Trading Moment: BTC faces both 73,000 and 67,000 CME gaps, with 69,000 becoming a key test.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

After 21 hours of unsuccessful peace talks in Islamabad over the weekend, and with Vice President Vance and his special envoy leaving, Trump announced a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting at 10 p.m. Beijing time on April 13, cutting off approximately 1.7 million barrels of crude oil exports from Iran daily. However, the US military later provided further clarification regarding Trump's "blockade," stating that it would target ships entering and leaving Iranian ports.

Markets reacted with a decline, with futures for all three major indices falling. Last week, the Nasdaq had risen for five consecutive days, surging 4.68% for the week. This fragile "peace dividend" is now facing a severe test. Goldman Sachs strategist Shreeti Kapa stated that geopolitical shocks typically trigger an 8% pullback in the S&P 500, and the risk-reward ratio for equities is extremely unfavorable in the absence of a complete agreement. Asian stock markets were also affected. Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell more than 1% to 56,579.66 points at one point, South Korea's KOSPI index opened sharply lower by more than 2%, and the A-share market also came under pressure amid a sell-off.

Meanwhile, commodity markets fluctuated wildly due to concerns about energy supply. Brent crude futures jumped 9% to $103.86 a barrel, WTI crude surged over 10% to $105.63 a barrel, and European natural gas futures soared 18% in a single day. Nick Twidale, an analyst at AT Global Markets, pointed out that shipping volumes in the Strait of Hormuz are currently still below 10% of normal levels. Brett Erickson of Obsidian criticized Washington's economic response as out of touch with reality, warning that it could push the global economy into a deep recession.

In addition, the US CPI rose to 3.3% year-on-year in March , while the core CPI rose to 2.6% year-on-year. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut have been postponed to mid-2027, and inflation concerns have intensified again.

Bitcoin price

Amidst escalating geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin failed to hold above $73,000, falling over 3% yesterday and breaking below the $71,000 mark. Currently, Bitcoin faces CME gaps at $73,000 and $67,000 respectively. Holding the $69,000 support level is crucial to maintaining the bullish structure. A break below this support could see the price fall further to the $67,000 CME gap or even the $65,000-$66,000 range. Conversely, a break and hold above the $73,000 CME gap could potentially lead to a test of the $76,000 area.

Bearish view

With tightening macro liquidity and geopolitical energy shocks combined, and technical gaps acting like a magnet, Bitcoin faces a significant downside liquidation risk in the short term.

Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone warns that the cryptocurrency bear market may have just begun, with high volatility making it lack safe-haven value and Bitcoin potentially falling back to $10,000.
Delphi Digital points out that liquidity will be a major headwind, and the current macroeconomic structure is highly similar to that of 2022, which will put downward pressure on real yields.
Doctor Profit predicts that the S&P 500 will crash by more than 35%, and that Bitcoin will encounter a bull trap after hitting $76,000, before being suppressed by market makers to the $50,000 range.
Crypto analyst Killa believes that Bitcoin needs to stay above $69,000 to maintain its bullish structure. A break below this level could see a pullback to the $65,000-$66,000 range, filling the $67,000 CME gap. A break above the $73,000 CME gap but failure to hold could lead to an earlier-than-expected weekly high.

Analyst LP stated that Bitcoin has formed a liquidation zone in the $69,000-$70,000 area. If this support holds, it could test the $73,000 CME gap and reach the upper liquidity zone of $73,000-$74,000. However, if this support breaks, it could fall back to the $67,000 CME gap and even lower to the $64,000-$65,000 liquidity zone.

bullish view

The current pullback is moderate and is a normal correction in a bull market; institutional funds are quietly accumulating shares, and the long-term fundamentals remain solid, making dollar-cost averaging the best strategy.

Axel Adler: The current maximum drawdown is far weaker than in historical bear markets, and the market is closer to a "normal correction" than a deep liquidation, far from entering a "capitulation-style decline" phase.
Murphy: Short-term trading is extremely difficult; consistent dollar-cost averaging over the next 6 months will yield a near 100% success rate. The bottom is getting closer; focus on long-term trends and avoid emotional speculation.
GugaOnChain: On-chain data shows that while retail investors are liquidating their positions in panic, institutional capital is buying heavily. Exchange balances have plummeted, revealing a "brutal wealth transfer" disguised as macroeconomic panic.
Liquid Capital: We maintain that a peace agreement will eventually be reached; continue to wait for the rebound and do not stop taking profits. If a financial crisis does return, it will be an excellent opportunity to verify Bitcoin's safe-haven properties and to buy at the bottom.

Market Dynamics

Several Wall Street firms have lowered their earnings forecasts for crypto companies like Coinbase due to declining trading volumes and falling token prices. Barclays downgraded Coinbase's rating, predicting a roughly 30% quarter-over-quarter decline in trading volume and a drop in total revenue to $1.48 billion in the first quarter. Oppenheimer Bank lowered its trading volume forecast for Coinbase to $211 billion and also reduced its revenue forecast. Compass Point and Rosenblatt followed suit, downgrading Circle and Bullish, respectively.

Polkadot (DOT) was attacked today due to a vulnerability, resulting in the minting and dumping of over 1 billion tokens and a 5% price crash. Polkadot subsequently responded that the Hyperbridge vulnerability only affected DOT bridged to Ethereum, and that the security of native DOT and the ecosystem was unaffected. Hyperbridge is currently suspended.

Furthermore, the RAVE project appears to be manipulated, with its price approaching $10. It surged from $0.227 in April to a peak of $9.88, an increase of over 42 times, with its market capitalization reaching $2.4 billion at one point . "Binance Life" also experienced dramatic fluctuations after the release of CZ's new book, with its market capitalization peaking at $220 million. In the past 24 hours, it has risen by over 40%. Analyst Yu Jin stated that in the past 20 hours, $9.37 million of "Binance Life" was withdrawn from Binance by suspected manipulators through six wallets. Currently, these wallets collectively hold approximately 11.7% of the total supply on-chain. The GIGGLE token, associated with CZ, has also risen by 35% in the past 24 hours.

Key data (as of 13:00 HKT on April 13)

(Data source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: Net inflows of $786 million last week
Ethereum ETF: Net inflows of $187 million last week
SOL ETF: Net outflow of $5.62 million
XRP ETF: Net inflow of $11.75 million last week
Fear of Greed Index: 12 (Extreme Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: DRIFT, BTC, ETH, XRP, 0G
Sector Performance: Most crypto stocks rose, with AI and Meme sectors remaining relatively strong, while BTC and ETH saw slight pullbacks.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 96,097 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $131 million, including $29.39 million in BTC liquidations, $22.34 million in ETH liquidations, and $2.8 million in SOL liquidations.

Today's Outlook

The U.S. military will blockade maritime traffic at Iranian ports starting at 10 p.m. on April 13.
Binance Alpha will list Genius Foundation (GENIUS) on April 13.
Sources: The Senate hearing for Federal Reserve Chair nominee Warsh is expected to take place as early as the week of April 13.
Binance will launch a spot price range protection mechanism on April 14 to prevent abnormal price transactions.
Market news: Apple Business will launch on April 14th.
Meme Coin Trump: The luncheon leaderboard event ends on April 14th.
Reports indicate that GPT-6 may be released on April 14th.
IEA releases monthly oil market report (April 14, 16:00)
US March Government Budget (USD billion): Previous value -3075 (April 14, 02:00)

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: RaveDAO up 141%, Stable up 9.1%, Aave up 8.8%, NEAR Protocol up 4%, and MemeCore up 3.3%.