1. Market Observation

On Tuesday, US technology stocks suffered their worst sell-off in months, driven by concerns about the returns from commercializing artificial intelligence (AI) and warnings of a bubble from industry leaders. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index plummeted 1.4%. An MIT report suggesting 95% of AI investments have zero returns, coupled with comments from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman about "overexcitement," exacerbated market panic, leading to an outflow of funds from high-momentum tech stocks like Nvidia and a shift into defensive sectors like consumer staples, putting pressure on riskier assets like Bitcoin.

Currently, market focus is shifting to Thursday's Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting. Although traders are heavily betting on a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, higher-than-expected inflation data, rare disagreements within the Fed over the timing of a rate cut, and political pressure from the White House have cast a deep shadow of uncertainty over the outlook for monetary policy. Against this backdrop, Goldman Sachs strategists point to five-year U.S. Treasury bonds as an attractive trading option, as they offer protection against rising market risks.

Market sentiment regarding Bitcoin is mixed. Conservative trader Roman believes that if Bitcoin falls below $112,000, it could fall further to $97,000. Rekt Capital also points out that a sustained close below $114,000 would confirm a downward trend. Regarding support, Keith Alan of Material Indicators believes the key range is $107,000 to $110,000, with the 100-day moving average (around $110,950) serving as a crucial barrier. Significant liquidity at $105,000 provides downside protection. In contrast, bullish analyst BitQuant firmly believes Bitcoin will not fall below $100,000 during this bull market, offering a target price of $145,000 to $250,000. TheKingfisher analysis also points to the large-scale short liquidation zone above $117,000 as a potential "magnetic point" that could attract upward price action.

Many analysts view Ethereum's recent pullback as a healthy correction. Simon Dedic, founder of Moonrock Capital, noted that a 10% correction is normal after a three-fold increase over three months. A rebound from support in the $4,000-$4,100 range would be a classic bullish confirmation. Axel Bitblaze also stated that the current ETH price correction to around $4,100 is a healthy correction, predicting that ETH will break new all-time highs in the next phase, driving liquidity into its ecosystem tokens. Specifically, Mark Newton, an analyst at Tom Lee's Fundstrat, predicts that Ethereum may fall to a buy zone between $4,075 and $4,150 by mid-week, followed by a potential rebound to around $5,100. Analyst Ted added that significant liquidity and a CME gap exist in the $4,100-$4,150 range, suggesting that a gap-filled gap could trigger a new upward trend. (PANews Note: The gap was filled on the morning of August 20th). A more optimistic prediction comes from CryptoRover, who observes whale activity and a short liquidation “magnetic point” in the $4,300 to $4,360 range, suggesting this could propel prices towards $4,750 to $8,000.

Regarding the recent crypto market pullback, Jeffrey Ding, Chief Analyst at HashKey, attributed it primarily to a combination of profit-taking, market deleveraging, and macroeconomic factors. He believes that the concentrated selling of accumulated profits at high levels, coupled with the liquidation of highly leveraged positions, amplified price fluctuations. Furthermore, fading expectations of a Fed rate cut and the diminishing marginal impact of positive policy signals have also dampened risk appetite for crypto assets. Nevertheless, he emphasized that this pullback represents a healthy adjustment within the upward trend, rather than a fundamental trend reversal.

Looking at overall market dynamics, the Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 44 today, entering a "panic state" and signaling a cautious market sentiment. Among altcoins, Placeholder partner Chris Burniske noted that Solana has emerged as the fastest-recovering major crypto asset from the recent market bottom and expects it to continue its lead in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Wall Street institutions are divided on the long-term impact of stablecoins. Bernstein is optimistic that the crypto bull market will continue until 2027, and has therefore raised its target prices for companies like Coinbase and Robinhood. Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, believes that stablecoins pose a "limited threat" to traditional payment systems and is more optimistic about Robinhood's innovation in the crypto space.

2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT, August 20)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $113,621 (+21.42% YTD), daily spot trading volume $45.49 billion

• Ethereum: $4,161.55 (+24.78% YTD), with a daily spot trading volume of $41.352 billion

• Fear and Corruption Index: 44 (panic)

• Average gas: BTC: 2 sat/vB, ETH: 0.2 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 60.02%, ETH 13.19%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: ETH, XRP, API3, BTC, STRIKE

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.58%/50.42%

• Sector gains and losses: The crypto market suffered setbacks across the board, with the GameFi sector leading the decline (3.35%) and the PayFi sector (2.46%).

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 128,043 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$450 million, including US$102 million in BTC, US$174 million in ETH, and US$17.5 million in XRPL.

• BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($118,098.33), lower channel line ($115,759.75)

• ETH medium- and long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($4275.66), lower line ($4190.99)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of August 19)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$523 million

• Ethereum ETF: $422 million

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha to List DecentralGPT (DGC) on August 20

• Qubic will implement the Epoch 175 halving on August 20, reducing the effective weekly issuance by approximately 50%.

• AI project Sapien will conduct a TGE on August 20, with 5% airdropped to early contributors

• Binance Alpha to List AriaAI (ARIA) on August 21st

• The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. (August 21, 02:00)

• LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock approximately 25.71 million tokens at 7:00 PM on August 20th, representing 8.53% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $56.6 million.

• KAITO (KAITO) will unlock approximately 23.35 million tokens at 8:00 PM on August 20th, accounting for 10.87% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately US$26.2 million.

• Bittensor (TAO) will unlock approximately 210,000 tokens on August 21st, worth approximately $81.5 million.

The biggest gainers in the top 100 by market capitalization today: Mantle up 7.8%, OKB up 6.2%, Lido DAO up 2.1%, Jupiter up 2%, and Solana up 1.6%.

5. Hot News

• CyberKongz will issue a new token, KONG, to replace BANANA, and 2% will be airdropped to the Ethereum NFT community

• The cost price of ETH held by BitMine and SharpLink is $3,730 and $3,478 respectively

• SkyBridge Capital plans to tokenize $300 million in assets on Avalanche

• Thumzup plans to acquire Dogehash in all-stock deal, expanding into Dogecoin and Litecoin mining

• VCI Global announces $2 billion partnership to promote crypto infrastructure and asset tokenization based on 18,000 BTC

• Wyoming launches its first state-level stablecoin, FRNT, which is now available on seven blockchains, including Solana and Arbitrum.

• The number of ETH exiting the Ethereum PoS network has increased to over 900,000, with a waiting time of approximately 15 days and 18 hours.

• BNC, a listed company, announced that its BNB holdings increased from 200,000 to 325,000.

• ETHZilla's stock code changed from "ATNF" to "ETHZ", with a total holding of 94,675 ETH

This article is supported by HashKey Exchange , Hong Kong's largest licensed virtual asset exchange and Asia's most trusted crypto-fiat gateway. HashKey Exchange is committed to setting new standards for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform assurance.