Trading Moments: BTC surges, market anticipates filling the 80,000-84,000 CME gap.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

The escalating tensions in the Middle East have fueled market anxiety. The ceasefire agreement is set to expire on the morning of April 23rd, Beijing time. Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire and the maintenance of the naval blockade, warning that bombing would resume if a unified solution was not reached. Iran responded by agreeing to suspend military action but emphasized that control of the Strait of Hormuz is a key bargaining chip in the war and that the war is not over.

All three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 293.18 points (-0.59%) to 49,149.38, the S&P 500 dropped 45.13 points (-0.63%) to 7,064.01, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 144.43 points (-0.59%) to 24,259.96, ending its longest winning streak of 13 days since 1992.

International crude oil prices surged, with Brent crude breaking through the psychological barrier of $100 during the session; WTI crude also rose 5%, reaching a high of $92. Rystad Energy warned that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would further exacerbate oil supply disruptions this month. Spot gold once plummeted by more than 3.1%, breaking below the $4,700 support level, while spot silver suffered an even steeper drop of over 5%. Both gold and silver have since recovered slightly. Analyst Cryp Nuevo pointed out that gold has broken below the 1D 50EMA, and if it falls back to $4,500, it is highly likely to further test the aggressive target of $4,100.

The Federal Reserve's policy path has become even more uncertain, with expectations of interest rate cuts being ruthlessly suppressed. Fed Chair nominee Warsh signaled a hawkish stance at his Senate hearing, not only refusing to compromise with Trump's demands for rate cuts but also advocating for reform of the inflation framework and a reduction in the balance sheet.

Driven by strong demand for AI chips and the depreciation of the yen, the Nikkei 225 index approached the 60,000-point mark, breaking through the historical high of 59,700. The South Korean KOSPI continued to set new historical highs today, breaking through 6,400 points. Goldman Sachs strategist Bruce Kirk pointed out that North American funds are rapidly returning to the Japanese stock market; and Goldman Sachs has even raised its target price for the South Korean KOSPI to 8,000 points.

AI and the Stock Market

Amid geopolitical turmoil, AI and tech giants remain the strongest pillars of the capital markets. Despite overall market pressure, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index bucked the trend, rising 0.5% for the 15th consecutive day and hitting a record high , while the S&P 500 Energy Index also surged 1.31% due to improved oil prices.

Tech giants continue to ramp up their investments in AI. Amazon announced an additional investment in AI startup Anthropic, further boosting market confidence in AI-driven profit growth and driving its stock price up 0.66% against the market trend. Meanwhile, OpenAI launched ChatGPT Images 2.0, featuring thought-level intelligence.

Apple's stock price fell 2.5% due to market concerns over CEO Tim Cook's resignation and leadership change, pushing its total market capitalization below $4 trillion. Tesla's stock price dropped 1.55% due to weaker-than-expected quarterly deliveries and a 24.3% decline in new car sales in California, bringing its year-to-date decline to over 14%, making it the worst-performing stock among the seven major U.S. tech giants. Tesla will release its Q1 2026 earnings report tomorrow, with the market expecting revenue of $22.27 billion and earnings per share of $0.25, both higher than the same period last year.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin surged today, breaking through the $77,000 mark and filling the $77,300 CME gap left last week. Despite the high market sentiment and investors' general expectation that the price will continue to rise and fill the $80,000 to $84,000 CME gap left from January 30 to February 3, several analysts warned that such a "perfect pullback" scenario is unlikely to occur in the current bearish or volatile market environment. The price may encounter selling pressure and fall back quickly when it approaches a significant resistance level.

Bearish view

The bears believe that heightened macro-geopolitical risks, declining on-chain momentum, and potential stagnation in purchasing power due to discounts on Strategy funding instruments could drag Bitcoin below the $70,000 support level.

LP: While the Coinbase Premium Index remains green on higher timeframes, momentum is waning. Since 98K, each time it has turned green has coincided with a local major top, and current data does not support a bullish outlook; it is expected to decline in the coming weeks.
Killa: The stop-loss for short positions has been adjusted to 83K. If the weekly close is above this level, the bearish outlook will be invalidated. April 29th is the next key economic turning point. Based on historical experience, the market will face a severe test in May, and prices may fall below 70K.
mooncake: If BTC is capped again at 77.2K-77.5K, the rally may be coming to an end.
Cointelegraph analysts: Strategy's preferred stock, STRC, falling below $100 par value may force it to suspend its cryptocurrency purchase plan this week. Technically, BTC's daily chart shows a flag pattern correction; if it loses support, the price faces the risk of testing the $67,000-$69,000 range.

bullish view

The bulls firmly believe that ample institutional liquidity, a short squeeze brewing from negative funding rates, and strong seasonal patterns indicate that Bitcoin's real rebound has only just begun.

