The interest rate cut game is unresolved, and whales continue to sell. Where is the market at?

The cryptocurrency market is currently in a state of high uncertainty, driven by whale movements, macroeconomic factors, and a major token launch. Key developments include:

Whale Activity: A major whale has sold over 34,000 BTC (cashing out ~$3.7B) to purchase over 813,000 ETH. This rotation is a primary reason for Bitcoin's recent weakness and Ethereum's relative strength. However, nearly $400 million in ETH is waiting to be unstaked, posing a potential selling pressure.
Macroeconomic Focus: All eyes are on the Federal Reserve. Market odds for a September rate cut are at 87.4%, but the decision hinges on key data releases this week (ADP, ISM PMI, and Non-Farm Payrolls). Analysts caution that even a cut may not signal the start of a sustained easing cycle, and stagflation risks could lead to increased volatility. Political pressure from Trump to influence the Fed's dovishness adds another layer of uncertainty.
WLFI Token Launch: The Trump-affiliated World Liberty Financial (WLFI) token is launching amidst controversy. It raised $2.26B in funding rounds, with early investors seeing 20x gains. Confusion over its tokenomics and circulating supply (estimated between 8% and a much higher figure) creates significant risk of a major "dump" upon launch, despite potential presidential endorsement hype.
Market Sentiment: Analysts and traders are largely cautious. Many, like Fundstrat's Tom Lee, predict a potential 5-10% market pullback. Research from firms like Matrixport points to a continuing correction. Analysis of market cycles suggests a slowing momentum, with a new upward trend not expected until fall 2025. Short-term Bitcoin support is seen around $100,000 if it fails to hold above $112,000.
Long-term Belief Persists: Despite short-term caution, long-term narratives for Bitcoin and gold as hedges against global debt crises and loss of confidence in traditional bonds remain strong, as highlighted by figures like Robert Kiyosaki.

The overarching theme is a market in a "gray area," where waiting and exercising caution are the prevailing strategies until greater clarity emerges from macro data and whale actions.

Author: Dingdang, Odaily Planet Daily

I'm anxious, very anxious. I feel like I haven't made any money yet, yet the market is already clamoring for a bearish turn. All sorts of news are making my head spin. Bitcoin's weekly MACD is facing a death crossover, while Ethereum is struggling to hold up. Trend Research, which recently achieved impressive results by calling for a long position on ETH at the bottom and was once a firm bull on the Ethereum ecosystem, quietly liquidated its PENDLE and ENS positions at a loss this morning.

At a time like this, should I hold on or retreat? I can only keep checking the market, hoping someone can "recharge my faith" and find a way out of this anxiety.

The Ethereum and Bitcoin Game Stirred by Giant Whales

For the past two weeks, the crypto market has been dominated by none other than an ancient whale. His massive sell-off of BTC for ETH is arguably the primary culprit behind Bitcoin's weakening performance. This individual has sold a total of 34,110 BTC, cashing out approximately $3.7 billion, and purchased 813,298.84 ETH, valued at approximately $3.66 billion. Currently, he holds 49,816 BTC in his two remaining wallets, valued at approximately $6 billion. The question is: Will he continue to sell? And how much? It hangs like a sword, unresolved, over Bitcoin's head. The sellers are simply too powerful.

For Ethereum, the whales' rotation is clearly a positive development. This may be one of the key reasons for ETH's recent strength relative to BTC. However, Ethereum faces a tough two weeks ahead. Currently, 932,246 ETH is waiting to be unstaked, representing approximately $400 million in potential selling pressure that could impact the market.

Now it depends on the actions of the big whales. If they can take over Ethereum, they will inevitably hit Bitcoin hard. A game of stock is still going on.

Super Week: Data and interest rate cuts collide

Global markets will be focused on the Federal Reserve in the coming weeks. According to today's CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September is 87.4%, with investors betting on the Fed's imminent start of another round of easing.

