When will companies using Ethereum DAT treasury strategies sell ETH?

This article explores six potential scenarios under which companies employing Ethereum Discretionary Asset Treasury (DAT) strategies might decide to sell their ETH holdings.

Good Ending 1 - Pocket: Companies may cash out when asset prices significantly exceed their investment cost to meet shareholder or tax obligations. Such transfers, aimed at optimizing taxes, are not necessarily bearish for the market.
Good Ending 2 - Love Changes: Successful investors might diversify their portfolios. A company that profited from an Ethereum DAT could shift its strategy to invest in other altcoins.
Normal Ending 1 - Hedge Shipment: If a company believes its holdings have peaked, it may stop buying and begin discreetly selling through off-chain instruments like contracts and options to lock in gains.
Normal Ending 2 - No One Cares: A prolonged period where the market Net Asset Value (mNAV) is below 1 could force a company to sell some assets to improve its balance sheet, as a psychological price anchor is ineffective.
Bad Ending 1 - Funding Pressure: External financial pressures, similar to Tesla selling 75% of its Bitcoin in 2022, could compel a company to liquidate its ETH holdings to raise capital.
Bad Ending 2 - Stop Loss: If the market price falls far below the average cost of building a position, a company may be forced to stop losses and exit, hoping to re-enter at a lower price.

The author clarifies these are long-term predictions and not a near-term bearish outlook on DAT strategies, concluding that three key indicators to watch for a potential sell-off are the cost of establishing a position, executive turnover, and mNAV remaining below 1.

Written by 0xTodd

Good Ending 1-Pocket

When the price of crypto assets is significantly higher than their investment cost, they cash out under shareholder/tax requirements, although the transfer address will slightly affect the floating profit.

WeStrategy had previously transferred some coins to "optimize taxes," but it did not cause any settlement or market crash.

But for their capital scale, it doesn’t matter. 3000, average cost 6000 to sell, big capital is already very happy.

Good Ending 2-Love Changes

If they make enough money, human nature is to replicate their own success. Someone who started out with Ethereum DAT might try to invest in other altcoins in the future, and at that point, they might switch gears.

Normal Ending 1 - Hedge Shipment

If they think their holdings are nearing their ceiling, they will stop buying and even prepare to sell.

Even if their on-chain addresses are transparent, it does not prevent them from hedging in a low-key manner through contracts and options, thus retaining a little bit of the fruits of victory.

Normal Ending 2 - No One Cares

If mNAV is lower than 1 for a long time, the company will think that it is a loss to continue issuing additional shares, so it may sell some coins at this time to appropriately pull back mNAV.

According to my experience, of all the anchors in the world, only the "two-way anchor" is effective. No project can be anchored by "psychological anchor" alone.

Bad Ending 1-Funding Pressure

For example, Tesla was forced to sell three-quarters of its Bitcoin holdings in 2022 due to financial pressure. These institutions may face similar financial pressures at some point in the future.

Bad Ending 2-Stop Loss

If you do the opposite, the cost of building a position will be much higher than the current price, and the whole game cannot continue. One day you can only stop the loss and try to get it back through a lower bottom.

Of course, these are just long-term endgame predictions and do not imply a near-term bearish or negative outlook on DAT. While the drums continue to beat, we should keep playing and dancing.

As for when the drumbeat stops? That’s a topic for the next post, focusing on three key indicators: cost of establishing a position, CEO/CFO/Board of Directors turnover, and mNAV remaining below 1 for a prolonged period.