Author: jk, Odaily Planet Daily

"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

"The Chancellor of the Exchequer is on the verge of a second bailout for banks." — Satoshi Nakamoto, Genesis Block

Introduction: Two Eras, One Problem

On October 31, 2008, as the global financial system teetered on the brink of collapse from the aftershocks of the subprime mortgage crisis, a cryptographer named Satoshi Nakamoto sent a white paper to a niche cryptography mailing list. The title was very concise: "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System".

Seventeen years later, on November 1, 2025, when we look at this document again, the time on the calendar will be completely different, but the world will look surprisingly similar.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers and the $2.7 trillion bank bailout have been superseded by $38 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds and $1.2 trillion in annual interest payments. Satoshi Nakamoto's prophecy inscribed in the genesis block, "The Chancellor of the Exchequer is on the verge of a second bank bailout," is not only not outdated, but has become even more glaring in 2025.

Seventeen years ago, Bitcoin was born out of a questioning of the centralized financial system; seventeen years later, this questioning has not only not been properly addressed, but has become even more urgent.

The question is: In 2025, when everything seems to be under control, and Wall Street has embraced Bitcoin, governments are starting to discuss strategic reserves, and prices are hitting all-time highs, why do we still need Bitcoin?

2008 vs. 2025: A Comparison of Two Crises

2008: The Collapse of the Old World

In the early morning of September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers, an investment bank with a history of 158 years, declared bankruptcy, becoming the largest bankruptcy case in U.S. history, with total liabilities reaching $613 billion.

Let's understand how that crisis happened through a simple story:

Imagine you're a restaurant server with an unstable income, earning only $30,000 a year. By traditional standards, you wouldn't be able to get a mortgage to buy a house . But in the early 2000s, a bank proactively approaches you and says, "No problem! We can lend you $500,000 to buy a house. You'll only need to pay very little interest for the first two years, and the house price will appreciate, allowing you to resell it for a profit!"

Bank employees at the grassroots level care about their KPIs, upper management care about whether they can resell loans to financial institutions, and you care about whether you can own a house. In this system, no one is wrong. As long as housing prices rise, this game can go on forever.

This is "subprime mortgage"—high-risk loans issued to people with poor credit and limited repayment ability. From 2000 to 2007, this type of loan surged in the United States, soaring from approximately $130 billion to $600 billion.

After issuing these loans, the banks did not hold them themselves (because the risk was too high), but instead pulled a "magic trick":

1. Package thousands of loans together
2. These are divided into different tranches of "bonds" (this is called MBS - mortgage-backed securities).
3. These bonds are then packaged into more complex products (CDOs - Collateralized Debt Obligations).
4. Get these products rated "AAA" (the safest rating, the same as US Treasury bonds) by a rating agency.

It's like mixing a bunch of rotten apples with good apples, repackaging them, and labeling them "premium fruit."

Lehman Brothers purchased large amounts of these "AAA-rated" securitized products using borrowed money (leverage). By 2007, Lehman Brothers' leverage ratio reached 31:1—meaning that it had only $1 of its own capital but managed $31 of assets.

Until 2006, US housing prices began to fall. Those who bought homes with subprime loans suddenly found themselves in trouble—housing prices fell, home values shrank; interest rates rose, increasing repayment pressure; they wanted to sell but found no buyers, and ultimately had no choice but to default.

As the chain reaction spread, the default rate on subprime loans rose rapidly: it was about 13% in 2006 and had exceeded 25% by 2008.

This also means that securities once rated "AAA" were actually fraught with risk, and so-called high-quality assets instantly became "toxic assets." The hundreds of billions of dollars in such assets held by Lehman Brothers thus lost their value overnight.

On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy, with $613 billion in debt and 25,000 employees losing their jobs.

Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the entire financial system descended into unprecedented panic. Banks ceased to trust each other (no one knew whether the other still held those "toxic assets"), and interbank lending virtually ceased. Credit markets froze, businesses were unable to obtain loans; the stock market continued its plunge, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by approximately 2,000 points in just one week, a drop of 14%; and the unemployment rate climbed from 5% to over 10% in October 2009.

