Musk "talks down the old man"

SpaceX's mega-IPO is about to take place, pushing Musk's net worth to a trillion dollars, while early allies reap hundreds of times the returns. However, with Wall Street relaxing index rules, the biggest "old man crash" game in history is officially underway, using the index as a pretext.

Author: Nancy, PANews

As the storage sector went on a killing spree, with Micron and SK Hynix both surpassing the trillion-dollar market capitalization mark, Musk himself was also rapidly building a trillion-dollar fortune.

SpaceX, with its record-breaking valuation, is accelerating its journey to the capital market. This mega-IPO, which could rewrite wealth history, is propelling Musk to become the world's first trillionaire and allowing early allies to reap astonishing returns of hundreds or even thousands of times.

However, if this most expensive space narrative in human history is to continue, it will eventually need new footholds. With massive pension funds being "forced to buy in," Americans' retirement savings are becoming the fuel for Musk's space dream.

Musk is making retired American seniors "explode in gold coins".

The countdown to the biggest IPO in history has begun, and early allies are making a fortune.

Wall Street has been waiting for SpaceX to go public for many years.

Over the past decade, this company has grown from a startup valued at only $27 million to a super unicorn with a valuation approaching $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, becoming one of the world's most valuable private companies.

Now, this mega-IPO is finally set to officially list as early as June 12th. This is not only the largest IPO in human history, but it also signifies the moment when the wealth feast will begin to materialize. Musk's long-time followers are finally reaping substantial rewards.

For example, Google may become the biggest external winner through its early investments. As of the end of 2025, it held approximately 6.11% of SpaceX's shares. Its initial investment of only $900 million is now worth nearly $120 billion. Valor Equity Partners, as the second-largest shareholder after Musk, holds over 500 million SpaceX Class A shares, with an equity value between $90 billion and $140 billion. Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, through multiple rounds of additional investment, holds approximately 3.5% of the shares, with a paper profit exceeding $60 billion. Fidelity, as one of the main institutions that jointly invested in 2015, holds shares worth approximately $35 billion. Even Sequoia Capital, a relatively late entrant, has seen substantial returns, expected to gain over $20 billion.

As for Musk himself, he is also expected to become the world's first trillionaire.

In a recent report, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warned that once mega-IPOs like SpaceX and OpenAI are completed, the weighting of tech stocks in benchmark stock indices will easily exceed approximately 48%, surpassing the market concentration levels of all major bubble periods in history, including the Roaring Tide of the 1920s, the Nifty Fifty of the 1970s, the Japanese bubble of the 1980s, and the dot-com bubble of the 1990s.

However, with such a huge valuation, who will ultimately take over?

To reduce post-IPO selling pressure and maintain stock price stability, SpaceX has made certain adjustments. For example, insider shares will be subject to a phased unlocking mechanism, rather than the uniform 6-month lock-up period common in traditional IPOs. The company has also approved a 1-for-5 stock split to lower the psychological barrier for retail investors and improve liquidity. Musk has publicly stated that he will not sell any SpaceX shares.

However, market concerns have not disappeared. Leaving aside the uncertainties of the grand Mars narrative, looking solely at the financial data, SpaceX remains a rapidly burning cash company. The prospectus shows that in the first quarter of 2026 alone, SpaceX's net loss approached $4.3 billion, almost equivalent to the entire previous year's losses. Meanwhile, Musk controls 85% of the absolute voting rights, meaning the board is virtually unable to dismiss him, and external shareholders have virtually no control over any major business decisions.

To some extent, SpaceX is a highly Musk-like company, with its valuation, governance, and even future prospects deeply tied to Musk himself.

Once all the early investors have made a fortune, who would be willing to buy this ridiculously expensive spaceship ticket at a high price?

Wall Street is paving the way for rapid index growth, leaving US pension funds as the "bagholders."

Americans’ pensions may become a potential fuel for Musk’s space dream.

Wall Street has begun to open a fast track for mega IPOs. On May 1st of this year, new Nasdaq rules officially took effect, allowing newly listed companies with a market capitalization ranking in the top 40 of the Nasdaq 100 index to be included in the index in just 15 trading days, whereas previously it usually took about 3 months.

S&P also launched a consultation in May, proposing to shorten the minimum listing time required for inclusion from 12 months to 6 months, and considering exempting mega-cap companies from profitability requirements. FTSE Russell has also relaxed restrictions, allowing large IPOs to be quickly evaluated for inclusion in the Russell US Equity Indexes (including the Russell 1000, Top 200, etc.) on the fifth trading day after listing, without waiting for quarterly review.

The quiet relaxation of rules by major US indices is undoubtedly paving the way for SpaceX.

According to Business Insider, SpaceX may be quickly included in mainstream indices and ETFs after its IPO, with passive fund allocation potentially far exceeding that of previous large IPOs. For example, the CRSP index, which corresponds to Vanguard VTI and the growth ETF VUG, could be included as early as five trading days after SpaceX's listing; the Nasdaq 100 index, which is tracked by QQQ, could be included as early as 15 trading days after SpaceX's listing; and the S&P 500 index, which is tracked by SPY, may include SpaceX in 2027 after rule changes.

In the US retirement system, a large number of 401(k), pension funds, and long-term savings accounts employ passive index investment strategies. These funds typically allocate assets automatically according to the index's constituent stocks and their market capitalization weights.

This strategy originated from the first index fund for ordinary investors launched by John Bogle, the godfather of index funds, in 1976. Its core principle is to "replicate the market, not beat the market." With extremely low management fees and high diversification, it has become the preferred allocation method for retirement funds and 401(k) accounts. To date, total retirement assets in the United States have exceeded $49 trillion.

This means that once SpaceX is included in the index, all funds tracking these benchmarks will be forced to buy it based on its weight, without analyzing valuations, judging bubbles, or even caring whether the company is profitable .

However, this game has sparked strong discontent within the pension system.

Not long ago, the American Federation of Teachers sent a letter to the SEC urging it to strengthen its scrutiny of SpaceX’s IPO, warning that workers’ life savings could be controlled by a company that is more like Musk’s family business than a transparent public company .

Meanwhile, the three major U.S. public pension funds (CalPERS, the New York State and New York City pension systems) that manage over $1 trillion in assets also jointly wrote to Musk, strongly opposing SpaceX's extreme governance structure, including super voting rights, a veto power over the removal of its CEO, and the right to be immune from lawsuits.

They pointed out that Musk's simultaneous management of multiple companies, including SpaceX, Tesla, xAI, and Neuralink, creates a significant risk due to his dispersed focus. The letter demanded that SpaceX gradually transition to a one-share-one-vote system over the next seven years, establish a board of directors with a majority of external shareholders, separate the CEO and chairman roles, and remove Musk's veto power.

This rule change, tailored by Wall Street for mega-IPOs, ultimately tied the retirement savings of tens of millions of Americans to Musk's grand space dreams. After early investors reaped hundreds of times their returns, the remaining costs of "taking over" were passed on to passive investors who were powerless to make their own choices.

The biggest "old man crashing" game in history is officially kicking off under the guise of an index.

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Author: Nancy

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