This week is truly a "super week," with the release of the ADP small non-farm payroll data, the ISM services PMI, and especially the core-of-core non-farm payroll report. All of these data will influence the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on September 16-17. If the series of data, especially the non-farm payroll data, is weak, the market may bet on a faster and earlier Fed rate cut. A strong overall performance will weaken market expectations for a rate cut. Regardless of the outcome, this week is destined for significant market volatility. For investors, caution is the only answer.

While Powell's speech on the evening of August 22nd sent dovish signals, it did not provide strong guidance on the duration or magnitude of rate cuts. A recent CICC research report suggests that the market should not overinterpret Fed Chairman Powell's "dovish" remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting. Against the backdrop of higher tariffs and tightening immigration policies in the US, employment and inflation risks coexist. If inflation risks outweigh employment, the Fed may halt rate cuts. Even a 25 basis point rate cut in September would not signal the start of a sustained easing cycle. CICC warns that if stagflationary pressures intensify, the Fed will face a dilemma and market volatility could increase.

Trump, for his part, is trying to push the Federal Reserve Board of Governors to form a tighter team to shift policy toward a dovish stance. The Fed's seven-member board is currently composed of seven members. Besides Cook, who is currently in legal battle with Trump, two of them—Jefferson and Barr—are appointed by the Biden administration. Like Cook, they align with Powell. Bowman, Waller, and Milan are generally considered Trump supporters. If the court rules that Trump can fire Cook, Trump will quickly nominate his successor, securing a four-to-three majority on the Board of Governors. While such a ruling is unlikely before the September meeting, Cook's absence could leave the Board tied between the three Trump appointees, the two Biden appointees, and Powell. The September meeting could be a turning point in market direction.

Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said investors were right to be cautious in September. The Federal Reserve is resuming a moderate rate-cutting cycle after a long pause, making it difficult for traders to determine their positions. The long-term bullish analyst expects the S&P 500 to fall 5% to 10% this fall before rebounding to between 6,800 and 7,000 points.

WLFI sucks blood from the market?

The countdown to another "super bomb" is also underway. World Liberty Financial (WLFI), the Trump family's crypto project, will launch tonight at 8 PM. Many people inevitably associate this with the Trump token: enriching a small group of people before crashing the broader market. Consequently, the question on many people's minds is: Will the Trump story repeat itself with WLFI?

According to WLFI investor acquisition costs compiled by on-chain analyst @ai_9684 xtpa, WLFI has completed eight rounds of public fundraising, raising a total of $2.26 billion. Based on the current pre-market price of $0.32, the lowest cost of the first round of public fundraising was only $0.015, resulting in a profit margin exceeding 20 times. This suggests a high probability of post-launch profit growth for WLFI.

The two public offering rounds have confirmed that 20% will be unlocked through the TGE, with the remaining 80% pending a community vote. Team/advisor/partner tokens are locked, but there's still no clarity on whether the tokens from the strategic round will be unlocked. The entire network is currently focused on the TGE's circulating supply. Coinmarketcap.com data shows a circulating supply of 27.2 billion tokens, valued at approximately $8.7 billion. CMC's CEO stated that this circulation figure was repeatedly confirmed with the project, meaning that strategic round tokens will also be circulated through the TGE. If this is true, a "dump" of tokens upon launch may be inevitable.

However, crypto influencer @0xDylan_ (suspected to be a member of the WLFI Wallet team) posted a statement announcing an update to the WLFI token economics model. 8% of the token has been allocated to Alt 5 Public Company and locked up, while 10% has been reserved for future incentive programs, points, and other purposes (already locked up, details to be announced). The team and institutional investors have also locked up their shares. Furthermore, 3% will be allocated for centralized exchange liquidity (CEX liquidity) and decentralized exchange liquidity (DEX LP), while 5% will be allocated to investors. This means that the circulating supply is 8% (5% unlocked) and 3% allocated for liquidity, totaling 8%, or 8 billion tokens in circulation, valued at $2.56 billion.