Faced with this systemic collapse, the US government had no choice but to intervene. First, it launched the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), using $700 billion to buy up toxic assets held by banks; subsequently, the Federal Reserve launched quantitative easing (QE) policy, printing money on a massive scale to buy bonds, causing its balance sheet to swell from $800 billion in 2008 to $4.5 trillion in 2014.

However, who ultimately bears the cost of the bailout? Taxpayers' money was used to save the banks, the Federal Reserve's money printing led to currency devaluation, and the purchasing power of ordinary people's savings continued to decline. Ironically, in 2009, those Wall Street banks that received the bailout still distributed a staggering $18.4 billion in bonuses.

The paradox seen by Satoshi Nakamoto

This is the context in which Satoshi Nakamoto inscribed the following sentence in the genesis block: " The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks."

The paradox he saw was:

• When a bank makes a profit, the profit goes to private individuals; when it loses money, the loss goes to the public.
• Central banks can print money indefinitely, leaving savers with no way to protect their purchasing power.
• The entire system is built on "trust," but that trust has been systematically betrayed.

The white paper was born in this context, with Satoshi Nakamoto proposing a solution: no longer needing trust, completely eliminating currency over-issuance with a fixed supply, and replacing the credit endorsement of a former authoritative institution with decentralized consensus.

2025: A New World, Seemingly Familiar

Fast forward to 2025, and on the surface, everything seems different. Cryptocurrency market capitalization hits new highs, 60% of global stock markets reach new highs, Bitcoin is included in ETFs, and traditional financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity become the largest holders.

Even the A-shares market has rebounded.

But what's the underlying logic? Let's understand the US debt crisis in 2025 in the same simple way.

What are US Treasury bonds? Why did the crisis occur?

You can think of the U.S. government as a household with enormous income and expenditure. By 2025, this household's "annual income" (taxes) will be approximately $5.2 trillion, while its "annual expenditure" will reach a staggering $7 trillion. The difference—$1.8 trillion—is the fiscal deficit. To cover the deficit, the government can only borrow money, that is, issue national debt. National debt is like an "IOU" issued by the government, promising to repay the principal and pay interest in the future.

As of October 23, 2025, the total U.S. national debt exceeded $38 trillion. To put this into perspective, at a rate of $1 per second, it would take a full 1.2 million years to pay it off; averaged per American (including infants), this equates to approximately $114,000 in debt. This figure represents 123% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP, approximately $31 trillion).

Even more worrying is the rate of debt growth. In 2000, the U.S. national debt was only $5.7 trillion, accounting for 55% of GDP; by the eve of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, it had risen to $10 trillion, accounting for 65% of GDP; in 2020, affected by pandemic relief, it surged to $28 trillion, accounting for 98% of GDP; and by 2025, the debt has reached a staggering $38 trillion, accounting for 123% of GDP.

In other words, the United States’ debt has increased by a full $10 trillion in just the past five years.

Borrowing money always comes at a price. By 2025, the U.S. government will spend as much as $1.2 trillion annually on interest payments on its national debt, exceeding the country’s major spending items: defense budget of approximately $842 billion, healthcare spending of approximately $830 billion, and education budget of $101 billion.

In other words, the largest expenditure item for the US government today is not defense, not healthcare, and not education, but interest .

Even more worrying is that interest rates themselves are rising. In 2021, the average interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds was 1.61%; by 2025, that figure is expected to rise to 3.36%.

What does it mean if interest rates double?

Suppose you owe $1 million:

• At an interest rate of 1.61%, you would pay $16,100 in interest annually.
• At an interest rate of 3.36%, you would pay $33,600 in interest annually.
• Interest expenses doubled, while the principal remained unchanged.

For the US government, every 1 percentage point increase in interest rates means paying an additional $380 billion in interest annually. It's like a self-accelerating "debt snowball"—growing bigger and bigger, harder to stop.

The United States' fiscal situation has fallen into a vicious cycle from which it seems unable to escape : government spending consistently exceeds revenue , forcing it to continuously borrow to cover the shortfall. The more debt it incurs, the heavier the interest burden becomes; to pay the interest, government spending further increases, requiring even more borrowing—and so on, accelerating the cycle.

According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), this trend will become increasingly severe: by 2025, debt will be equivalent to 100% of GDP, reaching 106% in 2027 (exceeding the historical high during World War II), and is projected to rise to 118% in 2035, and may even climb to 200% of GDP by 2047. In other words, the US debt snowball is expanding at an exponential rate.

