1. Market Observation
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for July generated inflationary pressures exceeding market expectations, reaching an annualized rate of 3.3%, significantly exceeding the 2.5% forecast. The 0.9% monthly increase marked the highest level in three years. This data significantly dampened market expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate cut, although CME FedWatch data still indicates a probability of a cut exceeding 85%. Bank of America has issued a warning, stating that a Fed rate cut during an upward inflationary cycle could replicate the "lethal combination" that led to a significant weakening of the US dollar in 2007-2008.
Bitcoin's price retreated yesterday after breaking through a high of $124,000, falling to around $117,200. Its market capitalization briefly surpassed Google, and the global cryptocurrency market capitalization briefly exceeded $4.18 trillion. Crypto Chase identifies $117,000 as a key support level, believing that if it fails to hold, the market's strong upward trend may come to a temporary halt. Analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly suggests that Bitcoin may fluctuate between $119,000 and $117,500 in the short term. If it falls below the $112,000 support level, the price could fall further to the $105,000-$110,000 range. Analyst CJ believes Bitcoin could pull back to $112,000, or even $109,700 or $107,000 before rebounding to the $112,000 range. He recommends focusing on the $114,000-$115,700 range. If it holds this level, it could potentially reach $130,000. Technical analysis from BitMEX suggests Bitcoin may be forming a double top pattern, with the MACD indicator showing bearish divergence. Key support is near $112,000. A break below this level could lead to further price declines. However, Chris Burniske, partner at Placeholder, offered an optimistic forecast, predicting Bitcoin could reach approximately $142,690 in October. Analyst Benjamin Cowen noted that Bitcoin typically follows a summer rally after the halving, followed by a September pullback and a peak in the fourth quarter. However, trader Kale Abe countered that market trends are more dependent on the funding status of the Bitcoin Reserve Company.
Yesterday, Ethereum was just $12 away from $4,800, a mere step away from its all-time high. However, following the release of the PPI data, Ethereum retreated to around $4,450. Technical analyst Rekt Capital noted that Ethereum needs $4,631 to become support before further gains are confirmed. Otherwise, a pullback to the weekly CME gap of $4,000 or even $3,750 is possible. Analyst Block Diversity also suggested that Ethereum may experience a correction within the $4,000 to $4,400 demand range before gaining momentum. Man of Bitcoin analysis shows that $4,158 is a key support level, and as long as the price remains above this level, further gains remain possible. On a higher timeframe, Standard Chartered Bank predicts that Ethereum will break through its all-time high of $4,866 in Q3 and has significantly raised its year-end price target to $7,500. Analyst Duo Nine believes that after breaking through $5,000, Ethereum will enter a price discovery phase, potentially pushing the price to $7,000 or even higher. Chris Burniske predicts Ethereum's price range for October will be between $6,900 and $8,000. Furthermore, according to Polymarket data, the market predicts a 64% probability of it breaking through $5,000 by the end of August, and an 87% probability of reaching a new all-time high. However, data from CryptoQuant shows that Ethereum has surpassed Bitcoin in terms of trading volume and perpetual contract open interest growth, but also observes an increase in the amount of ETH flowing into exchanges daily, which may indicate some selling pressure is building.
Furthermore, HashKey Chief Analyst Jeffrey Ding expressed strong confidence in the future of Ethereum, noting that the likelihood of Ethereum breaking its all-time high in the second half of 2025 has significantly increased thanks to the upcoming Pectra and Fusaka upgrades. The Pectra upgrade will reduce L2 costs and optimize user experience through account abstraction and increased blob throughput, thereby accelerating the adoption of DeFi and RWA applications. The Fusaka upgrade, expected to launch in Q4, will introduce PeerDAS technology, further enhancing data availability and network decentralization. These technological advancements, combined with the synergy of AI and zero-knowledge proofs, are expected to drive the continued expansion of the Ethereum network's TVL, strengthen its store of value properties, and support its price towards over $5,000.
In the altcoin market, Coinbase analysis indicates that while Bitcoin's market capitalization has declined, the total altcoin market capitalization has increased by 50% since early July, suggesting that "altcoin season" may fully arrive in September. Regarding specific projects, BNB's price reached a new all-time high yesterday, surpassing $865, as Bitcoin reached a new high. SKALE has risen over 120% since integrating It Remains on August 13th, even as altcoins generally fell along with the broader market yesterday, maintaining a nearly 50% increase.
2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT, August 15)
(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $118,952 (+27.02% YTD), daily spot trading volume $65.176 billion
Ethereum: $4,629.73 (+38.53% YTD), with daily spot trading volume of $67.165 billion
Fear of Greed Index: 60 (Greed)
Average gas: BTC: 3 sat/vB, ETH: 0.34 Gwei
Market share: BTC 58.7%, ETH 13.8%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings : ETH, XRP, SOL, BTC, ADA
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 49.1%/50.9%
Sector gains and losses: The crypto market suffered setbacks across the board, with the Meme sector leading the decline, down 8.98%, and the NFT sector down 8.19%.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 217,316 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$1.001 billion, including US$175 million in BTC, US$344 million in ETH, and US$63.72 million in SOL.
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($119,225.39), lower channel line ($116,864.49)
ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($4240.44), lower channel line ($4156.47)
*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF flows (as of August 14)
Bitcoin ETF: +$231 million, 7 consecutive days of net inflows
Ethereum ETF: +$640 million, 8 consecutive days of net inflows
4. Today's Outlook
Binance Alpha will list TCOM Global (TCOM) and PublicAI (PUBLIC) on August 15th.
Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock approximately 1.67 million tokens at 8:00 AM on August 15th, representing 0.51% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $39.2 million.
Sei (SEI) will unlock approximately 55.56 million tokens at 8:00 PM on August 15th, accounting for 1.21% of the current circulating supply and worth approximately $17.5 million.
Starknet (STRK) will unlock approximately 127 million tokens at 8:00 AM on August 15th, representing 5.98% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $16.8 million.
Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock approximately 92.65 million tokens on August 16, representing 2.04% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $41.9 million.
The biggest decliners among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today: Conflux -11.6%, Curve DAO -10.7%, dogwifhat -10.7%, OKB -10.1%, Worldcoin -10%.
5. Hot News
A new wallet withdrew 53,434 ETH worth $244 million from Kraken in the past two days
SEC Delays Decision on Bitwise and 21Shares’ Solana ETF Proposal to October 16
Dinari to launch Avalanche-based blockchain, positioning itself as a “DTCC equity token”
The annual rate of the US PPI in July was 3.3%, reaching the highest level in three years , significantly exceeding the market expectation of 2.5%.
LIP-021 proposal approved, Lista DAO will destroy 20% of tokens
Jeffs' Brands announces $75 million investment in AI-powered cryptocurrency vault
This article is supported by HashKey Exchange , Hong Kong's largest licensed virtual asset exchange and Asia's most trusted crypto-fiat gateway. HashKey Exchange is committed to setting new standards for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform assurance.
