Trading Moments: Bitcoin tests $111,000 support ahead of Fed rate decision; gold falls below $4,000, Citizens lowers short-term target.

Bitcoin is consolidating around $112,000 ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with analysts highlighting $111,000-$112,000 as a key support zone. A hold above this level could pave the way for a rally towards $120,000, with year-end targets as high as $150,000-$180,000.
Gold prices fell below $4,000, prompting Citigroup to lower its short-term target to $3,800, citing easing geopolitical risks and profit-taking pressure.
The first U.S. spot Solana ETF saw significant inflows, with JPMorgan predicting it could attract $3-$6 billion in its first year. SOL is showing a bullish technical pattern with a potential target of $412.
Major altcoins like Ethereum are also experiencing volatility, with analysts watching the $4,050 level closely. A break above could signal a move towards new highs.
The market's "Fear and Greed Index" sits at 39 (Fear), and over $500 million in liquidations occurred in the last 24 hours, reflecting heightened volatility.
Key upcoming events include the Fed rate decision and press conference, with a rate cut widely expected, alongside several token unlocks for projects like OP and IMX.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Ahead of the interest rate decision at 2 a.m. tomorrow, Trump made a series of optimistic remarks, including projecting 4% GDP growth next quarter and pledging not to allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates , aiming to attract $21 to 22 trillion in investment into the US economy for his second term. Markets are holding their breath for this week's Fed rate decision, with a rate cut widely expected . However, strategists at JPMorgan Chase point out that even after ending quantitative tightening, the Fed will still need to take additional measures to alleviate persistent pressures in the funding markets.

As spot gold prices fell below $4,000, Citigroup lowered its short-term target price to $3,800, viewing $3,600 as a key support level , primarily due to easing geopolitical risk expectations and potential selling pressure from substantial unrealized gains in the market. Despite a bearish short-term outlook, analysts generally believe that gold's value as a long-term strategic hedging tool remains solid amid the collapse of global trust systems and rising sovereign risks. The Federal Reserve's policy moves and the performance of the US economy will be key to a gold price rebound.

Regarding Bitcoin , the market exhibited consolidation and correction ahead of the crucial FOMC meeting. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes this is a standard technical pullback and emphasizes the critical importance of Bitcoin holding the key level of $112,000, predicting a subsequent rally targeting $150,000. Justin Bennett echoed this view, predicting that after a pullback to the $112,000 area, Bitcoin could potentially challenge $120,000 in early November, provided the price holds above $111,000 after the Fed's decision. However, short-term downward pressure exists. Analyst Man of Bitcoin points out that Bitcoin has broken below the upward trendline and is testing support at $111,242. A decisive break below this level could lead to further declines to the $108,638-$110,251 range, while the price is currently filling the CME futures gap between $111,150 and $113,480. Cheds Trading also observed that prices are retracing towards the logical support level of $110,000 after initial resistance. Ash Crypto believes that the current Bitcoin price is severely suppressed by market manipulation, but with the injection of liquidity, a large-scale breakout is imminent, with a target price of $150,000 to $180,000 in November and December. In summary, Bitcoin needs to hold the $114,000 support level, accompanied by a rebound in spot trading volume, to confirm its potential to break through $115,000 and sustain its recovery. Looking ahead, analysts Michaël van de Poppe and Ash Crypto are both optimistic, believing that with interest rate cuts, the end of QT, and the rotation of funds from assets such as gold, the crypto market will experience a large-scale breakout and is expected to achieve strong growth by the end of the year.

Ethereum is also facing volatility, briefly dipping below $3,900 this morning. Analyst Man of Bitcoin offered two possibilities: if the price remains below $4,053, downward pressure continues, potentially forming a corrective B wave; however, if it holds above $4,057, it could still reach a new high in the third wave. Similar to Bitcoin, Ash Crypto is extremely bullish on Ethereum's future, predicting a price between $7,500 and $12,000 between November and January.

The Solana ecosystem has garnered significant attention due to the listing of its first spot ETF (BSOL) in the US, with JPMorgan predicting it could attract $3 billion to $6 billion in inflows in its first year. Technical analysis shows a bullish flag pattern on the weekly chart for SOL, with a target price of $412 after a breakout, while analyst BitBull believes the target for this cycle is between $400 and $500. In the short term, analyst Man of Bitcoin points to support a pullback between $190 and $182, while Ali's on-chain data shows a large accumulation of SOL around $189, forming a major support zone . Meanwhile, the previously popular x402 concept has cooled somewhat , with the market capitalization of related tokens PING and PAYAI briefly falling below $20 million and $40 million respectively. However , in the Web2 AI and payments sector, PayPal announced integration with ChatGPT to support AI-powered in-app shopping payments , driving its stock price up 3.94%. However, Trump Media Group announced a partnership with Crypto.com to launch prediction market functionality on its social platform Truth Social, which boosted the related prediction market project Limitless by as much as 40%, though the surge has since narrowed to 20%. It's also worth noting that Stable, the stablecoin project accused of insider trading during its $825 million pre-deposit event on October 24, has announced that its second phase of pre-deposit activities will begin next week.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on October 29)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, CoinMarketCap, GMGN)

Bitcoin: $112,989 (year-to-date +20.71%), daily spot trading volume $65.45 billion.
Ethereum: $4,025 (year-to-date +20.53%), daily spot trading volume $33.06 billion.
Fear of Greed Index: 39 (Panic)
Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.1 Gwei
Market share: BTC 59.2%, ETH 12.8%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, ETH, BTC, VIRTUAL, KERNEL
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 49.7%/50.3%
Sector Performance: L2 sector fell 3.2%, DePIN sector fell 2.8%.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 137,571 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $512 million. This included $112 million in BTC liquidations, $156 million in ETH liquidations, and $58.26 million in SOL liquidations.
BTC medium-to-long-term trend channel: upper edge ($113,145.14), lower edge ($110,904.64).
ETH medium-to-long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($4047.69), lower channel line ($3967.54)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower limits, it indicates a medium- to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping pattern.

3. ETF Flows (as of October 28)

Bitcoin ETF: +$202 million, marking the fourth consecutive day of net inflows.
Ethereum ETF: +$246 million, with Fidelity FETH leading the net inflow at $99.271 million.

4. Today's Outlook

Binance Alpha will list BitcoinOS (BOS) on October 29th.
Coinbase will delist six trading pairs, including MASK-USDT and MINA-USDT, on October 30.
Coinbase will release its third-quarter financial results after the stock market closes on October 30.
Strategy will release its Q3 2025 financial results on October 30th (local time).
Mt. Gox has extended its repayment deadline from October 31 to 2026.
US Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit) to October 29: Previous value 4.25%, expected value 4.00% (October 30, 02:00)
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference on monetary policy. (October 30, 02:30)
Zora (ZORA) will unlock approximately 167 million tokens on October 30th at 8:00 AM, representing 4.55% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $15.9 million.
Kamino (KMNO) will unlock approximately 229 million tokens on October 30th at 8 PM, representing 5.99% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $14.2 million.
Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens on October 31st at 8:00 AM, representing 1.71% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $14.2 million.
Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 24.52 million tokens on October 31st at 8:00 AM, representing 1.24% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $13.3 million.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Pi Network up 15.6%, Official Trump up 12.2%, Aerodrome Finance up 11.4%, Bittensor up 5.3%, and MemeCore up 4.8%.