Some might ask: The United States is the world's largest economy and controls the issuance of the dollar, the global reserve currency, so why can't it keep borrowing indefinitely? On the surface, it seems to have no limit, but in reality, there are three fatal risks.

Risk 1: Debt ceiling crisis

The U.S. Congress has a statutory debt ceiling. In July 2025, Congress just raised the ceiling to $41.1 trillion, but at the current borrowing rate, it is projected to be reached again in 2026. If Congress fails to reach a consensus on raising the ceiling, the U.S. government will be unable to issue new debt, and may even face a "technical default." The debt ceiling impasse in 2023 already led Standard & Poor's to downgrade the U.S. credit rating (from AAA to AA+), triggering severe turmoil in financial markets and at one point bringing the government to the brink of shutdown.

Risk 2: Erosion of the US dollar's credibility

The US dollar's status as the global reserve currency is built on the world's trust in the US credit—the belief that the US can repay its debts and that the dollar can maintain its value. However, this trust is being eroded. BRICS+ countries are pushing for de-dollarization, the proportion of RMB settlement in oil trade is rising, and more and more central banks are reducing their holdings of US Treasury bonds and increasing their gold reserves. Data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that in 2000, the US dollar accounted for as much as 71% of global foreign exchange reserves, but by 2025 it has fallen to 58%. If the dollar further loses its reserve currency status, the US government will be unable to borrow at low interest rates, and a debt crisis will erupt more quickly.

Risk 3: The Demon of Inflation

When debt becomes so large that it cannot be repaid, governments have only three options: cut spending, raise taxes, or print money to pay off the debt. The first two are almost politically unfeasible—no politician is willing to cut welfare or raise taxes; therefore, the most realistic option is often the third: debt monetization , which involves the Federal Reserve printing money to buy government bonds, thus indirectly financing the government.

However, the cost of this approach is inflation. An increase in the money supply means a decrease in the purchasing power of each dollar. Based on 2008 figures, the purchasing power of one dollar will be only about 0.73 dollars by 2025, representing a cumulative inflation rate of over 27%. If debt monetization continues to accelerate, inflationary pressures will worsen further, and this time, the burden will fall on the savings and living costs of ordinary people.

The essence is the same, but the scale has been upgraded.

Let's look at the two crises side by side, and you'll find striking similarities:

During the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the total US national debt was approximately $10 trillion, accounting for 65% of GDP; by 2025, the US debt had soared to $38 trillion, equivalent to 123% of GDP. The annual fiscal deficit that year was $450 billion (3.2% of GDP), now it has expanded to $1.8 trillion (6.2% of GDP). The Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded from $800 billion to $4.5 trillion, and currently stands at approximately $7 trillion. In 2008, the US paid $250 billion in annual debt interest; by 2025, this figure has risen to $1.2 trillion, an increase of approximately 380%. The US government launched TARP and QE1 that year, providing a total bailout of approximately $2.7 trillion; now it is unable to implement interventions of the same scale. The unemployment rate peaked at 10% in 2009; while a significant unemployment surge has not yet occurred, warning signs are already emerging. In terms of credit rating, it was still rated AAA in 2008, but has now been downgraded to AA+ by S&P and Fitch.

The two crises are essentially the same: both are systemic risks caused by excessive credit expansion, both require "printing money" to transfer costs, and both erode ordinary people's ability to save wealth.

So why Bitcoin?

When the 2008 financial crisis broke out, Bitcoin was just a concept. The genesis block was only created on January 3, 2009. There were no exchanges, no price, no ecosystem, and only a very few cryptographers discussing this experimental electronic cash system. Its total market capitalization was zero , and it had no real-world impact.

By 2025, the situation had changed dramatically. Bitcoin had been running stably for 17 years without ever crashing; hundreds of thousands of nodes were distributed globally, with a computing power of 650 EH/s , and its security was unprecedented. Its total market capitalization was approximately $2.4 trillion , surpassing silver to become the world's seventh-largest asset.

At the institutional level, BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF manages $89 billion in assets; at the sovereign level, countries like El Salvador and Bhutan have included Bitcoin in their national reserves; and at the corporate level, MicroStrategy holds 640,808 Bitcoins , worth approximately $69 billion at current prices. From a price of zero to $126,200 per coin , Bitcoin has completed a long-term price validation across the entire market.

