Author: Biteye core contributor viee

Editor: Biteye core contributor Denise

ETH has rebounded from its April lows and is currently trading above $4,500. While 2024 marks the beginning of a Bitcoin ETF-fueled bull market, 2025 is likely the year Ethereum takes the stage. This article uses six valuation methods to analyze whether ETH can reach $10,000!

01. ETH/BTC ratio

First, let’s compare the relative valuations of ETH and BTC.

The ETH/BTC ratio is actually very stable in the long run, but the current ratio is only 0.0372, which is in the lower middle position in history in the past five years, so ETH may be "undervalued" at present.

Based on the five-year average ETH/BTC ratio of 0.0518, assuming BTC remains near $120,000, the corresponding ETH price is $6,214. If we refer to the ETH/BTC ratio of 0.06-0.08 during the previous bull market, and still assuming BTC remains near $120,000, the corresponding ETH price is $7,200-9,600.

02. Ethereum ETF and Institutional Holdings

As ETH prices surged, OTC funds poured into the Ethereum ETF. Many overlooked the actual impact of the Ethereum ETF and institutional buying, which not only boosted sentiment but also generated significant buying pressure.

According to data from @SoSovalueCrypto, the Ethereum spot ETF hit a new all-time high, with net inflows reaching $1.019 billion on August 11th, EST. The current net asset value of the Ethereum spot ETF is $25.712 billion, and holdings have reached approximately 6 million ETH, representing 4.96% of the current circulating supply of ETH. Compared to BTC's ETF holdings of 6.48%, this percentage shows room for growth. Furthermore, 70 Ethereum reserve entities currently hold approximately 3.49 million ETH, representing 2.89% of the circulating supply. BMNR has publicly stated its goal to ultimately hold 5% of the global circulating supply of ETH. After deducting the 36.17 million ETH locked in stake, the free float remains at approximately 75.1 million ETH.

The following price calculation is based on a simple assumption: the proportion of free float reduction will increase the price of a single coin by the same proportion.

That is, new price = current price × (target free float / current free float)

If ETFs and institutional reserves are combined as a whole, they currently hold 7.85% of the total supply. Assuming this proportion increases to 10% in the future, and the stake lock-up ratio remains relatively unchanged, the free float will shrink to approximately 72.52 million tokens, with the corresponding price mechanically rising to approximately $4,647. If it increases to 15%, the price will rise to approximately $5,070; and if it increases to 20%, it will approach $6,000.

This doesn't even take into account the amplifying effect on the demand side, so the actual increase could be even higher. Furthermore, ETFs and institutional investors typically take time to settle their incremental funds, meaning ETH's price will likely rise steadily over the long term, rather than experiencing a short-term surge.

03. Metcalfe's Law

Many discussions of ETH valuation focus on price fluctuations and buzzwords, but overlook the long-term support that on-chain activity provides for network value. Metcalfe's Law states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its number of active users. Applied to Ethereum, this translates to Network Value ≈ k × (Daily Active Addresses)².

The simple understanding is "the more users, the more valuable the network is", and the quadratic growth in the number of users will bring exponential growth in market value.

According to BitInfoCharts data, on August 13, 2025, the Ethereum mainnet had approximately 971,486 daily active addresses (DAA) over the past 24 hours. The current price of ETH is approximately $4,500, with a total circulating supply of approximately 120.7 million and a market capitalization of approximately $543.1 billion. Substituting this into the formula yields the current coefficient k ≈ 0.576 (USD/address²).

With this k, we can calculate the price under different activity scenarios:

If DAA increases to 1 million, the price will be approximately $4,768 (+6%)

If DAA increases to 1.1 million, the price will be approximately $5,769 (+28.2%)

If the optimistic price reaches 1.3 million (close to 90% of the historical high), the price will be about $8,058 (+79.1%)

This calculation assumes that the staked and circulating supply remain relatively stable. Increased activity directly amplifies network value, thereby driving up the price of a single ETH. Unlike ETFs and institutional buying, the Metcalfe method reflects the endogenous growth of on-chain usage and economic activity. It doesn't rely on external capital inflows, but rather on the compounding accumulation of network effects.

Note that once activity resonates with the funding side—on-chain transactions increase, fees rise, and burn volume picks up, coupled with the chip contraction effect of ETFs and institutions, the price of ETH will be driven by both supply contraction and network expansion, and the speed of increase may far exceed the prediction of a single factor.

04. NVT Model

NVT is essentially like an "encrypted version of PE". Given a reasonable NVT multiple (refer to the historical range) and future daily transfer amount, the market value and price can be reversed.

