Trading Moments: Bitcoin falls below $100,000, exacerbating the divergence between bulls and bears; Ethereum gives back its year-to-date gains.

Bitcoin has fallen below the critical $100,000 level, intensifying the division between bullish and bearish analysts. The market downturn is driven by a U.S. government shutdown-induced liquidity crisis and a sharp correction in AI stocks, heightening risk aversion.

Market Pressures: The prolonged U.S. government shutdown has drained over $700 billion in liquidity, while AI stock plunges and Michael Burry's short positions on companies like Nvidia amplify fears.
Bitcoin Analysis: Bears warn of potential drops to $82,000 if key supports fail, while bulls view the dip as a buying opportunity, citing historical November rebounds. Ethereum has erased its year-to-date gains, testing the $3,000 support level.
Altcoin Performance: SOL broke below a key trend line despite ETF inflows. Some tokens like Giggle Academy and MMT defied the market decline with significant gains.
Market Data: The Fear and Greed Index sits at 20 (Extreme Fear), with over $1.7 billion in liquidations. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows, while the SOL ETF recorded inflows.
Key Events: Attention is on potential government shutdown resolution, Fed rate cut probabilities, and major token unlocks from Ethena and Heroes of Mavia.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Markets are facing multiple pressures. The US government shutdown has entered a record 36 days , causing the Treasury's account balance at the Federal Reserve to surge to over $1 trillion, withdrawing more than $700 billion in liquidity from the market. Its tightening effect is comparable to several interest rate hikes, with the key funding rate, SOFR, soaring and raising concerns about a liquidity crisis. However, there are signs of progress in bipartisan negotiations, with some lawmakers optimistically predicting the stalemate may end this Thursday . Meanwhile, global stock markets, driven by the AI boom, experienced a sharp correction as investors' concerns about the high valuations of tech stocks intensified. US stocks experienced a "Black Tuesday," followed by a plunge in Asian markets, with the South Korean KOSPI index triggering a circuit breaker . Michael Burry, the inspiration for the film "The Big Short," revealed he was heavily shorting AI companies such as Nvidia and Palantir , further exacerbating risk aversion in the market. Macro analyst Raoul Pal believes the current liquidity tightening is only a temporary "pain window," and a "liquidity flood" is imminent as the government shutdown ends, the Federal Reserve stops quantitative tightening and shifts to interest rate cuts, and crypto regulatory legislation progresses. In addition, the market is also watching the U.S. Supreme Court's review of the legitimacy of Trump's tariff powers, the outcome of which could become a new source of market turmoil.

Amid market turmoil, Bitcoin's price fell below the $100,000 mark for the first time since June, with analysts holding differing opinions on its future direction. Bears point out that the price has broken below key technical support levels such as the 21-week EMA and the 50-week moving average. Rekt Capital believes that a weekly close above $108,000 is needed to maintain the $108,000-$125,000 range; otherwise, further declines are possible. Traders Killa and CJ are watching the next major support levels at $92,000-$94,000 and $82,000-$88,000 respectively. Killa stated that if BTC can hold the $98,000-$100,000 area, it could push the price to around $105,000-$106,000, but if the price remains below the quarterly moving average of $108,000, it could potentially test $92,000-$94,000. CJ stated that Bitcoin has touched its first major downside watch area of $98,000-$101,000. He stated that he would observe price movements within this range before deciding on his next move. If this support level is breached, the next key downside target is $82,000-$88,000. He believes the current range may trigger some market reaction, but the specific outcome remains to be seen. On-chain data shows that although long-term holders have sold approximately 400,000 BTC in the past month, analyst Murphy points out that the current price is close to its "fair value" of $98,000, and the percentage of profitable addresses has entered the extreme range of a bull market correction. This could be the end of the correction or the beginning of a bear market.