More importantly, Bitcoin has not only stood the test of time, but has also withstood several crises that threatened to destroy the top:

• Prices plummeted 84% during the 2018 bear market, but the internet remained resilient.
• During the 2020 pandemic, it plummeted by 50% in 24 hours, but recovered quickly.
• During the crypto winter of 2022, FTX went bankrupt and Luna collapsed, but Bitcoin still maintained a price above $10,000.

This means that when the next systemic crisis arrives, people will have an alternative solution that has been proven in practice over 17 years:

A decentralized system that has never defaulted, never issued new tokens, and has never been shut down.

In 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto asked a question: "If we can't trust banks, what can we trust?"

By 2025, this question will escalate to: "If we can't even trust sovereign credit, what can we trust?"

The answer in 2008 was an experiment, an idea, and a white paper of only nine pages.

The answer in 2025 is a validated system, a $2.4 trillion asset class, and a network that has been running for 17 years.

Reconstructing the Identity of Cryptocurrency Holders: From Utopia to Wall Street

Satoshi Nakamoto envisioned Bitcoin in his white paper as a purely peer-to-peer electronic cash system. No intermediaries, no censorship, no inflation— this is a manifesto of a technological utopia against a financial Leviathan.

The early Bitcoin community was a group of cypherpunks, hackers, and libertarians. They discussed code on forums, bought pizzas with Bitcoin (on May 22, 2010, Laszlo Hanyecz bought two pizzas with 10,000 BTC, worth over $1.2 billion today), and verified censorship-resistant payments on the Silk Road.

But history never follows the script of idealists. The evolution of Bitcoin has been full of compromises, controversies, and unexpected twists and turns.

2017: The Chicago Mercantile Exchange launched BTC futures: Wall Street officially recognized Bitcoin as a financial asset for the first time. Although this sparked controversy over "betraying the spirit of decentralization," it also marked Bitcoin's move from the periphery to the mainstream.

2021: Tesla's high-stakes gamble with MicroStrategy: Michael Saylor pioneered the concept of "corporate treasury strategy" by fully Bitcoinizing MicroStrategy's (now Strategy) balance sheet. In February 2021, Tesla purchased $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin. The involvement of these traditional companies transformed Bitcoin from a "speculative asset" into an "asset allocation option."

September 2021: El Salvador's National Experiment: Under President Nayib Bukele, El Salvador became the world's first country to recognize Bitcoin as legal tender. Despite strong opposition from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and a controversial implementation process, this marked the first time Bitcoin was recognized at the sovereign state level. As of September 2025, El Salvador held 6,313 BTC, worth over $700 million, with unrealized gains exceeding $400 million.

January 2024: A Milestone for ETFs: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs, including those from giants such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark Investments. This was one of the most important turning points in Bitcoin's history.

Who is buying it?

Bitcoin is no longer just a game for retail investors and tech enthusiasts; it has been formally incorporated into the asset allocation plans of mainstream institutions. An increasing amount of institutional funds are entering the Bitcoin market through compliant channels such as ETFs.

The Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB) , a public pension fund managing approximately $156 billion in assets, purchased $164 million worth of Bitcoin ETFs in the second quarter of 2024, holding approximately 99,000 shares of IBIT and 71,000 shares of FBTC , becoming one of the first U.S. state-level pension funds to publicly disclose its Bitcoin exposure.

Harvard Management Company also made an allocation in the second quarter of 2024, investing approximately $116 million in a Bitcoin ETF and holding approximately 1.9 million shares of IBIT . This marks one of the world's most influential education endowments officially including Bitcoin in its long-term asset portfolio.

Morgan Stanley has 15 million clients purchasing Bitcoin ETFs through wealth management accounts, with a minimum investment threshold of $100,000 per account . This indicates that traditional financial clients are gaining access to Bitcoin assets in a compliant manner.

More extensive data shows that over 937 institutions disclosed Bitcoin ETF holdings in their SEC 13F quarterly reports, covering various types of long-term capital, including pension funds, endowments, hedge funds, and family offices .

Philosophical Reflection: Compromise or Maturity?

This evolution has sparked heated debate.

