1. Market Observation
Trump announced his nomination of Stephen Miran, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to fill a vacant seat on the Federal Reserve Board, succeeding Adriana Kugler, who will serve for the remainder of her term until January 2026. Miran has long supported Trump's interest rate cuts and proposed structural reforms for the Federal Reserve, including divesting the central bank's regulatory responsibilities. This proposal is seen by some observers as a significant challenge to the central bank's independence. Although Miran's term only runs until January of next year, and Senate confirmation proceedings may delay his participation in the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, the market has interpreted this as a clear signal of a shift toward easing monetary policy. Furthermore, Trump signed an executive order directing the Department of Labor and other agencies to review and facilitate investments in alternative assets, such as cryptocurrencies, for retirement savings plans like 401(k)s.
Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, predicts that if crypto assets comprise 1% to 10% of 401(k) plans, it could bring in $80 billion to $800 billion. Analyst Phyrex believes this move is as impactful as the approval of a spot ETF, marking Bitcoin's official entry into mainstream, compliant investment channels and becoming an investment option for retirement plans. This will usher in a large amount of stable, long-term capital, help reduce market volatility, and further strengthen Bitcoin's position as a store of value as "digital gold." It also paves the way for other countries to follow suit and for the compliant development of RWAs and DeFi.
In the domestic market, Hong Kong-listed companies like Caocao Travel are rushing to deploy RWAs, driving their share prices higher. HashKey Chief Analyst Jeffrey Ding noted that companies with deep RWA tokenization capabilities and strong R&D capabilities in areas such as smart contracts, cross-chain technology, and metaverse applications will have a competitive advantage. These companies can leverage technological innovation to bring traditional assets like real estate and bonds onto the blockchain, thereby improving asset liquidity and optimizing investment portfolios. Ding also warned investors to be wary of companies that simply chase hype without substantial technological investment or long-term strategic planning. Such companies often rely too heavily on market hype, and their projects, detached from real user needs, can undermine investor confidence and raise regulatory risks. Therefore, listed companies should ensure their Web 3.0 initiatives are deeply integrated with their core businesses and avoid blindly following trends.
Bitcoin broke through $117,500 this morning. CryptoQuant's weekly report indicates that after reaching a record high of approximately $123,000 in July, BTC prices have entered a "bullish cooling" phase and a period of narrow range-bound trading, driven by slowing liquidity and profit-taking. The potential for a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is a potential bullish catalyst. Glassnode's monitoring indicates that overall supply in the $110,000 to $116,000 range remains low, suggesting the market may need more time to accumulate and form a new support base. Failure to break through resistance at $116,900 could lead to a further decline to $110,000, though the short-term holder cost level of $106,000 remains supportive. Analyst KillaXBT noted that holding the monthly opening price of $115,600 is key to maintaining the upward trend, while trader Rekt Capital believes $117,200 is a key resistance level that needs to be confirmed. CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn observed that the current Bitcoin price has broken through the cost price of $117,600 for short-term holders, potentially triggering profit-taking. On-chain data analysis firm Sentora noted that while approximately 95% of addresses are currently profitable, significant resistance exists in the $116,000-$119,000 range, as a large number of holders remain in a loss-making position despite buying into this range. Trader CrypNuevo also noted that market liquidity, after reaching $116,800, is moving towards the next liquidity target of $119,000. However, increasing Bitcoin outflows from exchanges and continued net inflows to whale addresses indicate tightening supply, with the risk-reward structure tilted to the upside. A successful break above $119,000 could trigger a new round of gains.
Ethereum broke through a recent all-time high this morning. Analyst Jelle noted that as the price approaches the psychologically important $4,000 mark, a breakout could prove to be a strong support level. Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe believes Ethereum's strength is a prelude to a surge in the altcoin market, signaling potential gains of 200% to 500% in the coming months. Altcoin Vector analysis also shows that the ETH/BTC ratio has rebounded approximately 75% from its May low, successfully breaking out of its downward trend, injecting positive momentum into the altcoin sector. Institutional interest is also strong. Nate Geraci revealed that since June, Ethereum treasuries and spot ETFs have accumulated approximately 1.6% of the total Ethereum supply, while Nasdaq-listed Fundamental Global plans to raise up to $5 billion to purchase Ethereum. Against this backdrop, Fundstrat's Tom Lee even optimistically predicted that Ethereum could reach $16,000.
2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT on August 8)
(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $116,954 (+24.59% YTD), daily spot trading volume $38.732 billion
Ethereum: $3,944.90 (+16.98% YTD), with a daily spot trading volume of $37.192 billion
Fear of Greed Index: 74 (Greed)
Average gas: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.23 Gwei
Market share: BTC 60.0%, ETH 12.2%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: IP, XRP, ETH, BTC, OMNI
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 51.08%/48.92%
Sector gains and losses: Layer 2 sector rose 9.39%; PayFi sector rose 9.97%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 115,938 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$408 million, including US$53.41 million in BTC, US$191 million in ETH, and US$26.59 million in XRP.
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($117,163.94), lower channel line ($114,843.86)
ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($3721.59), lower line ($3647.89)
*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF flows (as of August 7)
Bitcoin ETF: +$281 million
Ethereum ETF: +$222 million, 3 consecutive days of net inflows
4. Today's Outlook
Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 24.52 million tokens at 8:00 AM on August 8th, representing 1.30% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $12.2 million.
Space and Time (SXT) will unlock approximately 24.64 million tokens at 9:00 PM on August 8th, worth approximately $2 million.
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) will unlock approximately 1.45 million tokens, valued at approximately $41 million, on August 8th.
Movement (MOVE) will unlock approximately 50 million tokens at 8:00 PM on August 9th, representing 1.89% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $6.5 million.
Render (RENDER) will unlock approximately 492,000 tokens at 8:00 AM on August 10th, accounting for 0.09% of the current circulating supply and worth approximately $1.7 million.
The biggest gainers in the top 100 by market capitalization today: Pendle up 27.4%, Mantle up 21.1%, Aerodrome Finance up 17%, Lido DAO up 16.9%, and Stellar up 15.2%.
5. Hot News
Fundamental Global plans to issue up to $5 billion in securities to buy more Ethereum
Chainlink Launches Strategic LINK Reserve, Over $1 Million in LINK Deposited
INFINIT: IN airdrop claims will open today at 18:00 for a period of one month
Orca DAO proposes 55,000 SOL staking and a two-year ORCA buyback program
Ethereum's on-chain transaction volume reached $238 billion in July, the highest since December 2021
Bitcoin and Ethereum's August options markets show bearish bias
This article is supported by HashKey Exchange , Hong Kong's largest licensed virtual asset exchange and Asia's most trusted crypto-fiat gateway. HashKey Exchange is committed to setting new standards for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform assurance.
