Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

At the start of February, global assets experienced a sharp decline. The news of Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman became the trigger, with markets fearing his hawkish stance would end balance sheet expansion, leading to the "Warsh Shock" sweeping the globe. Simultaneously, geopolitical risks escalated, with Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei warning of the risk of "regional war," and the US deploying a carrier strike group. While Trump expressed a willingness to reach an agreement, he threatened to see if Khamenei's warning materialized if no agreement was reached.

As a result, the US dollar strengthened, causing a sharp decline in precious metals and commodities. Spot gold fell below $4,450, a 9% drop on the day, retreating more than $1,100 from its historical high of $5,596. Spot silver once plummeted by more than 14% and fell below the $73 mark, dropping to third place among global assets. Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) plunged by more than 5%, and nickel prices fell by 6% on the day. The domestic lithium carbonate futures contract even hit its daily limit down, closing at 132,440 yuan/ton, while WTI crude oil fell to around $62. Copper prices on the LME plunged by more than 5%. Nickel prices fell by 6.00% on the day, currently trading at $16,496.20/ton.

In response to market volatility, the Thai Futures Exchange has temporarily limited the daily price fluctuation of online silver futures to within ±30% of the latest settlement price and announced the suspension of online gold futures trading. Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown analyzed that the decline in the metals market is similar to the previous rise, exhibiting characteristics of "too sharp and too rapid a drop." He believes the market may experience a "dead cat bounce," but in the long term, the bullish logic for precious metals remains solid due to strong demand from central banks and retail, and precious metals remain a safe-haven option superior to the US dollar or US Treasuries amid geopolitical risks. The key for the market going forward is whether the bubble has been completely deflated and speculative positions cleared, allowing fundamentals to once again dominate price movements.

In the stock market, the South Korean KOSPI index plummeted 5.26%, its biggest single-day drop in 14 months, impacted by concerns about interest rate prospects and the sustainability of AI capital expenditures. Samsung and SK Hynix both fell by more than 4%. Furthermore, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang clarified that previous rumors of a $100 billion investment in OpenAI "were never a promise," further dampening market confidence in the AI sector.

Bitcoin market sentiment is extremely low, with prices briefly falling below $75,000 to a low of $74,612, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline and a 10-month low. It is only about $100 away from the nearest support level of $74,501. The price has also fallen below the average purchase price of approximately $76,000 for Michael Saylor's Strategy, meaning the 712,647 Bitcoins held by Strategy currently face over $900 million in unrealized losses. Several analysts, including Ardi, Greeny, and ERROR, have pointed out that the $70,000 to $75,000 area is a key support level; if this level is breached, the next target could be $69,000 or even $54,000. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, warned that if Bitcoin falls further below $70,000, it will severely damage long-term market confidence. Astronomer believes that $74,300 will be breached, as the "last line of defense" is often a trap, and maintains an overall short or neutral bias. Crypto analyst Doctor Profit believes that Bitcoin's break below the key 100-week moving average (MA100) confirms the start of a bear market and predicts a new cycle bottom between $54,000 and $44,000. Analyst Ali Charts also suggests that Bitcoin could fall to $42,256 if it breaks below this key level. Crypto Chase believes Bitcoin will see a strong rebound in the $60,000 to $65,000 range. Analyst Rekt Capital also points out that history is repeating itself, with a bearish crossover of the 21-week and 50-week EMAs indicating further downside.

However, some analysts see a possible short-term rebound. Trader Killa predicts the CME futures gap around $84,000 will be filled in the coming weeks, while AlphaBTC expects a rebound to the $87,000-$88,000 area in February, followed by another deep dip later this month. Macro analyst Raoul Pal links Bitcoin's decline to the performance of SaaS stocks, arguing that it is driven by macro liquidity rather than a problem within the crypto market itself.

Ethereum also faced severe challenges, with its price falling along with the broader market, briefly dipping below $2,200. Ali Charts stated that $2,100-$2,250 was a key support zone over the past two years, but he plans to "sell and buy" around $1,800. CJ Analysis believes the $2,100 support is not secure, predicting a market drop to $1,800-$2,000 to form a bottom, and advises caution until $2,100 is recovered. Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that the daily RSI for Ethereum and most tokens is below 30, a signal of a market bottom, and compared with historical data, indicates that although ETH is currently down 31%, it may subsequently see a rise of over 300% against Bitcoin. Altcoins generally followed the market's plunge, with mainstream projects such as SOL, BNB, and XRP falling between 4% and 6%.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, February 2nd)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

Bitcoin: $76,524 (down 12.69% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $76.87 billion.
Ethereum: $2,228 (down 25.1% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $53.71 billion.
Fear of Greed Index: 14 (Extreme Panic)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei
Market share: BTC 59.2%, ETH 11.8%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: BTC, XRP, ETH, SENT, AXS
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 48.80% / 51.20%
Sector Performance: The crypto market sector saw a significant decline, with only the SocialFi sector remaining relatively resilient.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 160,112 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $648 million. This included $216 million in BTC liquidations, $221 million in ETH liquidations, and $29.5 million in SOL liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of January 30)

Bitcoin ETF: Net outflow of $1.49 billion this week, the second highest on record.
Ethereum ETF: Net outflow of $327 million this week
XRP ETF: Net outflow of $52.26 million this week
SOL ETF: Net outflow of $2.45 million this week

4. Today's Outlook

Crypto wallet Rainbow has released details of its RNBW token auction, with a starting price of $0.10.
Aster will launch its sixth phase of airdrops on February 2nd, distributing 0.8% of the total supply.
Binance: ZAMA tokens will be available for trading on February 2nd at 20:00.
Trump Media & Technology Group announced that registration for its digital token program will begin on February 2nd.
CoinList will launch the public sale of its new AC project, Flying Tulip (FT), at midnight on February 3rd.
Geopolitical tensions in Iran continue to escalate (weekly events)
Shanghai Futures Exchange: The daily price limit for silver futures has been adjusted to 17%, and the margin requirement for hedging positions has been adjusted to 18% (February 3).
Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks (February 3, 22:40)

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Stable up 12.5%, MYX Finance up 12.1%, Jupiter up 6%, MemeCore up 5.4%, and Canton Network up 4.3%.

1. Market Observation

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, February 2nd)

3. ETF Flows (as of January 30)

4. Today's Outlook

5. Hot News

Strive CEO: Strategy has outperformed Bitcoin and gold over the past five years.

Popular Articles