Critics say that Wall Street's embrace is a form of "co-optation." When BlackRock holds a large amount of Bitcoin, and when ETFs become the main gateway, Bitcoin loses its decentralized soul and becomes just another asset controlled by financial elites and "old money."

Supporters argue that wider adoption is an inevitable evolution. Bitcoin's core values—fixed supply, decentralization, and censorship resistance—remain unchanged. Even if Wall Street buys Bitcoin, they cannot alter the protocol rules or print new Bitcoins.

In fact, the compromise in form makes the core uncompromising.

Bitcoin didn't change itself to cater to Wall Street; rather, Wall Street had to accept Bitcoin's rules. When BlackRock wanted to hold Bitcoin, they had to learn how to manage private keys, accept the decentralized network, and acknowledge the supply cap of 21,000,000 coins.

For the first time, traditional finance has yielded to Bitcoin.

When Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin, his goal was not to make it a tool for a small circle, but to create a monetary system that everyone could use, everyone could verify, and no one could control . From this perspective, institutional adoption by Wall Street was inevitable.

Bitcoin is an asset that will always benefit from the increase in entropy in the real world.

"Entropy Increase": The Key to Understanding Chaos

Let me introduce a concept from physics: entropy .

In the second law of thermodynamics, entropy is a measure of the degree of disorder in a system. The entropy of a closed system always tends to increase—this is called "entropy increase." Coffee gets cold, a room gets messy; order always evolves towards disorder.

But this physical concept is precisely the best analogy for understanding the value of Bitcoin.

In economic and social systems, "entropy increase" is not an abstract metaphor; it actually occurs in every complex system we live in.

Imagine a company that has just been established. It is small in scale, has clear goals, and simple processes . Everyone knows what they should do, information is transmitted efficiently, and decisions are made clearly. At this time, the "entropy" of the system is very low.

However, as the company expanded, increased hierarchical structures, staff turnover, interdepartmental conflicts of interest, information delays, and rigid systems gradually emerged. The initial clear order began to be replaced by noise: meetings became more frequent, documents became longer, responsibilities became increasingly blurred, and managers spent more time "coordinating" than "taking action." At some point, the company seemed to have lost its initial sense of direction.

This is a typical example of "organizational entropy increase".

The same applies to economic systems. The more money is issued, the more complex the debt, and the more entangled the relationship between politics and finance, the harder it is for the system to maintain its original order. Every crisis is a natural manifestation of increasing entropy.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is an anti-entropy mechanism .

Bitcoin's "negative entropy" property

1. Supply rigidity: the ironclad rule of 21,000,000 pieces.

In a fiat currency system, the money supply is flexible and arbitrary. Central banks can freely adjust liquidity according to economic conditions, and this "adjustment" often means printing more money. Take the US dollar as an example: in 2008, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was approximately $800 billion, and the M2 money supply was $7.5 trillion; by 2020, these figures had expanded to $4.5 trillion and $15.5 trillion respectively; and by 2025, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet had reached $7 trillion, and the M2 money supply had soared to $21 trillion. In just 17 years, the US dollar's money supply increased by 180%, equivalent to diluting the purchasing power of ordinary people's savings by nearly two-thirds.

This trend is not unique to the United States. The Bank of Japan's balance sheet is equivalent to 130% of GDP, the largest in the world; the European Central Bank launched a bond-buying program totaling 1.85 trillion euros during the pandemic; and China's M2 will grow from 47 trillion yuan in 2008 to 280 trillion yuan in 2025, expanding nearly sixfold.

We can understand it this way: Suppose there were originally only 100 apples in the world, and you owned 10 of them, accounting for 10% of the total. But if the central bank suddenly "prints" 900 new apples, making the total number 1,000, your 10 apples remain the same, but you only account for 1% of the total. Your absolute wealth has not decreased, but your relative wealth has been diluted by 90%.

Bitcoin's supply mechanism is the complete opposite. Its issuance rules are written into the code, with a fixed total supply of 21 million coins , which is automatically halved every four years, and no one can change this.

As of November 2025 , Bitcoin's supply curve is nearing its end. Approximately 19,580,000 Bitcoins have been mined, representing 93.2% of the total supply . The remaining approximately 1,420,000 Bitcoins (6.8%) will be released gradually over 115 years through halving cycles every four years.

