1. Market Observation
The latest US CPI data for July showed a moderate trend, rising 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, generally below market expectations. This has led to a surge in expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. Although the core CPI rebounded due to rising service sector prices, analysts generally believe that inflationary pressures are manageable and the pass-through effect of tariffs has yet to materialize, removing the main obstacle to a rate cut. Furthermore, the total US national debt has reached a historic high of over $37 trillion. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the market predicts a 90.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, and a 60% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut in October.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant has publicly called for the Federal Reserve to consider a larger 50 basis point rate cut at its September meeting, given that revised employment data is weaker than initially reported. He also hopes that his candidate, Stephen Milan, will be confirmed by the Senate as a Fed governor before the meeting, bringing a fresh voice to policymaking. Bessant also criticized the Fed's bloated status quo, arguing that a leader capable of initiating reforms is needed, and revealed that Trump is completely open to the next chairman.
Bitcoin has been hovering between $118,000 and $120,000 for the past two days. CoinDesk's Omkar Godbole warned that if the price forms a double top pattern near $122,000 and breaks below the neckline at $111,982, it could trigger a massive sell-off, pushing the price down to $100,000. ZAYK Charts, based on the Wyckoff method, also suggests that if Bitcoin enters a distribution phase, a pullback to $95,000 could fill the CME gap. However, more analysts are optimistic. QCP Capital points to derivatives markets as evidence that traders are hedging risk in the $115,000-$118,000 range. Alex Kuptsikevich of FxPro believes that technical resistance has been breached at $120,000, with the next target range potentially between $135,000 and $138,000. Titan of Crypto also set a target price of $137,000 based on a trendline breakout. AlphaBTC predicts that Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high after short-term volatility, but may experience a more significant correction in September and October, before reaching a bull market climax at the end of the fourth quarter.
Ethereum's performance was particularly impressive, with its price breaking through $4,600, reaching a three-year high. This was primarily driven by strong institutional buying and favorable regulatory approvals. CryptoQuant analysis indicates that while market leverage is near record highs, potentially causing short-term volatility, strong institutional inflows and improving network fundamentals are expected to support a long-term upward trend. ETH broke through $4,366 and began a new upward trend, with a target price of $4,868. Key support is at $4,094; a break below could trigger a pullback to the 20-day moving average of $3,833. Data from analyst Ali shows that the TD Sequential indicator is issuing a sell signal on the daily chart. A break below the key support level of $4,150 could lead to a drop to $3,980 or $3,860. However, most analysts believe the upward trend remains intact, with Matrixport's ultimate target still at the all-time high of $4,892. Man of Bitcoin believes Ethereum has reached the 2.382 Fibonacci extension level, indicating it is in the third wave of an upward trend, with a potential local top between $4,596 and $5,094. In the short term, the minor support level of $4,438 should be monitored to maintain upward pressure.
Since its inception, Ethereum, leveraging its powerful smart contract functionality and the potential for decentralized applications (DA), has evolved from a complementary role to Bitcoin to a core platform supporting a multi-trillion-dollar ecosystem encompassing DeFi, NFTs, and RWAs, continuing to lead the global development of blockchain technology. HashKey Chief Analyst Jeffrey Ding noted that Ethereum's price dynamics directly reflect its technological progress and the macro-market environment. The all-time high of $4,800 reached during the 2021 bull market reflects the convergence of multiple factors—a low global interest rate environment, pandemic-induced economic stimulus policies, and explosive ecosystem growth—that have accelerated its transformation from an emerging asset to a mainstream store of value. Therefore, the current surge in Ethereum prices is not only a clear signal of an overall market recovery, but also a critical moment in testing its growth strategy and intrinsic value in the new cycle.
Solana's price has finally broken through $200 again, rising 15% over the past 24 hours. This may be attributed to the addition of Arthur Hayes to its Strategic Reserve Advisory Board, the issuance of 500 million additional USDC on-chain, and the active buyback by the PUMP project. Regarding on-chain meme coins, the market capitalization of $ORANGE, associated with Taylor Swift's new album, soared to $16.5 million and is currently fluctuating around $8 million. Meanwhile, an innovative PEPE token recently appeared on the Bags platform. By paying transaction fees directly to the original meme creators, the platform's token price rose by over 2860% in 24 hours, reaching a current market capitalization of approximately $7 million.
2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT, August 13)
(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $119,348 (+27.43% YTD), daily spot volume $48.084 billion
Ethereum: $4,632.94 (+38.88% YTD), with a daily spot trading volume of $59.384 billion
Fear of Greed Index: 73 (Greed)
Average gas: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.59 Gwei
Market share: BTC 58.5%, ETH 13.9%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: ETH, CYBER, XRP, SOL, BTC
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 50.06%/49.94%
Sector gains and losses : AI sector rose 9.98%; L1 sector rose 8.78%
24-hour liquidation data : A total of 118,463 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$521 million, of which BTC liquidation was US$38.13 million, ETH liquidation was US$286 million, and DOGE liquidation was US$21.78 million.
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($118,326.25), lower channel line ($115,983.16)
ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($4102.96), lower channel line ($4021.71)
*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF flows (as of August 12)
Bitcoin ETF: +$65.9474 million, 5 consecutive days of net inflow
Ethereum ETF: +$524 million, 6 consecutive days of net inflows
4. Today's Outlook
The biggest gainers in the top 100 by market capitalization today: Fartcoin up 23.8%, Pump.fun up 12.9%, Raydium up 12.7%, Solana up 12.4%, and Chainlink up 11.5%.
5. Hot News
Pantera Capital disclosed that it has invested more than $300 million in DAT companies
Ethereum Foundation-associated addresses sold 1,694.8 ETH in the past two hours
U.S. stock market closed: All three major stock indexes closed up more than 1%
Stripe appoints Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang as first CEO of Tempo Blockchain
Norway's sovereign wealth fund's Bitcoin exposure surges 192% to 7,161 coins in 2025
Circle's proposed Arc blockchain will use USDC as its native gas
Grayscale Launches DeepBook and Walrus Trust, Deploying Key Protocols for the Sui Ecosystem
BitMine plans to issue $20 billion in additional common stock
Hyperliquid Assistance Fund Has Acquired $1.2 Billion in HYPE Tokens Since Its Inception
This article is supported by HashKey Exchange , Hong Kong's largest licensed virtual asset exchange and Asia's most trusted crypto-fiat gateway. HashKey Exchange is committed to setting new standards for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform assurance.