Ash Crypto: This bear market may be shorter because the market is being driven by institutional liquidity. If regulatory benefits such as the Clarity Act coincide with interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin will experience a strong catch-up rebound.
AlphaBTC: Upside potential may be limited near the $84,000 CME gap, where there is significant profit-taking resistance of 1.1 million Bitcoins.
CW8900: BTC's SOPR ratio has bottomed out and rebounded, and NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) has turned positive for the first time since January, marking the end of the downtrend and the start of the "real rebound" in this cycle.
Michaël van de Poppe: Although the market is in a consolidation phase, the upward trend is clear, and Bitcoin is expected to challenge the $85,000 area within the next two to three weeks.
Grayscale Research: Bitcoin has formed a sustained bottom in the $63,000 to $70,000 range. The current price of $76,000 is slightly above the average cost of recent buyers at $74,000, and the easing of selling pressure suggests the beginning of a bull market.
Decode / Osemka: Despite the price oscillation and upward movement, funding rates remain unusually negative. The market is currently heavily shorted, and the "cannon" of a short squeeze is ready to fire; the bulls only need to ignite the fuse to head straight for $85,000.

Market Dynamics

After a 12% surge in a single month, the Russell 2000 index successfully broke through a five-year resistance level and hit a record high of 2817 points during Tuesday's trading session before slightly retreating to close down 1%. Analyst Bull Theory pointed out that small-cap stocks performed strongly against the backdrop of weak technology stocks, with funds flowing into companies benefiting from domestic economic recovery, low oil prices, and interest rate cuts, indicating that market risk appetite is picking up.

Analyst Mark further stated that the Federal Reserve plans to inject massive liquidity this week, potentially causing its balance sheet to expand again. While the "alt market season" has been delayed, it hasn't been canceled, and the market still needs to pay attention to future trends. He believes this liquidity expansion will provide potential support for risk assets, including the cryptocurrency market.

However, there are differing opinions in the market regarding the correlation between the Russell 2000 and altcoins.

Ash Crypto believes the Russell 2000 index is a key indicator of risky assets like cryptocurrencies, and historical data shows that Ethereum and altcoins typically follow the Russell 2000's upward trend to new highs. However, analyst Tony Severino warns that for the first time since July 2016, the historical correlation between the Russell 2000 and altcoins has turned negative , and the downward trend is intensifying. He reminds investors that in the current complex macroeconomic environment, they should not blindly rely on past market patterns.

Furthermore, analyst Zach Humphries points out that the altcoin total market capitalization chart shows a clear bearish retest pattern, and if key technical levels are not effectively recovered, the current rebound may only be a signal to exit.

Key data (as of 13:00 HKT on April 22)

(Data source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: +$11.8442 million, marking the sixth consecutive day of net inflows.
Ethereum ETF: +$43.3589 million, marking the 9th consecutive day of net inflows.
Fear of Greed Index: 32 (Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: CHIP, BTC, PIEVERSE, XRP, ETH
Sector Performance: Most crypto stocks retreated, but SocialFi and AI sectors saw slight gains.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 92,545 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $375 million, including $176 million in BTC liquidations, $84.49 million in ETH liquidations, and $12.47 million in RAVE liquidations.

Today's Outlook

Binance will delist BIFI, FIO, FUN, MDT, OXT, and WAN on April 23.
Polymarket V2 exchange upgrade will launch on April 22.
Nifty Gateway has committed to permanently hosting NFTs after its shutdown, and the withdrawal window has been extended to April 23.
IBM and Tesla will release their Q1 earnings reports after the market closes on April 23rd, Beijing time.
US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18 (in thousands) (April 23, 20:30)
Limitless (LMTS) will unlock approximately 85.37 million tokens, worth approximately $8.5 million, on April 22.
Hyperlane (HYPER) will unlock approximately 89.75 million tokens, worth approximately $8.6 million, on April 22.
aPriori (APR) will unlock approximately 31.88 million tokens, worth about $5.3 million, on April 23.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: MemeCore up 26.3%, Sei up 9.9%, Monero up 9.5%, Dash up 8.7%, and Cosmos up 6.9%.