This means that Bitcoin is entering an unprecedented "scarcity era." First, its inflation rate continues to decline, with an annual inflation rate of approximately 1.7% in 2024, and will drop to approximately 0.85% after the next halving (2028), well below the Federal Reserve's long-term inflation target of 2%.

Secondly, Bitcoin also faces a natural deflationary effect . It is estimated that approximately one million Bitcoins are permanently lost each year due to lost private keys, the death of the holder, or operational errors. This means that the actual circulating supply is constantly decreasing.

2. Decentralized: No single point of failure

When a system becomes too centralized, it becomes susceptible to corruption, manipulation, and abuse. Concentrating power in the hands of a few means that risk and decision-making are equally concentrated; and if a mistake occurs, the entire system will bear the consequences.

This centralization is particularly evident in the traditional financial system .

The power to issue currency is in the hands of a very small number of people—the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has only seven members, yet it can determine the direction of monetary policy for trillions of dollars. The payment system is controlled by a few giants such as SWIFT, Visa, and Mastercard, who have the power to freeze transactions of any individual or institution. Bank accounts do not truly belong to individuals; a single executive order can freeze assets—the 2022 Canadian truck driver protests are a prime example.

In stark contrast is the decentralized reality of the Bitcoin network . As of 2025, there were approximately 180,000 full nodes operating globally, distributed across the world: 35% in North America, 40% in Europe, 20% in Asia, and the remaining 5% spread across the globe. Anyone can run a node—it requires only a regular computer and a 2TB hard drive, costing around $500. The existence of nodes means that rules are verified collectively by all participants, rather than being decided by a central authority.

In terms of computing power, the security of the Bitcoin network is maintained collectively by miners distributed globally. The total network hashrate is approximately 650 EH/s , with the top five mining pools accounting for about 55% of the total, but no single entity controls more than 25%. The geographical distribution is also widespread: the United States accounts for 38%, Canada 7%, Russia 5%, Kazakhstan 4%, and the remainder is scattered across Latin America, Europe, and Southeast Asia. This distribution ensures that no single country, institution, or company can unilaterally control or shut down the network.

3. Transparency

Furthermore, Bitcoin's transparency eliminates the information black box inherent in the traditional financial system. In the world of fiat currency, the public is often excluded from crucial data—the destination of funds from the 2008 bailout program remains unclear, the details of the Federal Reserve's QE asset purchases are opaque, and currency swaps with foreign central banks are often kept secret. Even in the 2023 collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, customers were completely unaware that the bank's balance sheet contained a large amount of loss-making long-term bonds.

In the Bitcoin system, this asymmetry is almost non-existent. Every transaction, every block, and every transfer is publicly recorded on the blockchain, and anyone can independently verify it.

Historical evidence shows a positive correlation between entropy increase and BTC price.

Let's look at the data.

March 2020: The COVID-19 pandemic broke out.

Central banks around the world launched unprecedented quantitative easing, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet swelled from $4.2 trillion to $7.4 trillion in one year. Bitcoin's reaction? It surged from $3,800 (a low in March 2020) to $69,000 (November 2021)—an increase of over 1,700%.

2022: The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Financial Sanctions

Western countries have frozen approximately $300 billion of Russia's foreign exchange reserves. This unprecedented weaponization of finance has prompted many countries around the world to rethink the security of their reserve assets.

2024-2025: ETF Approval and the US Debt Crisis

When US debt surpassed the $35 trillion mark, when interest payments exceeded defense spending, and when the CBO predicted that debt would reach 135% of GDP by 2035, Bitcoin broke its all-time high, reaching $126,200.

Future projections: Accelerated entropy increase

Looking ahead, three trends will further accelerate the increase of entropy in the real world:

1. The Impact of Artificial Intelligence

The rise of artificial intelligence is profoundly reshaping the global labor market. As AI gradually replaces a large number of repetitive jobs, structural unemployment may become a long-term phenomenon. At that time, governments may have to implement universal basic income (UBI) to maintain social stability. And the source of funding for UBI is almost a foregone conclusion—printing money. New currency issuance means new inflationary pressures and another round of "monetary entropy increase."

At the same time, the explosive growth of AI-generated content is making the "truth" increasingly obscured. Images, sounds, and text can all be faked by algorithms, and the reliability of information is rapidly declining—a manifestation of "information entropy increase." In such a world where truth and falsehood are indistinguishable, an immutable and verifiable ledger system will be of paramount importance.

