viewpoint: Based on four logical deductions, the crypto bull market will start in Q2 2026

Based on a four-point logical analysis, the author predicts that the next true cryptocurrency bull market will begin in Q2 2026. The reasoning is as follows:

Rising Gold Prices: Sovereign nations like China and Russia are strategically shifting away from U.S. Treasuries, driving gold prices up due to U.S. fiscal policies and the precedent of frozen Russian reserves.
U.S. Stock Market Growth: U.S. stocks are rising steadily, fueled by automated investments like 401(k) plans and the market's role as a global capital hub, but this is not yet at speculative levels.
Frozen Real Estate Market: High interest rates have immobilized the $37 trillion U.S. residential real estate market, as homeowners avoid selling, refinancing, or taking equity loans at current rates.
Cryptocurrency Rebound: Crypto has recovered from the 2022 downturn but lacks the massive liquidity injection seen in 2021. The author argues the previous bull market was driven by accessible real estate equity, not just stimulus checks.

The bull market is expected to start when interest rates fall sufficiently to "thaw" the real estate market, unlocking equity for investment. Positive price action is anticipated for about six quarters, with a potential bear market emerging in late 2027 or early 2028 due to market mania and pre-election tensions. The author concludes that the bull run has not even begun yet and advises continuing to accumulate assets.

Author: rektdiomedes

Compiled by Tim, PANews

Is the crypto bull run over?

In fact, I think if we look at the overall market situation rationally, the current situation is completely reasonable.

One: Gold prices are rising like crazy, far outpacing stocks and cryptocurrencies.

That's because major sovereign nations (such as China, India, Russia and, to some extent, the United States itself) are pushing up gold prices as part of a strategic shift away from the days of using U.S. Treasuries as the "world's reserve asset."

This is mainly driven by two factors: one is the general fiscal profligacy in the United States, and the other is the US freezing of Russia's foreign exchange and Treasury bond reserves a few years ago, which completely exposed the fact that US Treasury bonds can no longer be regarded as a "neutral" reserve asset.

Several macro-observers, such as Doomberg, Luke Gromen, and my friend Noah Seidman, have elaborated on this point: when Russia, and even China and India, witness the United States implementing a freeze in this way, it is entirely possible to deduce from a game-theoretic perspective that these countries will make a rational choice to increase their gold holdings and reduce their U.S. debt holdings.

Second: U.S. stocks are rising, but not yet to crazy levels.

This is because the U.S. stock market is essentially an automated Ponzi scheme, driven by automated flows of money from the 401k/passive investing industrial complex (as Mike Green has been expounding on for years).

Every ordinary nine-to-five office worker in the country will automatically invest their retirement funds into major indices every month, regardless of prices or other variables, so these indices will naturally rise in the long run.

Furthermore, the US stock market is increasingly becoming the "world's stock market" as the global economy moves increasingly online. As the prime arena for capital formation, it's no surprise that the largest "global companies" like Amazon, Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft are all based in the US.

This situation is likely to continue until this trend develops further and cryptocurrencies themselves become the dominant arena for global capital formation.

Third: The U.S. real estate market (and the real estate markets in most developed countries where mortgages exist) remains completely frozen due to high interest rates.

Currently, U.S. residential real estate has asset equity worth $37 trillion, but the problem is that this equity is almost impossible to use. No one is willing to cash out and refinance at an interest rate higher than the existing mortgage, nor is they willing to sell their existing home and then apply for a new mortgage at a higher interest rate, and they don’t want to take out a home equity line of credit with an absurdly high interest rate (reaching double digits).

Fourth: Cryptocurrencies have rebounded from their lows in 2022. The downturn at that time was caused by the interest rate hike cycle and the subsequent collapse of institutions such as LUNA and FTX, and have now basically returned to normal.

We are about 25% larger than our peak in 2021, but still smaller than Nvidia and only one-tenth the total market value of gold.

The reason why we have not yet seen anything like a "bull market" is that the macroeconomic situation has not yet seen large-scale liquidity injections like in 2021.

Most people point to stimulus checks and stay-at-home orders as the main drivers of the 2021 bull market, but as I’ve said before, I believe the real reason was the massive amount of real estate equity available for extraction at the time.

This is how the legendary “Cardano dad” got his extra investment capital during the last bull run, watching Hosk’s videos on YouTube and then slamming the buy button on Coinbase.

He either sold the house and reinvested the equity, refinanced, or applied for a home equity line of credit.

Conclusion

Given all of the above, the current performance of the asset class in question makes perfect sense.

Specifically in the crypto space, we should expect the real "bull market" to start in the second quarter of 2026, when interest rates will finally fall low enough to begin to "thaw" the US real estate market.

At this point, I think we're about six quarters into very positive price action.

By the fourth quarter of 2027 or the first quarter of 2028, the aftermath of the aforementioned market mania and the initial emergence of pre-election panic (imagine a figure like Mamdani leading the Democratic primary nationwide) will trigger a sell-off, leading to another "bear market."

Therefore, I think the "bull run" in the crypto market has not ended yet, and I don't even think the "bull run" has begun.

I will continue to hoard coins, keep taking action, and focus on the second quarter of next year.