Original: The Round Trip

Compiled by: Yuliya, PANews

In an era where encryption and AI intersect, the truly important stories are often hidden outside the hustle and bustle. In order to find these overlooked truths, PANONY and Web3.com Ventures jointly launched the English video program "The Round Trip". Co-hosted by John Scianna and Cassidy Huang, this episode will deeply analyze how global geopolitical changes affect the cryptocurrency market, AI technology development and international trade patterns, explore the far-reaching impact of the easing of Sino-US relations, Trump's trip to the Middle East, and the easing of conflicts in various regions on the global economy, and pay attention to the latest progress of crypto assets gradually gaining mainstream financial recognition.

*Note: This video was released on May 16, and some data and dynamics may differ from the current situation.

China and the United States temporarily suspended tariffs, and market sentiment quickly recovered

On May 12, the United States and China reached a temporary agreement to reduce tariffs to 30% and 10% respectively. This news had a positive impact on the market, and the stock market rose rapidly. US Treasury Secretary Scott Basant called this a "reset" and revealed that more extensive negotiations will be launched in the coming weeks.

However, it is important to be clear that the 90-day tariff truce is not real peace, but just a brief pause. Nevertheless, this move is enough to inject vitality into risky assets. The cryptocurrency market, as a "super-active pressure gauge" of global sentiment, has responded quickly, sometimes hitting record highs and sometimes falling back due to profit-taking. Market participants are closely watching the upcoming macro data. At present, the S&P 500 has turned positive for the year, and the Dow Jones and Nasdaq are only less than 1% away from their levels at the beginning of the year.

Trump's Middle East trip: AI, defense and new games beyond oil

Trump started a four-day visit to the Middle East on May 13, from Saudi Arabia, Syria to the United Arab Emirates, and there were big deals wherever he went. Saudi Arabia not only received him as a state guest, but also signed a $142 billion defense order. Saudi Arabia also promised to invest $600 billion in the United States in energy, technology and infrastructure in the next four years. In addition, the two sides also reached an important AI and chip cooperation agreement involving companies such as Nvidia and AMD to promote related Saudi-led projects. It is worth mentioning that Saudi Arabia also arranged a mobile McDonald's car near the Royal Court, which was nicknamed "McDonald's diplomacy" by netizens, in sharp contrast to Biden's cold treatment during his previous visit to Saudi Arabia.

In addition, Trump also broke the silence of the US and Syrian high-level officials for 25 years and held talks with Syrian President Ahmad al Shahar, announcing the lifting of sanctions and encouraging the normalization of relations between Syria and Israel. This series of diplomatic moves is obviously intended to reconstruct the strategic structure and technological alliance in the Middle East.

Trump then signed billions of dollars in trade and defense deals in Qatar, including the largest jet purchase order in Boeing's history. He also hinted that Qatar could play a role in mediation with Iran while reaffirming the bottom line of the United States. Boeing's stock rose 30% in a month, rebounding strongly from the trough of suspended deliveries due to the trade war and becoming a symbol of American industrial strength again.

On Iran, Trump has resumed the "maximum pressure" strategy since February, imposing comprehensive sanctions on Iran's oil exports, banking, shipping and insurance industries through executive orders and national security memoranda, aiming to reduce Iran's revenue to zero. In contrast, Gulf allies have gained support through AI chip deals, defense upgrades and investment partnerships, while Iran faces deepening isolation and a severe economic shock. The message is clear: either comply or be isolated.

The last stop of Trump's Middle East trip was the United Arab Emirates, where the Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque was closed for the first time due to a foreign visit. The United States and the UAE announced a preliminary agreement to allow the latter to import 500,000 Nvidia AI chips each year starting this year. These chips will power large AI data centers in the UAE, which are mainly operated by American cloud service providers.

In addition, the U.S. Department of Commerce disclosed the "U.S.-UAE AI Acceleration Cooperation Framework" to expand AI infrastructure in the Gulf region. Trump and Sheikh Mohammed jointly announced plans for a 5-gigawatt AI park, one of the largest AI projects outside the United States. It is worth noting that the UAE has pledged to invest $1.4 billion in the United States over the next decade and is building an increasingly close new global technology alliance.

Signals of geopolitical easing are beginning to emerge: PKK disbands, South Asian dialogue restarts, Russia and Ukraine return to the negotiation table

In May, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) announced its dissolution, ending a 40-year armed struggle. The Iraqi government and the United Nations welcomed this and looked forward to the gradual implementation of regional stability. In Syria, Kurdish forces are integrating into the Syrian government forces, opening a new chapter in the "reconciliation framework."

In South Asia, India and Pakistan have resumed negotiations due to economic incentives, focusing on easing border tensions and resuming bilateral trade. Although the negotiations are still in the early stages, if a ceasefire agreement can be reached, it will have a profound impact on regional stability.

At the same time, Russia and Ukraine are also seeking to ease the conflict through diplomatic talks. Although Russian President Putin did not attend the meeting in person and only sent a low-level delegation to attend, Ukrainian President Zelensky attended the meeting in person, showing Ukraine's positive attitude to seek international support and promote diplomatic solutions. According to other news, the EU has launched the 17th round of sanctions against Russia, continuing to exert influence through economic pressure.

Cryptocurrency goes mainstream: Institutional acceptance grows

Crypto assets also performed well against the backdrop of stronger traditional financial markets. Bitcoin surpassed $105,000 last week, and although some profit-taking followed as the Fear and Greed Index rose to 73, institutional interest is still heating up.

Most notably, Coinbase will be officially included in the S&P 500 index on May 19, replacing Discover Financial Services. Index inclusion means that passive investment funds, pensions and ETFs will be forced to buy and hold Coinbase shares, which may bring in billions of dollars in capital inflows and also mark a leap forward in the status of crypto assets in the mainstream financial system.

In addition, eToro completed its NASDAQ listing at a price of $52, exceeding market expectations, indicating that the capital market has a positive attitude towards "crypto-native platforms". Robinhood also spent $179 million to acquire Canadian compliance platform WonderFi, which is expected to increase revenue by about 10% and further consolidate its layout in the North American crypto market.

Global Crypto Regulatory Framework Gradually Taking Shape

Globally, the Thai government announced plans to launch a public, investment-grade crypto token, distinct from a central bank digital currency (CBDC). This move is intended to create a blockchain financial instrument that is closer to the real economy and directly move towards crypto-native infrastructure.

US lawmakers have made progress in the legislation of the stablecoin regulatory framework "Genius". Although the relevant bill in the Senate failed to vote, the negotiations have now reached a 90% consensus. The proposed legislation will provide clear guidelines for stablecoin issuers and address issues related to consumer protection and financial stability.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong personally traveled to Washington to promote the bill, meeting with senators and regulators to advocate for innovation-friendly rules. Messari Crypto founder Ryan Selkis pointed out that while Coinbase may benefit from the "gray area," Democrats may use cryptocurrency as a political issue against Republicans. Although there are still differences in supervision and compliance, bipartisan consensus in the field of digital assets is increasing, and lawmakers are optimistic that the bill may soon pass the Senate through continued pressure from industry leaders.