When the world was young, a shared belief ignited a global fire, and Web3 was its last glimmer of hope. But how long can this flame shine?
I should have talked at length about how Variational uses the RFQ architecture for market making, or cheered for the institutional adoption of stablecoins, or at least written three long articles about replacing x402 with Meme.
Unfortunately, none of them exist. Recently, I have a feeling that the ability of Web3 to “live” is continuously declining:
1. The CTO is back in the game, and the CTO meme is widely known, but it no longer feels novel.
2. The Solana conference encountered turmoil, and new talents emerge in the cryptocurrency world, each shining for a few days;
3. The YaYa market is run by the masses, the CS accessories market is blocked, and Facaster is busy with acquisitions.
In short, Web3 doesn't seem so cool anymore. O'Reilly in 2006, Gavin Wood in 2015, and Chris Dixon of A16Z in 2021 have all defined the term Web 3.0. Just like the term DePIN coined by a Messari poll, concepts need to be repeatedly given new life by the times.
Web3 Null Pointer
The comfortable sofa chair, the warm checkered carpet, and the trigger that was not pulled in time.
Crypto, blockchain, and Web 3 constitute our vague "crypto world," such as AI X Crypto, RWA pointing to blockchain, and the concept of user ownership pointing to Web 3.
Readability, writability, and ownership constitute the rhetorical division of Web 1.0/2.0/3.0, but Web3 points to nothingness.
How long has it been since you last heard anything about GameFi?
• Primary school students are trading in chicken skin
• College students are stockpiling CS weapons
• Adults become roast ducks in farm town
If we must issue a death certificate for GameFi, the cause of death can only be that the economic stimulus signals received by people in the cryptocurrency circle are too strong, making it difficult for them to be moved by games.
But what does this have to do with Yaya? The project was launched in mid-2024, and Bilibili incubated a 5-person studio called Carbonated Team. On October 16, "Escape from Yayakov" was released on Steam and the macOS App Store, priced at 58 yuan (51 yuan after discount), and sold 1 million copies in the first week.
Of course, it's far inferior to the miracle of Black Myth, but the public needs games with small creative ideas, low investment, and low difficulty to cultivate talent. Only such a market structure is healthy enough. The game industry needs more than just Battlefield 6 and GTA 6; it needs Dyson Sphere and Escape from Duckkov.
Image Caption: Duck Market
Image source: B station Cyerol:29329360
From a Web3 perspective, Yakov is quite immature. GameFi, which previously raised tens of millions of dollars in funding, shouldn't have failed to produce it. Moreover, besides imitating the hardcore style of Escape from Tarkov, it also shows two different approaches:
1. PVP search, strike and retreat, online interaction to kill all around, experience the tactical experience of a real team;
2. PEV Fun: The Duckkov team didn't have the money to make a mobile game, so they could only focus on evacuation and collection.
Within a week of its release, the Steam Workshop launched a massive modding competition, with online multiplayer and a marketplace appearing. Single-player games could also have trading markets. Unlimited funds and unlimited production meant the economic model would never go bankrupt, making it far more robust than dual-token or points-based systems.
Even though it doesn't generate revenue, players still flock to it, with tens of thousands trading on it at a time, like children playing house. The desire to share is innate. It's not that we need token incentives, but rather that token incentives require players. Homo sapiens evolved through cooperation, never through external stimuli.
Image source: YaYa Market Comments Section
From a cryptocurrency perspective, the double-spending problem has emerged, making blockchain a perfect solution. However, "it's not that the 'duck market' needs to be on-chain, but rather that the 'duck market' needs to be on-chain." We tend to prioritize economic factors and leave human interaction and experience for last.
A very embarrassing fact is that Web3 is rushing headlong into the direction of Gambling, and even the trend of foreigners using Chinese is because there is no more profit to be made. The mainland market still retains its last bit of purchasing power because of the constant pressure.
If institutionalization and financialization are the answers to everything, then there is no need to go to the trouble of re-entering China.
For retail investors, the most important thing is a sense of belonging, just like the x402 Meme Western craze, but will this really attract outsiders to use stablecoins?
