Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
1. Market Observation
A potential federal government shutdown is imminent in the United States. With both parties in Congress deadlocked on issues like healthcare, the government is expected to shut down on October 1st if a short-term spending agreement cannot be reached before funds run out on September 30th . Market expectations are that the shutdown has a probability of over 75%, could last three weeks, and delay the release of key economic data, including Friday's non-farm payroll report . This would not only drag down quarterly GDP growth but also leave the Federal Reserve without data to guide its October interest rate decision.
Weak employment data was key to reinforcing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, but data release delays and some stronger-than-expected economic indicators have cast a shadow over the prospects for a rate cut. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has raised the risk of a "reacceleration" of the economy, arguing that labor market resilience, expectations of fiscal stimulus, and loose financial conditions could collectively drive stronger-than-expected economic growth. This will pose distinct challenges for the monetary policy path in 2026, with future policy direction largely dependent on the policy preferences of the new Fed Chair. Against this backdrop, gold, as a safe-haven asset, has performed exceptionally well, with gains exceeding 40% this year, with spot prices briefly exceeding $3,810 per ounce . Barclays and other institutions consider gold a superior value hedge, while Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank also expect its upward trend to continue.
In the cryptocurrency market, market sentiment is clearly divided, but generally cautious. Analyst Ted noted that if Bitcoin falls below the $107,000 support level, it could drop to $100,000. A break above $113,500 could trigger a new uptrend. Doctor Profit believes the market could fall to $106,000 in the short term, with the main target being the $90,000-$94,000 range. He emphasized that signs of global funding pressure are emerging, and unless central banks inject large amounts of liquidity, the market will struggle to find support. TheCryptoLemon believes that after a pullback to $92,000-$95,000, Bitcoin will enter its final leg of gains, targeting its all-time high of $124,000. It could also potentially stall at $120,000, followed by a potential year-long bear market. However, some analysts see potential for upward movement. AlphaBTC stated that BTC has broken through its short-term downward trend line, with the next target being $114,000. If the price can re-establish support at $112,000, further gains are expected in October. Stonic also believes that if the price breaks through and holds the range high of $112,700, it could test $115,000. Analyst Murphy holds a relatively neutral, volatile view, believing that BTC prices will fluctuate between approximately $108,000 and the $113,000-$117,000 MVRV pricing range. Furthermore, Daan Crypto Trades noted the upward gap at the opening of the CME futures market and believes that the short-term market structure will not deteriorate unless the price falls below $111,000.
Ethereum also faces key resistance. According to a report by Greeks.live macro researcher Adam, despite a net outflow of over 60,000 ETFs, the price of Ethereum still surged 4%, indicating signs of whales buying the dip. The market is closely watching the $3,700 support level and the $4,300 resistance level. However, analyst Ted noted that a break below the $3,800 support level could quickly lead to a drop to the $3,500-3,600 range. Meanwhile, analyst Sykodelic adopted a more cautious strategy, locking in some profits after the price hit $3,900. He believes the current price range is likely the high point of a short-term correction and cautions investors to remain vigilant against low-volume weekend rallies, although he believes a market bottom has been formed.
It is worth noting that FTX will begin executing the next round of compensation on September 30th, paying an additional $1.6 billion to specific categories of creditors. This distribution will be executed through BitGo, Kraken, and Payoneer. In addition, the Hypurr NFT series has been successfully deployed to HyperEVM. This series is designed to commemorate the early community supporters of Hyperliquiquit. The current floor price is approximately 1,480 HYPE, worth approximately $70,000.
2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, September 29)
(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)
Bitcoin: $111,811 (+19.45% YTD), daily spot trading volume $36.409 billion
Ethereum: $4,117.72 (+23.35% YTD), with a daily spot trading volume of $23.303 billion
Fear and Corruption Index: 39 (panic)
Average gas: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.15 Gwei
Market share: BTC 57.8%, ETH 12.9%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XPL, KAITO, BTC, XRP, ETH
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 50.08%/49.92%
Sector gains and losses: DeFi sector rose 3.49%, CeFi sector rose 3.12%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 93,819 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$354 million, including BTC liquidation of US$51.7388 million, ETH liquidation of US$129 million, and SOL liquidation of US$37.7393 million.
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($113,567.59), lower channel line ($111,318.72)
ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($4267.31), lower line ($4182.81)
*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF flows (as of September 26)
Bitcoin ETF: -$418 million
Ethereum ETF: -$248 million, 5 consecutive days of outflow
4. Today's Outlook
Anoma (XAN) Binance Alpha and Futures Platform Listing Delayed to September 29th
OKX will delist six spot trading platforms, including FORTH and LUNC, on September 29th.
Ronin Treasury plans to launch RON token buyback on September 29th
Binance Alpha to List OpenEden (EDEN) and zkVerify (VFY) on September 30th
Starknet: BTC staking functionality will be launched on the mainnet on September 30
Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens at 8:00 am on September 30, accounting for 2.50% of the current circulating supply and worth approximately US$60 million.
The biggest gains among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today: MYX Finance up 28.9%, Zcash up 16.1%, Pump.fun up 13.5%, Story up 13%, and Aethir up 10.3%.
