Trading time: Trump releases positive news to boost the crypto market, Bitcoin breaks $100,000 again, Ethereum surges 20%, analysis reminds of the seasonal pattern of "sell in May"

1. Market observation

Keywords: SOL, ETH, BTC

After the United Kingdom and the United States reached a trade agreement, Trump immediately encouraged investors to "buy stocks now." This series of good news ignited market optimism. According to the agreement, the export tariffs on British steel and aluminum products to the United States will be abolished, and the automobile tariff will be significantly reduced from 27.5% to 10%. However, the 10% "reciprocal tariff" previously imposed by the United States will remain. Boosted by this, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose collectively, with the S&P 500 index rising nearly 1.6% at one point, and the Nasdaq soaring 2%. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index returned to above the 100 mark, resulting in a general weakening of non-U.S. currencies. Gold was also under pressure due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Spot gold fell below $3,300 overnight, a drop of nearly 2%.

The cryptocurrency market was also boosted by Trump's call. Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 mark for the first time since February, and hit $104,000 this morning, briefly surpassing Amazon to become the world's fifth largest asset. This strong rise led to a short position blowout of $836 million yesterday, making it the largest single day in history. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered Bank, said that the previous target of $120,000 for Bitcoin in the second quarter "may be too conservative." However, BTSE Chief Operating Officer Jeff Mei also reminded investors to pay attention to the seasonal pattern of "selling in May" - historical data shows that Bitcoin fell 35% in May 2021 and 15% in May 2022.

Ethereum performed even better, soaring more than 20% in a single day, breaking through $2,200, and the ETH/BTC ratio returned to the 0.02 level after a month. Despite this, Ethereum still has a lot of room to rise to return to its historical high of 0.05. It is worth noting that despite the price increase and the recent Pectra upgrade of the network, Ethereum network activity remains flat, with weak growth in transaction volume and active addresses. Since 2021, on-chain activities at the base layer have stagnated, and institutional demand has generally been on a downward trend. Therefore, the sustainability of its upward trend remains to be seen.

The altcoin market followed the trend of mainstream coins and rose across the board, with some strong coins rising by more than 20%. Many projects in the Ethereum ecosystem performed particularly well, such as MOODENG, NEIRO, PEPE, EIGEN, LQTY, ETHFI, etc., with increases of more than 30%. In contrast, Solana's rise was relatively mild, rising only 8% to $162, and its on-chain activities seemed to be diverted by the secondary market, with no high-quality fast-through disks appearing in the past 24 hours. Interestingly, there is a clear conversion of capital flows between crypto assets and other digital asset markets - the CS jewelry market has fallen sharply in recent days, forming an almost opposite trend to the crypto market, and basically recovering the gains of the previous week.

The CS jewelry market has seen a sharp decline

2. Key data (as of 12:00 HKT on May 9)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN, Steamdt)

Bitcoin: $102,546 (+9.78% YTD), daily spot volume $47.583 billion
Ethereum: $2,214.65 (-33.49% YTD), with daily spot volume of $37.764 billion
Fear of Greed Index: 73 (Greed)
Average GAS: BTC 1.01 sat/vB, ETH 1.07 Gwei
Market share: BTC 63.4%, ETH 8.3%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, LAYER, BTC, ETH, VIRTUAL
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9623
Sector gains and losses: Meme sector rose 10.14%, AI sector rose 9.98%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 186,745 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$865 million, including BTC liquidation of US$342 million, ETH liquidation of US$285 million, and SOL liquidation of US$25.86 million
BTC medium and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($97519.88), lower channel line ($95588.79)
ETH medium and long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($1914.51), lower line ($1876.60)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly within the range or in the short term, it is a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of May 8)

Bitcoin ETF: $117 million
Ethereum ETF: -$16.11 million (net outflow for 3 consecutive days)

4. Today’s Outlook

Doodles will launch $DOOD airdrop tonight at 21:05
Coinbase plans to launch 24/7 Bitcoin and Ethereum futures trading on May 9
Movement (MOVE) will unlock approximately 50 million tokens at 8:00 PM on May 9, accounting for 2.0% of the current circulation and worth approximately $8.7 million.

The stocks with the largest increases in the top 500 by market value today: MOODENG up 100.15%, PNUT up 48.05%, NEIRO up 42.06%, VIRTUAL up 32.50%, and EIGEN up 30.49%.