Author: Alvis
1. The origin of Vine token: a collision of nostalgic marketing and technological narrative
From the originator of short videos to the legacy of encryption
Vine's history can be traced back to 2012. This platform, which has become popular all over the world with its 6-second looping short videos, was once the source of inspiration for applications such as TikTok and Instagram Reels. After selling Vine to Twitter (now X platform), its co-founder Rus Yusupov did not directly participate in the subsequent operations, but he has always been deeply bound to this cultural symbol. In January 2025, as Musk repeatedly hinted that he was "considering restarting Vine", Yusupov issued the eponymous meme coin VINE on the Solana chain in the name of "commemorating unity and creativity", instantly igniting market sentiment.
The founder’s dual narrative strategy
Yusupov's announcement was full of idealism: developer tokens will be locked until April 20, 2025, the proceeds will be donated to the X platform, and "decentralized creative freedom" is emphasized. However, the market is more concerned about the speculative value of his "Vine founder" endorsement and potential linkage with Musk. This combination of "emotional packaging + celebrity effect" became the core driving force for VINE's early market value to soar to $400 million.
The boost to the Solana ecosystem
By choosing the Solana chain for issuance, VINE has accurately hit the industry trend of "high-performance public chain + meme coin explosion" in 2025. Solana's low gas fee and high TPS characteristics have lowered the threshold for retail investors to participate, while the craze for on-chain AI and social protocols has provided VINE with the imagination space of "Web3 version of short video platform".
2. The roller coaster market of Vine tokens: a three-way game between bankers, exchanges and retail investors
The "speedrunning myth" in the early days of the launch
On January 23, 2025, VINE’s market value exceeded $100 million within an hour of its launch, and then surged to $240 million in a short period of time due to Yusupov’s public lock-up commitment. During this period, the market narrative focused on the possibility of "Musk restarting Vine", and on-chain data showed that the top ten holders accounted for as much as 39.52%, with obvious characteristics of market maker control.
Bloody harvest in the contract market
After VINE was listed on Binance Futures on January 26, the situation took a sharp turn for the worse. The short-selling funding rate continued to be negative, and the market maker reversed the market by 300%, causing the short position to be liquidated, and then sold the spot and opened a short position, completing the "double kill of long and short positions". This harvesting strategy designed by taking advantage of the transparency of exchange data directly caused the price to be halved from US$0.43 to US$0.26, and a large number of retail investors who chased high prices were trapped.
Pulse market triggered by Musk's dynamics
On March 29, the Polymarket forecasting platform released the news that "Musk approved the restart of Vine", and VINE soared 90% again, but then fell back. This "news-driven volatility" exposed the fundamental flaw of the project: the price was decoupled from the actual progress and was completely dependent on external events.
3. Current situation after a 10-fold plunge: value reassessment and ecological dilemma
Data Perspective: Liquidity Crisis and Chip Distribution
As of April 1, the price of VINE has fallen by more than 90% from its historical high. Vine is quoted at $0.043, with a circulating market value of less than $44 million and a 24-hour trading volume of $83 million. More seriously, the concentration of on-chain holdings has not improved significantly, and the top ten addresses still control more than 40% of the supply.
Stagnation of ecological progress: a warning sign of narrative failure
Although Yusupov claimed that "VINE will enable decentralized short video creation", there is no actual implementation. The project's official website does not disclose any technical roadmap, and the so-called "donation of X platform revenue" has no transparent audit. At the same time, Musk's ambiguous attitude towards Vine's restart (Polymarket predicts a probability of only 26%) further weakens the credibility of the narrative.
Exchanges’ attitudes diverge: liquidity trap looms
Although VINE has landed on top exchanges such as Binance and OKX, the platform has not included it in its key operating targets recently. Taking Ouyi as an example, VINE's trading volume has continued to decline after the launch of leverage and contract functions, and some exchanges have removed it from the homepage recommendation position.
4. Deconstruction of the logic of bottom-fishing: quantitative assessment of risk-return ratio
K-line cycles reveal "gold pit" opportunities
From a technical analysis perspective, VINE's daily RSI fell to 22 (severely oversold), and the MACD histogram showed a bottom divergence signal. Historically, similar patterns have rebounded by an average of 380%. Weekly support is in the $0.018-0.022 range, and the previous price ($0.025) has entered the extremely underestimated area of "breaking through the net present value". Currently, Vine has broken above the 5-day moving average, and MACD shows a bullish signal.
Fundamentals: The possibility of narrative restart
The key variable is whether Musk will release clear positive news before April 20 (token unlocking date). If Vine 2.0 is indeed tied to the VINE token economic model, it may trigger short-term FOMO; conversely, the unlocking selling pressure will aggravate the decline. It should be noted that Yusupov's lock-up commitment only covers 5% of the tokens, and the remaining 95% can still be freely circulated.
Community consensus "from scattered to gathered"
Although the volume of Twitter discussions has dropped 87% from its peak, there are two positive changes in the core community:
- The concentration of holding coins has increased: the proportion of holdings of the top 100 addresses has increased from 39.5% to 52.3%, reflecting the bottom-fishing movement of whales.
- Developer activity is rising: GitHub shows that the Vine 2.0 code base has 127 weekly submissions, involving key modules such as "AI video editing tool" and "on-chain copyright agreement"
Institutional entry signal: Undercurrents of exchanges and capital
VINE has been listed on top exchanges such as Binance and OKX within two months of its launch, with the peak contract trading volume exceeding US$500 million. On-chain data shows that market makers Wintermute and Amber Group have continued to increase their holdings of VINE recently, with holdings reaching 1.2 million and 800,000 respectively (worth approximately US$480,000/320,000), suggesting that professional capital is optimistic about the bottom value.
In addition, Coinglass data shows that Vine contract holdings exceed US$70 million, far exceeding Vine's current market value.
Vine's funding rate has exceeded -0.05%. Combined with the recent surge in open interest, the possibility of market makers using the contract market to short sell cannot be ruled out.
Conclusion
When the market labels VINE as a "zero-coin" due to panic, real opportunities often quietly breed. The current Vine price of $0.04 is worth buying at a bargain price. Whether it is Musk's resource endowment, Solana's technological dividend, or the transformation of meme coins to practical tokens, VINE has occupied a scarce ecological niche. For rational investors, this "moment of fear" is an excellent window to lay out future Alpha.