NVT = Market value (USD) / On-chain transfer amount (USD) on the day. The calculation shows that NVT = 518B / 14B = 37

ETH's NVT has historically ranged from 60 to 110, currently languishing at a lower level. Assuming the NVT multiple remains within a reasonable range of 60/80/90/100/110 over the next 6–12 months, on-chain transaction volume (USD) is projected to range from 7B to 14B per day, taking into account volatility.

6-month scenario

Conservative: NVT 70, daily transactions $7B → market cap ≈ $490B → price ≈ $4,059

Benchmark: NVT 80, daily transactions $9B → market cap ≈ $720B → price ≈ $5,965

Optimistic: NVT 90, daily transactions $12B → Market cap ≈ $1080B → Price ≈ $8,947

12-month scenario

Conservative: NVT 75, daily transactions $8B → Market cap ≈ $600T → Price ≈ $4,971

Benchmark: NVT 90, $10B in daily transactions → Market cap ≈ $900T → Price ≈ $7,456

Optimistic: NVT 100, daily transactions $14B → Market cap ≈ $1400T → Price ≈ $11,598

In other words, ETH's network effect is supporting a valuation range of $5,000-12,000.

05. On-chain cash flow model

The on-chain "revenue" (transaction fees + MEV, etc.) generated by the Ethereum protocol is considered cash flow to measure network value. As the Ethereum application ecosystem expands, the growth of network "revenue" can increase ETH's valuation.

Based on this thinking, asset management company VanEck predicts that by 2025, with the introduction of ETFs and other favorable factors for Ethereum staking returns, the price of ETH is expected to approach $6,000. As early as its 2023 report, VanEck estimated the price of ETH. Assuming that on-chain fees and usage continue to rise, the model predicts that ETH may rise to approximately $11,800 in 2030. See the figure below:

06. K-line technical analysis

@CryptoPainter believes that although ETH is currently facing some historical selling pressure from the 2021 high supply area, in the 4-hour technical structure, the highs and lows are still slowly rising without obvious damage.

Observing from the ASR channel, the ETH price fluctuates upward above the orange average pressure band, which is a strong pattern, indicating that market demand is gradually absorbing the supply near the historical high.

The daily ASR channel shows signs of breaking through the average resistance band. The last similar breakthrough occurred in early 2024. If this breakthrough succeeds, the daily target may directly reach the daily overbought line (about $5,600).

Another possibility is to repeat the trend at the end of 2024, encountering extreme pressure at the upper edge of the orange channel.

Overall, the current situation remains positive, and there is a possibility that the price of ETH will hit $6,000 in the medium term.

07. Crypto Analyst Scenario Analysis

Some crypto analysts and media outlets have provided a series of scenario-based predictions for ETH prices:

1. Crypto analyst @VirtualBacon0x believes ETH has entered a new macro bull market. Under his baseline scenario, ETH is expected to reach $6,000-7,000 by the end of 2025, with a long-term target of approximately $10,000 by mid-2026. In an extremely optimistic scenario, with a full-scale market frenzy and BTC hitting $200,000 and ETH outperforming, Virtual Bacon estimates ETH could reach $16,000.

2. Wall Street analyst Tom Lee said bluntly in the Bankless podcast in July that in the short term, ETH should at least rebound to $4,000; and before the end of 2025, it is reasonable for ETH to rise to $7,000, or even $12,000 or $15,000.

3. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, gave ETH a target price of approximately $10,000 by the end of 2025, reflecting an optimistic bull market scenario. In his July 2025 article, he emphasized that the shift in US policy toward credit expansion, which will bring in significant liquidity, coupled with renewed interest in Ethereum from Western institutions, will be key macroeconomic catalysts driving ETH's upward trajectory.

4. Crypto media outlet Bankless proposed a bullish scenario in its 2025 outlook, predicting that ETH could reach $15,000. Their annual forecast suggests that new drivers, such as the AI boom, could trigger a new wave of crypto market frenzy, and that under this optimistic scenario, ETH prices could reach tens of thousands of yuan. These assumptions include ample market liquidity, emerging market narratives (such as AI + Crypto), and the continued consolidation of Ethereum's dominance in the DeFi space.

08. Summary

Based on the six valuation methods, ETH is likely to reach the range of US$6,000-8,000 in 2025. If market sentiment is high and on-chain activities continue to grow, breaking through US$10,000 is not impossible. In extremely optimistic cases, it may reach the range of US$12,000-15,000.

This isn't just speculation; it's a reflection of on-chain data, capital flow, and macro liquidity. Regardless of whether or not ETH ultimately reaches $10,000, as the infrastructure of the crypto ecosystem, it has established a firm foothold in multiple valuation systems.

What do you think about the potential of ETH in this cycle? Welcome to comment and exchange

Risk Warning: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. ETH prices are subject to significant volatility, influenced by multiple factors including market sentiment, on-chain activity, and policy changes. Please make decisions based on your risk tolerance and assume all investment risks.