Compiled by Tim, PANews
In a piece of news that I think has been overlooked on crypto Twitter, the CEO of ConsenSys recently announced that the MetaMask token is coming soon. His exact words were: “The MASK token is coming sooner than you might expect.”
MetaMask adoption
I personally stopped using MetaMask a long time ago because I prefer the interface and functionality of Rabby, but MetaMask still has the first-mover advantage. It remains the most popular wallet to this day, with 143 million users.
MetaMask Revenue Analysis
MetaMask has multiple revenue streams:
- MetaMask Swap: Built-in DEX aggregator, charging approximately 0.9% per swap
- Deposits and Withdrawals: Buy cryptocurrencies with your bank card
- Cross-chain bridge: cross-chain token transfer
- Staking: Stake ETH directly through MetaMask Portfolio
- Institutional Edition: MetaMask institutional solution for funds and enterprises.
Over the past three months, MetaMask’s weekly trading volume has ranged between $60 million and $200 million.
That translates to an average weekly revenue of $1.5 million, or about $72 million a year, but last year's figures were even higher, at about $2.5 million a week, or $120 million a year.
Cross-chain bridge revenue could reach $100,000 per day, adding another $36 million per year.
Other revenue contributes approximately $10 million annually, bringing MetaMask’s total annual revenue to approximately $120 million.
FDV estimation
We don’t yet know the economic model and actual utility of the MetaMask token, but it wouldn’t be surprising if there were some sort of revenue sharing or buyback mechanism. If so, the revenue would drive its valuation.
To gauge a reasonable fully diluted valuation/revenue multiple, we can refer to other wallet tokens such as TWT, SFP, XDEFI, and GNO.
Under conservative expectations, the fully diluted valuation to revenue ratio could reach 100x.
Based on current annual revenue of approximately $120 million, this means its fully diluted valuation could be close to $12 billion.
By comparison, Trust Wallet, the second most used wallet, has a FDV of $1.32 billion for its token, TWT, so it’s hard to imagine MetaMask’s token launch valuation being less than $5 billion FDV.
Possibly the largest airdrop ever
The largest airdrops in history currently include Uniswap, ApeCoin, dYdX, and Arbitrum, and the MetaMask airdrop is very likely to change this top airdrop list and may even join or even surpass this camp.
If we assume a net FDV of $12 billion and airdrop 20% to MetaMask users, the potential distribution would be $2.4 billion, which would easily put it in the top three.
Despite the massive total, it will be distributed across over 140 million users. What makes this airdrop special is its large eligible user base, which amplifies both the total value and the reach.
The large user base, consistent revenue, clear utility, and quadrennial market hype could make this a historic airdrop.
How to Earn Money from MetaMask Token Distribution?
I usually say maximize your airdrop opportunities, but if you haven’t started actively participating yet, it might be too late now, especially considering the ConsenSys CEO hinted that the mainnet launch is imminent.
One strategy now is to do pre-orders. It is expected that the MetaMask token will be listed on Whales Market soon. Apparently, I am not the only one waiting for this listing news.
I would keep a close eye on the FDV pre-IPO: if the opening valuation is below $5 billion, it might be attractive to buy in early, though expect very high volatility.
MetaMask may also launch token incentive programs, such as mUSD liquidity pools, staking opportunities, or trading rewards. This may be a good way to obtain MetaMask tokens early with high annualized returns.
Given the large number of potential recipients of the tokens, the first 24 hours after the airdrop are likely to be extremely volatile, creating huge arbitrage opportunities between centralized and decentralized exchanges.
Concerns after LINEA's failure
ConsenSys launched LINEA a few weeks ago but made some major missteps.
Technical issues occurred during the TGE, including distribution delays and network congestion.
The actual use of the tokens is still unclear, and there was a huge sell-off by whales immediately after the airdrop.
Many have complained that Binance Alpha users received faster and more favorable access than the majority of the community.
I just hope ConsenSys learns from its previous mistakes and avoids repeating them with MetaMask, especially preventing Binance Alpha or insiders from getting token and listing news before the core MetaMask user base.
