The rise of "soft gambling" such as opening blind boxes and winning discounts in raffles reveals the addictive business model

The article explores the rise of "soft gambling," a low-stakes, habit-forming behavior exemplified by blind boxes, raffle discounts, and social casino apps, which primarily targets female consumers.
Women dominate user demographics (e.g., 75% of Pop Mart buyers, 72% of Slotomania players), contrasting sharply with traditional gambling's male-dominated audience.
Key examples include:
- Pop Mart: Blind boxes with hidden collectibles, fostering a 50% repurchase rate through emotional engagement.
- Shein/Temu: Gamified shopping with spin-the-wheel discounts, driving frequent app usage.
- Social casino apps: Virtual slot machines monetized via in-app purchases, emphasizing ritual over risk.
Psychological drivers differ by gender: women seek emotional regulation and social connection, while men chase high-risk rewards.
Business models thrive on microtransactions, with high retention rates (e.g., Pop Mart’s 60% profit margin) fueled by collectibility and dopamine-triggering rituals.
Platforms like TikTok Shop and Temu amplify engagement by framing shopping as a game, where the thrill of uncertainty outweighs the prize itself.
The trend reflects a shift from monetary stakes to "possibility economy" experiences, offering guilt-free suspense and habitual engagement.

By John Wang , Crypto KOL

Compiled by Felix, PANews

One girl bought three Pop Mart blind boxes and filmed a cozy unboxing video on TikTok. “Hopefully I get the Sleepy Bear… but honestly, anything cute will do,” she murmured.

A boy ripped open a $500 Pokémon booster box during a livestream, his eyes glued to the camera. "This whole box is worthless if I don't get the PSA 10 Charizard," he muttered.

Gambling doesn't always look like poker chips and slot machines. Sometimes it looks like pink bunnies, blind boxes, and whispery TikTok videos. Somewhere between retail therapy and roulette, a new behavioral habit for female consumers is emerging. The same random reward mechanism, but with completely different stakes, atmosphere, and psychology. And then there's "softcore gambling": a subdued casino where the goal is comfort, not conquest.

1. Women are the main target group

Take a look at the user demographics of the largest “soft gambling” brands:

Pop Mart blind box toys: 75% are female, and the repurchase rate is 50% (crazy)
Cross-border e-commerce platforms Shein and Temu: Women account for 63% to 66%, while Amazon's users are mainly men.
Social casino app Slotomania: 72% of active players are women, primarily in the 35 to 55 age group.

By comparison, only 4% of the 2025 World Series of Poker participants were women.

The further away from the game of real money and towards pure surprise, the more female audiences there will be.

2. What does “soft gambling” look like?

Pop Mart. Each series features 12 adorable dolls, one or two of which are "hidden" models. Each box costs $10, and there's guaranteed to be a prize inside, but it might not be the one you're looking for. Collectors film unboxing videos, swap duplicate models, and keep coming back. According to the company, nearly half of its customers make another purchase within a year.
E-commerce platforms Shein and Temu. Raffle boxes are either spin-wheel draw tickets or two-hour flash sales. Shopping becomes a video game loop like "Candy Crush": click the draw, reveal the results, get a dopamine rush, and repeat.
Social casino apps like Slotomania or Bingo Blitz push the same buttons on the numbers (free spins, streamer bonuses, zero real risk) to rake in billions of dollars through in-app purchases of virtual items.

All three follow the variable reward mechanics familiar to casino designers, but the stakes are emotional, not monetary. Unlike poker or slot machines, these systems rarely publish payouts, fostering a more subdued atmosphere. It's a low-stakes, soft-feedback-loop type of gambling designed to foster habitual engagement rather than thrill-seeking.

3. Why is the effect so significant?

You never lose out completely. Whether it's a bunny or a $2 lipstick, you always get something. That sense of security is what keeps people engaged.
The sense of ritual outweighs the high stakes. Opening the box, clicking the wheel, revealing the prize—these small rituals punctuate the day. A Pop Mart fan might whisper, "Hope it's that Sleepy Bear..." as they unbox their item, accompanied by TikTok music. Compare this to GTO expected value calculations and high-stakes gambles in poker. The former is self-consolation, the latter a zero-sum game.
Aesthetics trumps conquest: The prize isn't resale value, but how an item fits into the atmosphere, shelf, or mood. Pop Mart fans don't flaunt price tags; instead, they create scenes with playful Laboo and Sanrio plush toys. Male collectors often chase the allure of a single item ("I won the Pocket Rocket!"), while female collectors tend to seek complete sets that reflect their personal tastes ("I finally won the pink bunny, completing my zodiac sign collection").
Sharing joy, not player-versus-player competition: Memecoin traders show off pictures of 1,000% profits. Pokémon unboxers flaunt rare $400 items. Pop Mart unboxers display duplicate items on TikTok, asking, "Anyone want this pink bunny?" The former is about comparison, the latter about sharing and empathy.
Saving money is better than making money: Shein shoppers spin a wheel for 20% off and invite friends to unlock coupons. The thrill is the dopamine rush of unlocking the deal, not beating the market.

 Temu and Shein's apps are half shopping and half "social gambling" mini-games that unlock discounts on items. It's very real and very addictive.

4. Gambling Motives

Academic research confirms this behavioral difference:

A 2024 study in the journal Addictive Behaviors found that men gamble more for money and competition, while women gamble for escape, emotional regulation, and social connection.

Another study showed that women respond more strongly to low-risk reward loops, while men participate more when the risk and potential reward are higher.

Men gamble for glory; women gamble for pleasure.

5. Business Model with Crazy Retention Rate

Low prices and high sales are the driving force. Pop Mart's gross profit margin is about 60%; Shein has users opening the app over 100 times per month. This kind of casino doesn't need whales, but rather hundreds of millions of bets of 10 yuan each.

User lifetime value isn't driven by big prizes or rankings. It's built on emotional attachment, soft rituals, and the desire to collect the whole set. This is why Pop Mart's retention rate far exceeds that of traditional toy brands and mainstream retail.

6. Shopping is now gambling

Whether you call it blind box retail, a fashionable lottery or a soft slot machine, its mechanism has elements of gambling, but lacks the wildness of gambling.

Shein, Temu, and TikTok Shop all take the same dopamine-boosting framework and scale it up into complete retail ecosystems:

Shein: Daily wheel prize draw, App-exclusive flash sale gift packs, recommended push instead of search, and over 100 app opens per month
Temu: Flash sales, social invitation coupon roulette, first-day "spin-wheel lottery" mechanism (female clicks are 1.4 times that of males)
TikTok Shop: Shoppable unboxing videos with the "Mystery Pack" tag have 2-4 times the engagement of regular merchandise. This "surprise premium" is real.

Each platform turns shopping into a gamified cycle: view → enter → possibly win → repeat. Counterintuitively, the prize isn’t the item itself, but the dopamine rush of opening the box.

7. Conclusion

For women who rarely find themselves at the poker tables, these softer venues offer the same suspense without any of the stigma.

The feminine side of gambling isn't chasing the jackpot. It's chasing the feeling: the moment before the box opens, the wheel stops spinning, or the flash sale appears. This proves that ten dollars can actually buy happiness. And that makes the "possibility economy" the most addictive casino on Earth.