2. Resource competition

Frequent extreme weather events, energy and food shortages, and supply chain conflicts are all exacerbating the inequality in global resource allocation. The failure of international cooperation mechanisms is leading to a fragmentation of the world order—another manifestation of "increasing entropy of order."

As trust systems between nations continue to crumble, a neutral, decentralized settlement layer becomes especially necessary. Bitcoin transcends national borders and political stances; in a fragmented world, it can serve as the minimum consensus to maintain global value exchange.

3. Intergenerational wealth gap

Generation Z and Millennials grew up in the shadow of the financial crisis. They witnessed their parents' housing bubble burst, the heavy burden of student loans, and the gradual collapse of the pension system. For them, distrust of the traditional financial system is not an emotional rebellion, but a realistic and structural understanding.

According to a 2025 VanEck survey, in emerging markets, younger consumers are more inclined to choose Bitcoin over gold as a store of value. They grew up in the digital age, trust algorithms more than institutions, and code more than authority.

As long as the "chaos index" of the real world continues to rise—excessive money supply, runaway debt, geopolitical divisions, and information pollution—the value of Bitcoin as an "anchor of order" will continue to increase.

The "Satoshis" of 17 years later

Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared in 2011, leaving behind code and a question: "Can this experiment continue?"

Seventeen years have passed, and the answer is yes. But this answer was not given by Satoshi Nakamoto alone, but written by countless "Satoshi Nakamotos"—those who continue its spirit, redefine its meaning, and expand its boundaries.

The guardian of the technical layer: code is the constitution

The Core developer community (such as Wladimir van der Laan and Pieter Wuille) are the "anonymous guardians" of Bitcoin. During the 2017 SegWit2x battle, large mining pools and exchanges jointly pushed for increased block size, attempting to change Bitcoin's fundamental rules. The Core developers refused to compromise, insisting that "Bitcoin's value lies in the immutability of its rules." Ultimately, the community sided with them, proving a principle: code is the constitution, and no one can unilaterally change it.

Lightning Network developers (such as Elizabeth Stark) have built a Layer 2 payment network on top of Bitcoin, enabling small, frequent payments. El Salvador is using the Lightning Network to realize everyday payment scenarios—making the original vision of "peer-to-peer electronic cash" possible again without compromising the security of the underlying layer.

Pioneers in the Application Layer: From Concept to Reality

Nayib Bukele , President of El Salvador, is a pioneer in daring national-level experimentation. On September 7, 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. Bukele launched the Chivo wallet (based on the Lightning Network), offered every citizen a $30 Bitcoin reward, installed 200 Bitcoin ATMs, and implemented a "buy 1 Bitcoin daily" strategy starting in November 2022. He also did something unprecedented: in March 2024, he publicly released the national Bitcoin wallet address, allowing the world to view El Salvador's holdings in real time.

As of September 2025, El Salvador held 6,313 Bitcoins, with an investment of approximately $300 million and unrealized gains exceeding $400 million (a return of 133%). The actual effects were significant: tourism grew by 55% ("Bitcoin pilgrimage"), remittance costs dropped from 10% to less than 1% (cumulative savings of $2.4 billion), and 3 million people (47% of the population) used the Chivo wallet. Despite strong opposition from the IMF, which demanded the removal of Bitcoin's fiat currency status in exchange for a $1.3 billion loan, Bukele ultimately only agreed to make merchant acceptance of Bitcoin "voluntary," while retaining its fiat currency status and continuing purchases.

Bukele's vision is clear: "When the dollar eventually loses its reserve currency status, countries that prepare in advance will be the winners. El Salvador will be one of them." Regardless of the ultimate success or failure of this experiment, El Salvador, a small country with a population of 6.4 million, is writing the boldest national experiment in Bitcoin history, and its outcome will influence the future attitudes of various countries towards Bitcoin.

Michael Saylor , Executive Chairman of Strategy, has taken "enterprise Bitcoinization" to the extreme. In August 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic caused corporate cash to depreciate, Saylor made a radical decision: to fully Bitcoinize MicroStrategy's balance sheet. He raised funds through convertible bonds and stocks to continuously purchase Bitcoin, creating the "Bitcoin barbell strategy": using debt and equity financing to buy Bitcoin, and using Bitcoin's appreciation to repay debt, achieving a positive feedback loop.

