1. Market Observation

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium paved the way for market expectations of a September rate cut, but he also emphasized that the final decision would still depend on incoming economic data. Traders at Goldman Sachs' fixed income division believe Powell's comments have given the green light for a rate cut, particularly given the Fed's concerns about downside risks in the labor market following recent revisions to employment data. Goldman Sachs noted that if August non-farm payroll growth falls below 100,000, it would provide decisive support for a September rate cut. The bank predicts that regardless of whether the economy slows or normalizes, the Fed's current rate-cutting cycle is likely to end in the first half of 2026.

Investor sentiment has shifted significantly, with market focus shifting from whether to cut interest rates to the pace and magnitude of those cuts. CME Group tools indicate an 85% probability of a September rate cut. Historical data shows that a Fed rate cut after a pause is generally bullish for the stock market. Carson Group strategist Ryan Detrick noted that in 10 of the past 11 such instances, the S&P 500 index rose in the subsequent year. However, future data such as PCE and CPI could still add uncertainty to the decision.

Bitcoin's price plummeted to around $110,000 early this morning, suspected to be caused by a single whale selling 24,000 BTC. Analyst Willy Woo noted that Bitcoin's slow price growth during this cycle is linked to continued selling by early whales who built their positions at extremely low costs (less than $10) around 2011. Currently, each BTC sold requires over $110,000 in new capital, creating significant market pressure. Furthermore, technical analysts are divided on the outlook. Crypto analyst KillaXBT believes Bitcoin's structure is bearish on lower timeframes and needs to reclaim the weekly opening price of $113,400 to validate further gains. Otherwise, it risks a renewed bottom. He also noted a potential "gap" near $116,800 that could be tested. Analysts Rekt Capital and Daan Crypto Trades both highlighted $114,000 as a key level for the weekend close. (Bitcoin closed at $113,493 over the weekend.)

Ethereum market sentiment is relatively positive. Arkham data shows that some Bitcoin whales are swapping BTC for ETH, indicating strong demand. Analysts offer varying predictions for price trends. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe warns investors against weekend market traps (weekend gains typically retrace early Monday to Friday evening's starting point). He predicts that in the event of a market correction, the $4,100 to $4,200 range will be an ideal accumulation zone, potentially leading to a new all-time high. Analyst Stoic is closely monitoring the $4,590 to $4,600 range, believing it to be a key level controlling market trends. More optimistic analyst BitBull suggests that if Ethereum can close above $4,600 this week (it closed at $4,780 over the weekend), it will be considered a bull trap and pave the way for a potential push towards the $5,200 to $5,500 target this week. However, some analysts are cautious. 0xENAS stated that its target price of 0.04 for the ETH/BTC trading pair has been achieved, marking a shift in its trading strategy to be conservative.

Overall, BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes predicts that the cryptocurrency bull market will continue until 2028, driven by changes in US stablecoin policy. Analyst Pentoshi believes that while Sol is unlikely to reach new highs against ETH this cycle, its price against the US dollar is expected to rebound to around $250. Luca Netz, CEO of the NFT project Pudgy Penguins, revealed that the project is expected to generate a record $50 million in revenue this year and hopes to achieve a public listing by 2027. Furthermore, the $WLFI token generation event contract has been deployed, and trading is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM on September 1st. Users must activate their account before claiming the token.

2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT, August 25)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

• Bitcoin: $112,535 (+20.29% YTD), daily spot trading volume $42.572 billion

• Ethereum: $4,705.87 (+41.02% YTD), with a daily spot trading volume of $41.462 billion

• Fear of corruption index: 46 (neutral)

• Average gas: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.34 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 57.2%, ETH 14.5%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: ETH, SOL, XRP, QTUM, BTC

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 47.29%/52.71%

• Sector gains and losses: The crypto market suffered setbacks across the board, with the RWAI sector down 4.37% and the NFT sector down 3.24%.

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 141,306 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$680 million, including US$238 million in BTC, US$216 million in ETH, and US$14.44 million in DOGE.

• BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($116,847.65), lower channel line ($114,533.83)

• ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($4525.95), lower line ($4436.32)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of August 22)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$23.1492 million, net outflow for 6 consecutive days

• Ethereum ETF: +$341 million

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Wallet Bonding Curve's TGE will launch OVERTAKE (TAKE) on August 25th

• Binance Alpha to List Multiple Network (MTP) on August 25th

• Bio Protocol's first Ignition Sale project, Aubrai, will launch on August 25th

• Binance Alpha to List Alttown (TOWN) on August 26

• Venom (VENOM) will unlock approximately 59.26 million tokens at 4:00 PM on August 25th, representing 2.34% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $8.9 million.

• AltLayer (ALT) will unlock approximately 240 million tokens at 6:00 PM on August 25th, representing 6.01% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $8.5 million.

• Sahara AI (SAHARA) will unlock approximately 84.27 million tokens at 8:00 PM on August 26, representing 3.97% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $7.3 million.

• Huma Finance (HUMA) will unlock approximately 378 million tokens at 9:00 PM on August 26th, representing 23.38% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $10 million.

The biggest gainers in the top 100 by market capitalization today: VeChain up 4.4%, Hyperliquid up 3.8%, Story up 3.4%, Monero up 2.1%, and Algorand up 2%.

5. Hot News

• Data: JUP, KMNO, HUMA and other tokens will usher in large-scale unlocking, of which JUP unlocking value is approximately US$27.1 million

• This week's macroeconomic outlook: Don't be too crazy about rate cuts, don't be too panic about PCE

• This Week's Preview | Crypto Summit Week in Japan and Hong Kong; Jupiter (JUP) to Unlock Tokens Worth Approximately $27 Million

• Raydium has spent $196.3 million to repurchase 71 million RAY, accounting for 26.4% of the circulating supply.

• Pudgy Penguins CEO: Revenue expected to reach $50 million this year, plans IPO within two years

• A Bitcoin OG once again took out 6,000 BTC to exchange for ETH

• OKX Star: Will Launch $100 Million X Layer Ecosystem Fund

• The top 10 WLFI public offering participants hold 4.63% of the total, and TGE unlocks 20% worth $264 million.

• The Stargate DAO has approved LayerZero's acquisition of Stargate (STG).

• Bitmine increased its holdings by approximately $45 million in ETH, bringing its total holdings to approximately $7 billion.

• ETHZilla plans to raise $10 billion through a rights offering to support continued ETH purchases

• Trend Research increased its holdings by 28.21 million NEIROETH, now holding 67% of the total

• Story Foundation Launches $82 Million Open Market Buyback Program for $IP