The answer is self-evident: the problem with the entire crypto world right now is that it's not breaking out of its niche. Sun's reputation is bad, and USDT has really gone through a huge detour from the Third World to its entry into Europe and America.
The Secret Service requires 100 Yu Zechengs, and cryptocurrency requires 100 YaYa Markets, plus one Sun Ge.
Rentiers exclude production
He advised me to put down the sand in my hand, and I opened my mouth to sing but my voice was hoarse.
The leisure class emerged in the advanced stage of uncivilized culture, escaping the display of the superior economic status of the productive population.
Please take a look at LABUBU. The first generation of the wealthy needs to have their own unique fashion expression when it comes to the second generation. Whether it looks good or not is not important. What matters is that you agree that it looks good.
In other words, people need to use LABUBU's premiumization and sustainability as an anchor point to complete the transformation of their generational identity.
Why shouldn’t it be presented through NFT? What is the difference between the fat penguin and the moon bird? I don’t think it’s the lack of physical objects. The virtualization of human beings has already begun to show signs since the QQ Show era. It’s just that blockchain is not cool enough.
There is still a good opportunity now. Looking at the process of popularizing luxury goods in the West, luxury goods were popular in the 1970s and 80s. Europe and the United States entered a period of stable economic development, and the middle class needed a symbol of class distinction, preferably something that they could afford with a month's salary, but that the working class could only afford in a year.
In a binary social structure of slave/citizen and noble/commoner, such luxuries are not needed. Only in complex industrialized societies, where humanity as a whole does not need to worry about survival, is there a greater need for cultural representations.
This highlights the shift in intergenerational culture. Non-productive activities are no longer the exclusive domain of a few, and the majority are excluded from the production system. Rent-seeking becomes a specialized profession after productivity has developed.
In particular, how can Generation Z/Xiao Deng/post-05s, who have the ability to survive since birth but lack the ability to live a high-end life, coexist with the early rentiers and even subvert them to become the mother of the era? They can lick them or scold them, but they cannot do without the economic nourishment of the rentiers.
Image source: Bilibili (B站) Xisifusi-C4phus: 1065727775
While the piracy market in the East continued to thrive, Gabe Newell (GabeN) in the West also continued to exert his influence. The third-party black market for Counter-Strike players became a liability for the game, with black market merchants and speculators profiting, while GabeN himself had to bear the reputational damage when the market eventually collapsed.
Then I can only overturn the table in advance. My vassal's vassal is not my vassal, and the secondary market of my market is not my market.
In the four years I've been in this field, I've always believed that Web3 is a content creation industry, but it's currently nearing its end.
It's always the same few people, always the same few things. Of course, it's always good to have BTC, but BTC doesn't need any other subsidiary protocols. Currently, there are 0 entities that can generate two-way demand with BTC.
Image caption: Halo - Trump
Image credit: @WhiteHouse
If you don't believe in the power of creating hype, then you're underestimating your own worth. Trump has already proven the power of retail investors. Upwards, it benefits the White House; downwards, it benefits Trump's image; leftwards, it benefits Ma; rightwards, it benefits China.
I want to praise the PumpFun team again. Although they are wicked, they understand the meaning of perseverance better than Tie Shun, and they exude the vigor of youth.
Before the Solana Foundation took full control, it was the location of the most active conspiracy group. However, with the excellence of the foundation and the official guidance of concepts such as ICM and PayFi, the vibrant vitality of DeFi with flying memes and volume manipulation is no longer seen.
Although EF doesn't handle personnel matters or official business, it certainly doesn't hinder your innovative or malicious behavior. Whether it's right or wrong, its merits or demerits, is left for future generations to judge.
Conclusion
A pearl buried in the earth conceals its brilliance, but when it is unearthed, it shines with dazzling light.
Web3 now needs to put aside its arrogance. In addition to the booming and high-end concepts of institutionalization, US stocks, stablecoins, government bonds, and the increasingly out-of-control Meme and Perp leverage, it needs to leave a piece of pure land for the neutral market. There must always be something left to face the impact.
The cypherpunk movement gave rise to the concept of decentralization, giving Bitcoin and blockchain a physical register.
Amidst the confused expectations of Generation Z who are unwilling to give up, we must eventually break free from the Death Eaters and step into the Muggle world.