As of October 30, 2025, Strategy held 640,808 bitcoins (approximately 3% of the total supply), with a total cost of about $42.4 billion, a current value of about $69 billion, and unrealized gains of $26.6 billion. The company's stock price has risen 3,300% over the past five years, far exceeding Bitcoin's own 1,100% increase. Saylor's strategy is now being imitated by dozens of publicly traded companies (Metaplanet, Marathon Holdings, etc.), forming a new category of "Bitcoin treasury companies."

Saylor's philosophy is simple: "Bitcoin is the highest form of property in human history. We will not sell Bitcoin, never. The person who acquires the most Bitcoin wins." He transformed a traditional software company with a market capitalization of $1 billion into a Bitcoin development company with a market capitalization of over $121 billion through a Bitcoin strategy. This is one of the boldest balance sheet restructurings in corporate finance history.

Evangelists of the Thought Level: Connecting Two Worlds

Lyn Alden , a macroeconomic analyst, explains Bitcoin's monetary attributes using the language of traditional finance. Her research reports are widely read by Wall Street fund managers and pension fund managers. Her core argument is that Bitcoin is not a "digital tulip," but rather an "upgrade in monetary technology"—the path of monetary evolution is from "difficult to counterfeit" to "easy to carry," and Bitcoin satisfies both conditions (more difficult to counterfeit than gold, and easier to carry than paper money). She is a bridge connecting traditional finance and the crypto world.

Nic Carter , a partner at Castle Island Ventures, has reinterpreted the energy issue of Bitcoin mining. Addressing criticism that "Bitcoin consumes too much energy," he proposes a new framework: energy consumption itself is not the problem; the problem is whether energy is wasted. He points out that 52% of Bitcoin mining uses renewable energy, and many miners utilize "wasted electricity" (excess power from hydroelectric plants), with mining also acting as a "grid stabilizer." This work has changed ESG investors' perceptions of Bitcoin, enabling more institutional funds to allocate in compliance with regulations.

Infrastructure builders: Lowering the barriers

Brian Armstrong , CEO of Coinbase, built a compliant exchange that makes Bitcoin safe for ordinary people. Coinbase is the custodian of 7 out of 11 Bitcoin ETFs, proving that the vast majority of people need a regulated, user-friendly gateway.

Jack Dorsey , founder of Block (formerly Square), integrated Bitcoin payments into mainstream applications through Cash App. In 2018, Cash App became the first mainstream payment application to support Bitcoin buying and selling, and by 2024, more than 13 million Americans had purchased Bitcoin through Cash App—the most concrete manifestation of Bitcoin's "mass adoption." Dorsey also funded the Bitcoin Development Kit, an open-source toolkit that helps developers easily build Bitcoin applications.

Satoshi Nakamoto designed the engine; these people built the road. The success of Bitcoin is not just Satoshi Nakamoto's success, but the collective achievement of countless people willing to inherit his spirit.

What is the spirit of contemporary Bitcoin?

When AI can forge any voice or any face, we need an unforgeable ledger .

When regulators say "innovation must be within the boundaries we define," we need permissionless space for innovation .

While everyone is celebrating “crypto is finally being accepted by the mainstream,” we need someone to remember that Bitcoin was never meant to be accepted, but rather to exist even when it is not accepted .

In an increasingly centralized world, preserving a decentralized option —that is the contemporary significance of the Bitcoin spirit.

Conclusion

Let me return to the question at the beginning of the article: Why do we still need Bitcoin 17 years from now?

Bitcoin itself has provided four answers:

1. Historical perspective : The problems of 2008 have not been resolved, but have become even more severe in 2025.
2. Functionally : Bitcoin has evolved from a payment tool to a store of value.
3. On a philosophical level : Bitcoin is a negative entropy mechanism that combats the increase of entropy.
4. On a spiritual level : Amidst the triple siege of AI, regulation, and institutionalization, the spirit of Bitcoin is the courage to continue questioning and creating.

But the most truthful answer might be simpler:

Seventeen years later, we still need Bitcoin.

Not because it is perfect,

It's not because the world is good enough.