Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
1. Market Observation
The latest annual revision to the US government's non-farm payroll data shows a sharp downward revision of 911,000 jobs for the year ending in March, far exceeding market expectations of 682,000 . This is the largest downward revision since 2000, equivalent to an average loss of nearly 76,000 jobs per month, or 0.6% of the total labor force. This revision reflects a weakening labor market, exacerbating concerns about the health of the US economy and adding pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
The revised data, covering the period before Trump's administration, suggests that the US employment situation had already deteriorated before the implementation of trade tariffs. The market currently generally expects the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut at its September 17th meeting, with a few betting on a 50 basis point cut , and possible further cuts before the end of the year. Citi economist Andrew Hollenhorst believes that the revised data supports more aggressive rate cuts from the Fed, but Powell may choose a more gradual approach. Goldman Sachs disputed the extent of the revision but acknowledged a significant slowdown in the labor market. With the weak employment data, market expectations for Fed policy have shifted significantly, with traders anticipating consecutive rate cuts at the remaining three meetings this year, potentially supporting a rebound in stocks and risky assets.
As for Bitcoin, the market is closely watching the upcoming US CPI data on September 11th . Analyst Ted noted that the previous three CPI releases each resulted in a 9% to 11% drop in Bitcoin prices, casting a shadow on short-term market sentiment. Currently, Bitcoin is facing significant selling pressure around $113,000. Analyst Murphy believes this is due to short-term holders rushing to sell near their initial cost (approximately $112,000), and that the market needs a major macro event to break the impasse . Glassnode analysis shows that the market is in a state of low volatility and nearing a breakout point, but institutional demand (measured by net ETF inflows) is weak, down 50% from its July peak. $114,000 is considered a key turning point; a sustained decline below this level would maintain a bearish bias. However, there are also positive technical indicators. Analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly observes the formation of a bullish "head and shoulders bottom" pattern on the four-hour chart. A break above the $113,650 neckline could target a price target of $120,000. From a longer-term perspective, CryptoQuant analysts believe that the market is in a mature bull market, and the addition of institutional demand makes the selling behavior of long-term holders more sustainable. The peak of the cycle is expected to occur as early as October.
Ethereum's performance appears sluggish due to macro uncertainty and weak ETF demand. Analyst Ted noted that despite strong liquidity concentration in the $3,600 to $4,000 range, he believes prices may first move downwards to lower liquidity levels before a reversal. Meanwhile, another analyst, CJ, observed that Ethereum is currently consolidating strongly in the mid-$4,202 to $4,496 range, closely tracking the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, indicating market uncertainty. In the short term, Ethereum is likely to remain volatile, and its ultimate breakout direction still requires clearer technical signals and market dynamics to guide it .
In the altcoin market, analyst Altcoin Sherpa expressed strong optimism about Solana , believing that the upcoming DAT launch could drive significant buying and predicting its price could reach $250 in the coming weeks or months. Meanwhile, the Linea project will hold its Token Generation Event (TGE) today, and its pre-market price has remained around $0.027 for nearly a week. Furthermore, an interesting market phenomenon has emerged: BakeryToken ( BAKE ), Hifi Finance ( HIFI ), and Self Chain ( SLF ), three tokens scheduled for delisting on Binance on September 17th, have collectively surged today. BAKE saw a 150% increase, while HIFI and SLF saw increases of 46% and 57%, respectively.
2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT, September 10)
(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)
Bitcoin : $111,556 (+19.34% YTD), daily spot trading volume $44.672 billion
Ethereum : $4,316.55 (+28.44% YTD), with a daily spot trading volume of $27.951 billion
Fear of corruption index : 48 (neutral)
Average gas : BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.165 Gwei
Market share : BTC 57.16%, ETH 13.5%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings : WLD, XRP, KAITO, ETH, IP
24-hour BTC long-short ratio : 49.68%/50.32%
Sector gains and losses : L2 rose 3.43%, RWA rose 2.78%
24-hour liquidation data : A total of 144,548 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$292 million, including BTC liquidation of US$45.59 million, ETH liquidation of US$40.35 million, and MYX liquidation of US$32.32 million.
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel : upper channel line ($112,441.34), lower channel line ($110,214.78)
ETH medium- and long-term trend channel : upper channel line ($4389.96), lower channel line ($4303.03)
*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF flows (as of September 9)
Bitcoin ETF: +$23.0549 million
Ethereum ETF: +$44.1563 million, turning into net inflow after 6 consecutive days of outflow
4. Today's Outlook
Binance Alpha to List Zypher Network (POP) and Linea (LINEA) on September 10th
Bloomberg Analyst: REX-Osprey Dogecoin ETF Set to List on Thursday
Binance Alpha will list PINGPONG (PINGPONG) on September 11th
Binance: HOLO tokens will begin circulating at 18:00 on September 11th
U.S. August unadjusted CPI annual rate: previous value 2.70%, forecast value 2.90% (September 11, 20:30)
BounceBit (BB) will unlock approximately 42.89 million tokens at 8:00 AM on September 10, representing 6.31% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $6.4 million.
Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens at 6:00 PM on September 11th, representing 2.20% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $48 million.
io.net (IO) will unlock approximately 13.29 million tokens at 8:00 PM on September 11th, representing 6.24% of the current circulating supply and valued at approximately $7 million.
The biggest gains among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today: MYX Finance rose 28.2%, Story rose 19.6%, Mantle rose 15.8%, Ondo rose 10.2%, and Pyth Network rose 9.1%.
5. Hot News
LongLing Capital-linked wallets deposited over $14 million in crypto assets into Binance
EasyJet parent company easyGroup launches Bitcoin app for US retail investors
U.S. employment data revised sharply downward, with 911,000 fewer jobs added in the year to March
Ethereum treasury firm SharpLink has begun a $1.5 billion share repurchase program
MegaETH and Ethena jointly launch native stablecoin USDm to subsidize sequencer fees