Bullish investors believe the current price action presents a good opportunity to buy. Analyst Astronomer stated that he has doubled down on his long positions near $99,000, believing it to be a bottoming signal indicating that market panic has peaked. Ash Crypto also maintains a bullish outlook, arguing that the current decline is a shakeout before the bull market top and pointing to the continued presence of positive macroeconomic factors such as the Fed's interest rate cuts and the resumption of quantitative easing. Furthermore, Delphi Digital analyst that1618guy points out that November has historically been a turning point for Bitcoin's market structure, with the timing of its monthly lows reflecting market conditions. Data shows that during bull market cycles (such as 2020, 2023, and 2024), Bitcoin's November lows typically occurred at the beginning of the month, accompanied by a slight pullback (approximately -1.7% to -3.7%), followed by an average 32.9% increase over the next 30 days. However, during bear markets or transitional phases (such as 2021 and 2022), lows often occurred at the end of the month, with deeper pullbacks, averaging -8.2%. If the current market continues its bull market trend, Bitcoin is expected to stabilize and rebound in early November; otherwise, it may enter a deeper correction phase.

Ethereum 's price is also under pressure, nearing $3,000. It had surged 48.5% from $3,337 at the beginning of the year to $4,956, but has now turned negative. Analyst Man of Bitcoin believes that if the price continues to fall below previous lows, it could indicate a deeper correction, while holding above $3,364 is key to maintaining short-term upward momentum. Despite Ethereum's weak dollar-denominated performance, analyst Krugman is extremely optimistic about its long-term prospects. He believes the ETH/BTC exchange rate chart is one of the most bullish charts among all assets and predicts that Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin in the next rally. He stated that he is holding a large amount of cash, waiting for a deep market correction, at which point he will primarily buy and hold Ethereum. Trader Killa indicated that he has placed buy orders in the $2,800-$2,900 range.

Despite the strong performance of the Solana spot ETF after its listing, attracting over $400 million in inflows, the price of SOL has fallen below its 211-day upward trend line. Analysts point out that if the $155 support level cannot be held, the price may further slide into the $120-$100 range. Meanwhile, some new projects and Meme tokens have bucked the trend and risen amidst the general market decline. The community-initiated Giggle Academy ( Giggle ) token saw its price surge by over 100% after Binance founder He Yi announced that Binance would donate its transaction fees and burn some tokens to put it into deflationary mode. Furthermore, MMT, recently listed on Binance, rose from its opening price of $0.10 to $4.47 before falling back to $1.25. New tokens such as KITE, F, TUTTLE, YB, and ENSO have also recorded some gains in the current market downturn. Market observers such as Blue Fox Notes believe that the traditional boundaries between bull and bear cycles are becoming blurred, and the macro-level flow of capital is more important than cyclical divisions. They remain optimistic about the long-term trend of the crypto space and AI reshaping the world.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, November 5)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

Bitcoin: $101,965 (year-to-date +8.73%), daily spot trading volume $121.11 billion.
Ethereum: $3,329 (-0.56% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $73.5 billion.
Fear of Greed Index: 20 (Panic)
Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.1 Gwei
Market share: BTC 60%, ETH 11.9%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: MMT, BTC, XRP, ETH, SOL
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 48.05%/51.95%
Sector Performance: The AI sector fell 4.67%, and the Ethereum ecosystem sector fell 3.89%.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 440,807 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $1.785 billion. This included $591 million in BTC liquidations, $520 million in ETH liquidations, and $129 million in MMT liquidations.

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower limits, it indicates a medium- to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping pattern.

3. ETF Flows (as of November 4)

Bitcoin ETF: -$578 million, marking the fifth consecutive day of net outflows.
Ethereum ETF: -$219 million, marking the fifth consecutive day of net outflows.
SOL ETF: +$14.83 million, marking the sixth consecutive day of net inflows.

4. Today's Outlook

Binance Alpha and contracts will be available on Intuition (TRUST).
Binance Alpha and Binance Futures will launch on November 6th on Folks Finance (FOLKS) and UnifAI (UAI).
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 172 million tokens at 3 PM on November 5th, representing 2.52% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $67.1 million.
Heroes of Mavia (MAVIA) will unlock approximately 11.89 million tokens on November 6th at 8:00 AM, representing 16.92% of the current circulating supply, worth approximately $1.2 million.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Aster up 19.1%, World Liberty Financial up 6.9%, Bitget Token up 6.9%, HEX up 6.8%, and Mantle up 6%.