Will Elon Musk set up a new political party, the American Party, in 2025? This bold idea has sparked heated discussions on the cryptocurrency betting market Polymarket, with the odds of winning soaring to 17%! At the same time, Musk and Trump's public "fight" continues to escalate, and Tesla's stock price has fluctuated violently. What is the story behind this? Let's find out!
The probability of Musk establishing a party has soared, Polymarket and X have joined forces
According to the latest data from the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, as of now, the probability of Musk founding a new political party in 2025 has surged from 7% in June to 17%, and has risen another 2% in the past 24 hours. Behind this market enthusiasm, the amount of bets has exceeded US$416 million! Polymarket clearly stated that if Musk issued a "clear" official statement, the market would judge it as "yes".
What is even more eye-catching is that Musk's X platform recently announced a formal cooperation with Polymarket, and Polymarket became the official prediction market partner of X. The powerful combination of the two parties will combine Polymarket's prediction data with X's real-time dynamics to provide users with more accurate trend insights. This also further aroused heated discussions on the possibility of Musk establishing a party.
Tips:
Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform that allows users to bet on future events using cryptocurrency, but U.S. residents are currently unable to participate due to regulatory restrictions.
Musk and Trump "fight", party-building plan surfaces
The heated debate was sparked by the escalating public dispute between Musk and former US President Trump.
- Cause of the incident: Musk accused the Trump administration of withholding documents related to Jeffrey Epstein, causing an uproar.
- Trump fights back: Trump publicly expressed his "disappointment" with Musk, calling him "crazy," and threatened to cancel federal contracts and subsidies for Musk's companies.
- Musk responded: Musk not only criticized Trump's tariff policy for "triggering a US economic recession", but also forwarded a post saying "Trump should be impeached", which was full of gunpowder.
As the two sides' "tears" escalated, Musk launched a striking vote on the X platform: "Is it time to establish a new political party in the United States that represents the 80% of centrists?"
The voting results showed that more than 5.63 million users participated, of which 80.4% supported the establishment of a new party and only 19.6% opposed. Musk immediately forwarded the results and announced that the new party will be named "The America Party", saying: "The people have spoken, and this is destiny!"
Tesla's stock price "roller coaster", the market reacted strongly
The dispute between Musk and Trump not only ignited public opinion, but also directly impacted the capital market.
- June 5: Tesla's stock price plummeted 18% due to the verbal battle between the two sides, and the decline narrowed to 14% at the close, but its market value still evaporated by about US$153 billion, setting the largest single-day drop in nearly three months.
- June 6: Tesla's stock price rebounded 4.3% in early trading on the U.S. stock market, but still failed to fully make up for the losses of the previous day.
The turmoil has made investors uncertain about Musk's business empire and political trends, and has also added more drama to the potential establishment of the "American Party".
“American Party” Vision: Representing 80% of centrists?
Musk proposed that the core idea of the "American Party" is to represent the "middle 80%" group and try to break the traditional pattern of the two-party system in the United States. This idea has sparked widespread discussion:
- Supporters believe that Musk's influence and resources could promote a new party centered on rationality, science and innovation, attracting centrist voters who are tired of traditional politics.
- Opponents questioned: Building a party requires a huge organization and financial support, and Musk’s controversial remarks and conflict with Trump may weaken his political appeal.
In any case, Musk's idea of the "American Party" has undoubtedly dropped a bombshell on American politics.
Will Musk take the first step towards building a party?
Although the dispute between Musk and Trump showed a brief sign of "reconciliation" on the evening of the 5th, Trump again called Musk "crazy" the next day, and the relationship between the two sides remained tense. Will Musk's plan to build a party turn from a fantasy of voting on the X platform into reality? Polymarket's 17% probability may be just the beginning.
At the same time, the cooperation between X and Polymarket will provide us with more real-time data and insights into the direction of this event. Musk's next move, whether it is to continue to "fight" Trump or to formally prepare for the "American Party", will become the global focus in 2025.
Conclusion
From a tech giant to a rising political star, Musk's every move has attracted global attention. Is his idea of an "American Party" a sudden whim or a well-thought-out strategy? Let's wait and see!
What do you think?
Do you think Musk will actually create the American Party in 2025? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
Do you want Musk to form a party?
