Vitalik: Prediction markets are the “third information system” after media and social networks

Vitalik Buterin, speaking at the ETHShanghai 2025 Summit, described prediction markets as a "third media" or "third information system" that complements traditional media and social networks. He emphasized their role extends beyond investment tools to becoming a vital part of the social cognitive system. Prediction markets can filter out biases from traditional and social media, making market prices a more authentic signal of reality. Citing the example of Polymarket during the US election, he noted its use by even cryptocurrency-skeptical intellectuals as a mark of its success. Looking forward, Vitalik envisions prediction markets, potentially aided by AI, expanding from macro events into micro-level interactions, such as predicting an article's popularity.

Summary

At today's #ETHShanghai2025 Summit, Vitalik had a roundtable dialogue with Xiaofeng Buterin, Chairman of Wanxiang Blockchain.

Vitalik Buterin said that the potential of the prediction market goes far beyond investment tools and it may become the "third media" in the social cognitive system.

He cited Polymarket during the US election as an example, noting that many intellectuals who were previously critical of cryptocurrencies also used prediction markets to understand the true impact of events. "When I saw this kind of cross-disciplinary use, I realized it was a true success."

Vitalik believes that prediction markets can filter out biases in traditional media and social media, making prices the most authentic signals.

In the future, with the intervention of AI, the prediction market will expand from macro events to micro interactions, such as predicting the popularity of an article.

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Author: PA影音

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