Trading time: Gold breaks through 3540 and hits a new high, Bitcoin becomes a key point at $113,600, and ETH optimism declines

Gold prices surged to new all-time highs, with futures hitting $3,600 and spot gold breaking $3,546. Analysts from Morgan Stanley attribute this to the Fed's expected rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and strong demand, projecting a $3,800 target by late 2025. Ray Dalio warned about U.S. fiscal policies and potential debt crises, noting a shift from U.S. Treasuries to gold among international investors.

Bitcoin faces correction pressure near $112,000, with analysts predicting possible support around $100,000. However, some see the current -12% pullback as healthy, with potential rebounds toward $116,000–$120,000 if it breaks $113,600. More optimistic forecasts suggest a climb to $150,000 after current sell-offs.

Ethereum shows weakening momentum, with declining trading volumes and ETF outflows. Despite short-term pressure, some analysts note a bullish breakout in the ETH/BTC ratio and anticipate gains in Q4.

Altcoins like SOL see speculative interest, and Linea’s partnership with Brevis spurred a 25% rally in an ecosystem token, though LINEA’s own price fell. Key market data shows BTC at $110,835 and ETH at $4,326, with a Fear and Greed Index at 55 (Greed). Bitcoin ETFs saw $333 million in inflows, while Ethereum ETFs had $135 million in outflows.

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

First, we warmly celebrated the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression . Against this backdrop, New York gold futures reached a historic high of $3,600 per ounce, and spot gold also broke through $3,546, setting new all-time highs. David Tait, CEO of the World Gold Council, stated that the Council is promoting the digitization of gold to revolutionize London's $900 billion physical gold market and expand its applications. Morgan Stanley analysts noted that the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut cycle, expected to begin in September, the continued weakening of the US dollar, and strong demand for physical and ETFs are creating a "perfect storm" for precious metals. They forecast a target price of $3,800 for gold and $40.9 for silver in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio issued a rare warning, arguing that the Trump administration's state intervention is pushing the United States toward a 1930s-era governance model and noting that Wall Street has generally remained silent for fear of retaliation. Dalio also expressed concern about the erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence and the potential debt crisis the United States could face in about three years, observing that international investors have begun shifting from U.S. Treasuries to gold. Furthermore, regarding tariff policy, Trump stated that the administration will appeal to the Supreme Court on Wednesday to address the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals' ruling that its tariff policy improperly invoked emergency law. The ruling involved "reciprocal tariffs" on goods from multiple trading partners, including levies imposed on goods from China, Canada, and Mexico under the pretext of combating cross-border fentanyl trafficking. Trump stated that if the ruling ultimately overturned the tariff policy, it would have a severe impact on the U.S. economy and could result in trillions of dollars in tariff refunds .

Bitcoin is currently approaching $112,000. Trader Roman believes that after falling below $112,000, the price may have become resistance, and the price may reach the $100,000 support range in the coming days. Internet economist Timothy Peterson also emphasized, based on historical data, that there is a 100% probability of a Bitcoin correction in the third week of September. However, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that the current correction of approximately -12% is within the normal range in a bull market and contributes to the healthy development of the market. In the current bull market cycle, since the first all-time high in March 2024, the maximum correction has been -28%, while the average correction has ranged from -20% to -25%. Looking ahead, analyst KillaXBT has established a position at $109,500, with a short-term target of $112,000-113,000. Biraajmaan Tamuly predicts that if it breaks through $113,600, the price will rise to $116,300, $117,500, and $119,500. If it fails to break through or continues to weaken, the price could fall back to the $105,000-$100,000 range. Delphi Digital researcher that1616guy believes the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut is a key variable, predicting the next rebound could peak in the $118,000-$120,000 range. Nakamoto CEO David Bailey offered a more optimistic forecast, believing that once the recent sell-off by two major whales is complete, the Bitcoin price could climb to $150,000.

Optimism surrounding Ethereum has also declined in recent days. Trader Eugene observed that Ethereum's upward momentum is weakening due to the compression of market maker net asset value. Matrixport's analysis also confirms this, with data showing that its trading volume has plummeted from $122 billion to $57 billion, with a large-scale liquidation of speculative long positions and a slowdown in ETF inflows. Therefore, the possibility of a short-term return to $5,000 is limited. Despite the short-term pressure, crypto analyst Ted pointed out that from a broader perspective, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has successfully broken through the multi-year downward trend and turned resistance into support. He predicts a new round of gains in the fourth quarter of this year.

In the altcoin market, trader Eugene stated that he has taken a small long position in SOL. He predicted that market attention may be shifting from mainstream tokens to newer, smaller projects like Solana, but emphasized that Bitcoin's price of $110,000 will serve as a strict risk control line. Furthermore, Linea announced a partnership with Brevis to launch the ecosystem incentive program "Ignition," which will distribute a total of 1 billion LINEA tokens across three protocols: Ethereum, Aave, and Euler. This news stimulated a 25% increase in the price of its ecosystem project, Ethereum, but LINEA's own pre-market price fell 17%.

2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT, September 3)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

Bitcoin: $110,835 (+15.24% YTD), daily spot trading volume $48.331 billion
Ethereum: $4,326.20 (+31.69% YTD), with a daily spot trading volume of $33.228 billion
Fear of Greed Index: 55 (Greed)
Average gas: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.27 Gwei
Market share: BTC 58.54%, ETH 13.83%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, ETH, BTC, SOL, POL
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.49%/50.51%
Sector gains and losses: RWA rose 3.23, NFT rose 2.12%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 106,449 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$243 million, including BTC liquidation of US$48.4084 million, ETH liquidation of US$67.27 million, and SOL liquidation of US$17.66 million.
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($112,607.17), lower channel line ($110,377.33)
ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($4437.98), lower channel line ($4350.10)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of September 2)

Bitcoin ETFs: +$333 million, with Fidelity FBTC leading the way with $133 million in net inflows
Ethereum ETF: -$135 million, with no net inflows across all nine ETFs

4. Today's Outlook

Binance Wallet to Launch Hyperbot (BOT) Token Generation Event on September 3rd
Binance Alpha to List Moonchain (MCH) and Portal To Bitcoin (PTB) on September 3rd
Ondo Finance: Will launch an on-chain US stock trading platform on September 3
Binance Futures will delist the LEVERUSDT U-margined perpetual contract on September 3rd
Binance Alpha will list Tradoor (TRADOOR), Gata (GATA) , and Union (U) on September 4th.

The biggest gains among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today: Fartcoin up 6%, Ondo up 5%, Pudgy Penguins up 4.7%, Bitcoin Cash up 4.5%, and Bitget up 3.8%.