Odaily's Planet Daily article, "WLFI Cut in Half Before Market Opening, Will It Rise or Fall When It Launches on September 1st?", predicted what would happen after WLFI's launch. Another possibility is that WLFI also has Trump's endorsement, and on the day of WLFI's official launch, there's a high probability that Trump will congratulate WLFI on social media or make various "calls" for it. This ambiguous relationship with the president will also create more room for hype for WLFI.

Considering the mere 8% of the circulating supply, it's possible that WLFI's price will continue to rise upon its launch. However, the high FDV and potential strategic selling pressure are a ticking time bomb, and a sharp pullback could still occur once the unlocking ratio increases or speculation cools.

Other market voices: Bitcoin is still a belief, but caution is needed in the short term

Risk-averse logic: Gold and Bitcoin go hand in hand

Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," once again mentioned Bitcoin in an article, stating that Europe is facing a severe debt crisis, with France nearing a "Bastille Day-style revolt," and Germany's energy policies leading to high manufacturing costs and even the risk of civil unrest. He noted that since 2020, US Treasury bonds have fallen 13%, European bonds have fallen 24%, and UK bonds have fallen 32%, and global markets have lost confidence in the debt repayment capacity of major economies. Kiyosaki stated that Japan and China are selling US Treasuries and turning to gold and silver, and he reiterated his call for investors to protect themselves by holding gold, silver, and Bitcoin.

André Dragosch, Bitwise's Head of European Research, also stated that gold is often the best hedge during stock market declines, while Bitcoin exhibits greater resilience during periods of pressure on US Treasuries. Historical data also shows that gold tends to rise during bear markets, while Bitcoin offers greater support during US Treasury sell-offs. By 2025, gold prices had risen by over 30%, while Bitcoin had risen by approximately 16.46%, reflecting investors' divergent preferences for both currencies amid rising yields, stock market volatility, and President Trump's support for cryptocurrencies.

Traders are cautious and waiting: an upward trend will begin in the fall of 2025

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel that he is not currently participating in market transactions, but he needs to explain (to his followers) that if you want to see substantial fluctuations in altcoins, you must rely on Bitcoin (an upward breakthrough) to drive the market, but Bitcoin's current performance has not met the expectations of bulls.

Previously, Eugene had closed most of his ETH positions on August 14 to significantly reduce his risk exposure, and on August 24 he stated that the bull market cycle would come to an end and his personal ETH transactions had been completely terminated.

In its latest "Matrix on Target" report, Matrixport also stated that it has shifted to a more conservative stance, noting that this correction may continue. Seasonal weakness has been evident since the end of July, and periodic pressure is accumulating.

With US employment data due to be released this week, Bitcoin is at a critical technical juncture. Further price declines might surprise most traders, but this risk cannot be ignored. Historically, interest rate cuts are often viewed as bullish for the crypto market, but they often come with setbacks.

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan stated that the cryptocurrency market cycle is slowing, with an upward trend expected in the fall of 2025. Looking at the percentage of Bitcoin held for more than a year (based on realized market capitalization), past cycles (Phase 1 and Phase 2) show significant market surges and peaks. However, in the current phase (Phase 3), the upward trend is gradually flattening, and the cycle is becoming longer.

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, wrote on the X platform that from a short-term valuation perspective, if Bitcoin fails to quickly reclaim $112,000, downside support could be around $100,000. The current BTC price is $107,420.

Conclusion

Whether it is the portfolio adjustments of whales, the macro interest rate cut game, or the cautious attitude of professional traders, almost all voices are conveying one common point: the current market is in a gray area, and waiting and caution are the only strategies.

Anxiety may not disappear, it will continue to accompany us in every market fluctuation. But perhaps, this is the normal state of the market - it never provides certainty, only options.

What we can do is not to eagerly look for someone to "recharge our faith", but to find our own position in uncertainty and exercise patience in repeated temptations.