PANews March 10 news, according to Cointelegraph, although the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index on March 10 continued to show "extreme fear", a Bitcoin market simulation still predicts a bullish trend in the second half of 2025. Cryptocurrency researcher Mark Quant used Monte Carlo simulation to analyze Bitcoin prices and provided a six-month forecast for the crypto asset. The Monte Carlo model is a computational method that simulates price predictions and assesses risks through random sampling. It can generate multiple possible scenarios based on variable factors such as volatility and market trends. Based on an initial price of $82,655, the study estimates that the average final price of Bitcoin by the end of September 2025 will be $258,445. However, from a broader perspective, Bitcoin prices are expected to fluctuate between $51,430 (ie, the 5th percentile return) and $713,000 (95th percentile return).

However, it is important to note that Monte Carlo models rely heavily on the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, which assumes that asset values follow a random path with a constant drift parameter. In this analysis, Bitcoin's inherent volatility is incorporated into the model, capturing long-term historical performance and patterns while adapting to future changes. In essence, Monte Carlo analysis is like "rolling the dice" with uncertainty. Last week, Quant also highlighted the correlation between the total cryptocurrency market capitalization and the Global Liquidity Index, which suggests that the total market capitalization could reach a new high of more than $4 trillion by the second quarter of 2025.